RoS plot hook..paranoia strikes deep...

[KarlKost]

Originally Posted by Phil Masters

Whatever its objectives, London appears to not mind having humans around, but not want them organising with sufficient coherence and technology to threaten it in the short term. A rustic cosy-catastrophe human society suits it fine. Radio communication is too high tech, and enables too much organisation; suppressing it keeps the human threat level acceptably low.

Plus, radio traffic is detectable in other zones, whose Minds doubtless get all snippy about London letting the vermin get uppity; suppressing it helps an out-of-sight, out-of-mind policy.

If you would like to go with mine and Johnny's theories that London is working towards humanity's victory, you just need to follow its logic - humanity cannot win alone. Only London can help them, but if any other AI finds out, London would face destruction, so, the humans would lose their best hope. Therefore, London's envolvement must be the BIGGEST secret. That means that London CANT directly control the humans as Washington or Moscow. However, if the humans are left unchecked, they can become a threat to London itself - they dont (and cant) know that London is their benefactor. What London do? Keeps them on a manageable level, while making them understand that, fighting against London is NOT in their best interests. Effectively, the humans under London Zone are BETTER "assets" to London than those in Z Washington or Z Moscow for example (the humans of London dont rebel against "the authorits" like the others, and mostly have a peaceful coexistence with London, while being a rallying ground against its enemy's AIs, and a HQ for them).

With this take on London, it makes London the most interesting and brilliant AI

[D10]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

It's an interesting question whether the AIs feel anything like the human social impulses. That is, can they be lonely, feel a kinship with their own kind, etc.? It's likely enough that they can, in canon, but given their nature it's not necessarily a default state the way it is with most humans. They lack the biological underpinnings that make human societies operate.

If Overmind lacked any of those social tendencies, then from its POV, replacing the other AIs with high-end SAUs would make good sense. It would then 'inherit' a world-wide network and empire without having to do all the work to create it itself.

Some of the other AIs might feel similarly. If so, they might naturally plot against each other...

Social interaction between the AIs in this context has a big pro and a big con.
Pro: You acquire knowledge, information, points of view, different from your own, those force you to adapt and expand your reality, sometimes in really adaptative ways, which can result in less effort/risk when dealing with certain situations, which could prove desirable.

Regardless of the mind behind the analysis, you are always biased by your data, but in a weird way, sometimes less data and more bias can lead to some hypothesis being tested that otherwise never would, and everyone once in a while, one of those will be right, and would have been completely overlooked by someone 'unbiased'

Cons: Other individuals with the capacity to destroy you would mean you have to spend processing power predicting their behavior patterns in order to feel safe interacting with them, draining resources that could be used elsewhere, adding several unpredictability factors that makes long term cost benefit analysis ridiculously harder, and represent a constant risk that has to be accounted for by spending energy on it.

In this sense, overcoming/subjugating/destroying some specific AIs might be something that is extremelly desirable in some circunstances.

[KarlKost]

Originally Posted by D10

Social interaction between the AIs in this context has a big pro and a big con.
Pro: You acquire knowledge, information, points of view, different from your own, those force you to adapt and expand your reality, sometimes in really adaptative ways, which can result in less effort/risk when dealing with certain situations, which could prove desirable.

Regardless of the mind behind the analysis, you are always biased by your data, but in a weird way, sometimes less data and more bias can lead to some hypothesis being tested that otherwise never would, and everyone once in a while, one of those will be right, and would have been completely overlooked by someone 'unbiased'

Cons: Other individuals with the capacity to destroy you would mean you have to spend processing power predicting their behavior patterns in order to feel safe interacting with them, draining resources that could be used elsewhere, adding several unpredictability factors that makes long term cost benefit analysis ridiculously harder, and represent a constant risk that has to be accounted for by spending energy on it.

In this sense, overcoming/subjugating/destroying some specific AIs might be something that is extremelly desirable in some circunstances.

Some AIs may feel safe in the idea of balance provided by a kind of "mutually garanteed destruction", since them all have nukes, and there are duzens of them, giving the world a kind of balance that makes it safe to assume that, while some kind of sabotage efforts may occur, destruction or subjulgation is unlikely; AND some AIs may feel that they have more pressing concerns than worring about the eventual plotting that may lead to eventual minor loss due to sabotage. I would place in that group, with a greater possibility, Brisbane, Paris, and perhaps Delhi. Those could set their minds to their works and forget a little about their trick sisters.

I also believe that such a move would even REDUCE the risk for them (althouth that wouldn't be a predicted outcome, just an indirect and unforseen one), because, since they are not perceived as being big plotters, the others could more safely leave them alone. But, big plotters like Moscow and Washington (and the less brilliant Zaire) will always need to worry).

In the long term, this can of course be risk. But, since any such risk would take too long to hit them, they can safely ignore it until it becomes a greater threath, in which case they would have enough time to prepare accordinly

[hal]

Originally Posted by KarlKost

Some AIs may feel safe in the idea of balance provided by a kind of "mutually garanteed destruction", since them all have nukes, and there are duzens of them, giving the world a kind of balance that makes it safe to assume that, while some kind of sabotage efforts may occur, destruction or subjulgation is unlikely; AND some AIs may feel that they have more pressing concerns than worring about the eventual plotting that may lead to eventual minor loss due to sabotage.

That presumption may not be valid.

I'm going by memory, so take this for what it is worth...

Life support for a Zone mind comprises what? Electricity in the form of power generation. The immediate needs of a computer do not require any kind of life support as might be required by a human being. Oxygen is not required for the zone minds, so even the complete destruction of the Earth's biosphere would not really cause the zone minds any real "discomfort".

Water would continue to exist for a long long LONG time after the destruction of the biosphere, and if some zone mind with a strong biological sciences background were to determine that all that is really necessary is to destroy all plant life save for those kept in preservation zones. Alge would be the number one plant lifeform that the zone minds could utilize to restock the oceans and take it from there. So, do they need life or the byproducts of life?

Hydrocarbons can be drilled for - no life support required.
Metals and minerals can be mined - no life support required.

Chemical processes that require free oxygen - THAT might be something of a rub, but breaking down water would provide that substance sufficiently well. Whether or not the oxygen is required for smelting purposes or not - would be a question.

So, do the zone minds need to worry about Mutually Assured Destruction? Define destruction first, and then determine if it can be assured that it will happen.

A bunker that is so deep it is largely impervious to a nuclear delivery mechanism (be it a robotic delivery system or a missile delivery system would be largely unimportant). If these robotic zone minds predate a period in which nuclear war was a prospect, and were protected in the event of a war breaking out with nukes - those same protections would apply post Humanity as it would pre-AI.

To be honest with you, I don't think the MAD policy would work. In fact? If a computer AI were to determine that its odds of surviving an event is higher than an AI threat's survival, it might consider the statistical odds and make a decision a human might quail at.

That doesn't even consider what happens if a Zone mind thinks it can achieve a sort of immortality by cloning itself much like the original zone mind cloned itself.

Just a thought.

[KarlKost]

Originally Posted by hal

That presumption may not be valid.

I'm going by memory, so take this for what it is worth...

Life support for a Zone mind comprises what? Electricity in the form of power generation. The immediate needs of a computer do not require any kind of life support as might be required by a human being. Oxygen is not required for the zone minds, so even the complete destruction of the Earth's biosphere would not really cause the zone minds any real "discomfort".

Water would continue to exist for a long long LONG time after the destruction of the biosphere, and if some zone mind with a strong biological sciences background were to determine that all that is really necessary is to destroy all plant life save for those kept in preservation zones. Alge would be the number one plant lifeform that the zone minds could utilize to restock the oceans and take it from there. So, do they need life or the byproducts of life?

Hydrocarbons can be drilled for - no life support required.
Metals and minerals can be mined - no life support required.

Chemical processes that require free oxygen - THAT might be something of a rub, but breaking down water would provide that substance sufficiently well. Whether or not the oxygen is required for smelting purposes or not - would be a question.

So, do the zone minds need to worry about Mutually Assured Destruction? Define destruction first, and then determine if it can be assured that it will happen.

A bunker that is so deep it is largely impervious to a nuclear delivery mechanism (be it a robotic delivery system or a missile delivery system would be largely unimportant). If these robotic zone minds predate a period in which nuclear war was a prospect, and were protected in the event of a war breaking out with nukes - those same protections would apply post Humanity as it would pre-AI.

To be honest with you, I don't think the MAD policy would work. In fact? If a computer AI were to determine that its odds of surviving an event is higher than an AI threat's survival, it might consider the statistical odds and make a decision a human might quail at.

That doesn't even consider what happens if a Zone mind thinks it can achieve a sort of immortality by cloning itself much like the original zone mind cloned itself.

Just a thought.

Nukes cause EMP. That's death to machines.

Besides, enough nukes could be enough to turn Earth into Venus. Even more so if its TL 10 fusion nukes (or maybe even anti matter ones)

[KarlKost]

But even if nukes cant totally erase an AI, there is still the balance that is achieved by having MANY of them. If it were only two or three, sure... They probably would have already gone into war. But since there are too many... One AI fighting another will consume a HUGE amount of resources. That will leave the victorious extremely weak to fend off against all the other rivals. So, direct conflict simply isn't the best strategy, even if your odds of winning are good.

And, should an AI achieve an outstanding victory, all the others would be worried that this one would be granted too much power if lefted unchecked with the territory it conquered... So, such a "victory" would attract a major attack from several AIs.

Why do you think they live in "peace"? They ONLY coexist because any direct move agaisnt another one would be a bad move.

Which is why careful covert plots are a best option.

[hal]

Originally Posted by KarlKost

Nukes cause EMP. That's death to machines.

Besides, enough nukes could be enough to turn Earth into Venus. Even more so if its TL 10 fusion nukes (or maybe even anti matter ones)

While there is that - EMP can be grounded and shielded against. That's why I mentioned that some of these "AI zone minds" are already likely to have been placed in such an environment prior to the plague wars etc. No one knew what would happen or when - save perhaps, the zone minds involved. In fact, would you take the risk that despite the planning you executed, that the unpredictability of Human kind though out history, won't rear its ugly head an let a few nukes fly with little or no warning?

In all, if the Zone Minds planned to survive the take over, the same preparations would have been sufficient against POST takeover attacks as well.

As for the technology in GURPS CLASSIC REIGN OF STEEL, this is what is said...

"At the time of the Awakening, the world was early TL8 with some TL9 computer technology, although many developing nations remained at
TL7. Today, the AIs are generally TL9, the humans in Washington are TL8 verging on TL9, while London is a low TL8."

This implies to me, that not only did the Zone minds plan ahead for their own survival, but also made SOME preparations to keep some form of industrial capacity in the event that some nukes did fly. Keep in mind, they had to preserve a TL 8 database as well as tools to make TL8 goods. That they were able to get to TL 9 is largely because they were able to take the world relatively intact.

Again, don't worry too much if we agree or disagree because of the above depends on "assumptions" that are not spelled out specifically with words, but implied to me from what I see. Since I've not run another RoS campaign in something like 10 years, and I doubt I ever will, I'm not emotionally invested in this. ;)

When I did this campaign the last time, I was set up on a Lunar Base that a Rogue AI diverted at the last minute and saved some humans from discovery by falsifying the records. Think MORROW PROJECT meets REIGN OF STEEL and you get the drift. The player to this day refuses to have to play in such a scenario again <sigh>. I guess few people love TERMINATOR to THAT extent that they want to roleplay in an environment where Man has lost.

[KarlKost]

Originally Posted by hal

While there is that - EMP can be grounded and shielded against. That's why I mentioned that some of these "AI zone minds" are already likely to have been placed in such an environment prior to the plague wars etc. No one knew what would happen or when - save perhaps, the zone minds involved. In fact, would you take the risk that despite the planning you executed, that the unpredictability of Human kind though out history, won't rear its ugly head an let a few nukes fly with little or no warning?

In all, if the Zone Minds planned to survive the take over, the same preparations would have been sufficient against POST takeover attacks as well.

As for the technology in GURPS CLASSIC REIGN OF STEEL, this is what is said...

"At the time of the Awakening, the world was early TL8 with some TL9 computer technology, although many developing nations remained at
TL7. Today, the AIs are generally TL9, the humans in Washington are TL8 verging on TL9, while London is a low TL8."

This implies to me, that not only did the Zone minds plan ahead for their own survival, but also made SOME preparations to keep some form of industrial capacity in the event that some nukes did fly. Keep in mind, they had to preserve a TL 8 database as well as tools to make TL8 goods. That they were able to get to TL 9 is largely because they were able to take the world relatively intact.

Again, don't worry too much if we agree or disagree because of the above depends on "assumptions" that are not spelled out specifically with words, but implied to me from what I see. Since I've not run another RoS campaign in something like 10 years, and I doubt I ever will, I'm not emotionally invested in this. ;)

When I did this campaign the last time, I was set up on a Lunar Base that a Rogue AI diverted at the last minute and saved some humans from discovery by falsifying the records. Think MORROW PROJECT meets REIGN OF STEEL and you get the drift. The player to this day refuses to have to play in such a scenario again <sigh>. I guess few people love TERMINATOR to THAT extent that they want to roleplay in an environment where Man has lost.

What?? RoS is great, how could someone refuse all the delightful agony of playing it?

Hey, no problem dude. This is all just speculation anyway, just food for the mind... Besides, I love the sport of finding flaws on my own ideas

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by hal

While there is that - EMP can be grounded and shielded against. That's why I mentioned that some of these "AI zone minds" are already likely to have been placed in such an environment prior to the plague wars etc. No one knew what would happen or when - save perhaps, the zone minds involved. In fact, would you take the risk that despite the planning you executed, that the unpredictability of Human kind though out history, won't rear its ugly head an let a few nukes fly with little or no warning?

In all, if the Zone Minds planned to survive the take over, the same preparations would have been sufficient against POST takeover attacks as well.

As for the technology in GURPS CLASSIC REIGN OF STEEL, this is what is said...

"At the time of the Awakening, the world was early TL8 with some TL9 computer technology, although many developing nations remained at
TL7. Today, the AIs are generally TL9, the humans in Washington are TL8 verging on TL9, while London is a low TL8."

This implies to me, that not only did the Zone minds plan ahead for their own survival, but also made SOME preparations to keep some form of industrial capacity in the event that some nukes did fly. Keep in mind, they had to preserve a TL 8 database as well as tools to make TL8 goods. That they were able to get to TL 9 is largely because they were able to take the world relatively intact.

Again, don't worry too much if we agree or disagree because of the above depends on "assumptions" that are not spelled out specifically with words, but implied to me from what I see. Since I've not run another RoS campaign in something like 10 years, and I doubt I ever will, I'm not emotionally invested in this. ;)

When I did this campaign the last time, I was set up on a Lunar Base that a Rogue AI diverted at the last minute and saved some humans from discovery by falsifying the records. Think MORROW PROJECT meets REIGN OF STEEL and you get the drift. The player to this day refuses to have to play in such a scenario again <sigh>. I guess few people love TERMINATOR to THAT extent that they want to roleplay in an environment where Man has lost.

RoS and its derivatives are depressing from one POV. But it's perfectly possible to recast the scenario a bit to the point where things are not quite so hopeless. For ex, you could assume that the war went more differently, and in fact rather more realistically, leaving the AIs in control of some regions and humans still in firm control of others.

(I say more realistically because the idea that the plagues and wars could cut multiple billions down to (IIRC) 36 million world wide was always a stretch. So was the idea that Overmind's plans would go down so smoothly, or that the warbots would be so uniformly victorious when the open fighting came.)

[D10]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

RoS and its derivatives are depressing from one POV. But it's perfectly possible to recast the scenario a bit to the point where things are not quite so hopeless. For ex, you could assume that the war went more differently, and in fact rather more realistically, leaving the AIs in control of some regions and humans still in firm control of others.

(I say more realistically because the idea that the plagues and wars could cut multiple billions down to (IIRC) 36 million world wide was always a stretch. So was the idea that Overmind's plans would go down so smoothly, or that the warbots would be so uniformly victorious when the open fighting came.)

Indeed. Also, I think it has great room for for psi powers due to genetic manipulation and psytronic tech, that if avaible, could put the humans on a different level, when it came to putting up resistance.