Steve Jackson Games - Site Navigation
Home General Info Follow Us Search Illuminator Store Forums What's New Other Games Ogre GURPS Munchkin Our Games: Home

Go Back   Steve Jackson Games Forums > Roleplaying > Roleplaying in General

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
Old 09-20-2017, 10:48 AM   #1
Varyon
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Default Math Gurus - Help with Probability

So, we've got a lot of people on these boards who are pretty good with more complex probability problems (or, failing that, know how to make a quick automated system to work it out for them). So, I have an exploding d6 scheme that I like more than the typical. Rather than rolling a 6 meaning you roll again and add that to 6, I have it as rolling a 6 translates into "Roll 1d+3, minimum 6," where this roll can similarly explode (becoming "1d+9, minimum 12," and so forth). This also works on the other side, where a roll of 1 becomes "1d-3, maximum 1."

The probability for 1d is easy. 2-5 are just the normal 1/6, 1 and 6 are 1/12, -4-0 and 7-11 are 1/36 each, and so forth. I have no idea how to work out the probabilities for higher numbers of dice - particularly, 3d6, so I can determine if I want to replace the standard success roll with this exploding variant, and where the criticals should be.

I actually worked this out before, going IIRC out to only 1 "explosion" (so using dice from -5 to 9, for 3d results from -15 to 27), but did so by semi-manually working out the probabilities of each result and looking at the trend. I probably made a mistake somewhere in there, and also I've lost said spreadsheet, so I can't determine how well the rules I came up with* would actually work. Thus, I'm here asking for assistance.

*For those curious, you always need at least MoS 5 for a Critical Success, and must roll a 1 or lower for skill below 10. Higher skills have a higher threshold - 2 or lower for skill 10, 3 or lower for skill 13, 4 or lower for skill 16, and 5 or lower for skill 19 - this trend doesn't continue (5 or lower is the best you can get to). Critical Failure always occurs with MoS 10, a roll of 20 or higher is a Critical Failure with MoS 5 or worse, and a roll of 24 or higher is a Critical Failure with MoF 1 or worse. Any roll of 20 is also always at least a Failure, if not a Critical Failure. There is no "always succeeds" threshold.
__________________
GURPS Overhaul
Varyon is online now   Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Fnords are Off
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:09 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.