The economics of Faerun's Inner Sea

[ukaries]

[*]What's the minimum value of a ship's load of cargo to make it profitable to ship?

Cost of vessal + crew for 5 - 10yrs + profit margin / # of trips that can be made over 5- 10yr period. Profit margin on the venture would probly be set by the investors (guilds & such) paying for the ship. 1-15% maybe more if the market is really strong.

So: ship (1M) + crew/marines/capt. (2M) + 10% / 60 (6 trips a year for 10yrs. That's 3 their and 3 back.) = 55k or more in cargo needed

[*]What goods would be shipped by magic?

Magic would be like overnight air. Mostly all those goods that would've stayed in the Capts. quarters would go via Magic. Also any art, magic items, items of demand (i.e. the basklisk hide need for a spell), and probably spices. That would cut down on piracy, and lost or damged items, not to mention the "I have to have it now factor" goes way up.
Remember if there's money to be made then there's a fool to do it. I'm willing to bet that there would be a guild or two that specializes in magical travel. Even a small portal that would only allow one person per day would be extermely profitable. A Mage could make way more money leasing a portal than enchanting or serving a nobalman. And It'd be a hell of a lot safer than being a battlemage.

[Cernig]

Even a small portal that would only allow one person per day would be extermely profitable.

Try reading Charles Stross' "Family Trade" series for ideas on this. It also has some great ideas for any Infinite Worlds campaigns where the characters might get involved in trade between the worlds.

[pnewman]

You might want to consider crew costs. If even a low level cleric can keep your crew healthy with Create Food to avoid scurvy or Divination to warn you to take limes to avoid scurvy than fewer crew will die en route. You'll need a smaller crew on your ship and, given that they'll be assuming less risk of death, they should work for lower wages. Lower costs will lead to higher profits.

Of course the Inner Sea isn't that big, so journeys on it may not have much risk of scurvy anyway. Furthermore sailors on our world were much less likely to be attacked by 'monsters' than sailors in the Forgotten Realms are so they may already be requireing more of a risk premium on their salaries in the first place. On the gripping hand the risk may be less of a premium since their odds of being attacked by 'monsters' while at home may be greater than that of their real-world counterparts.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by pnewman

You might want to consider crew costs. If even a low level cleric can keep your crew healthy with Create Food to avoid scurvy or Divination to warn you to take limes to avoid scurvy than fewer crew will die en route.

Create Food is an inefficient way to feed sailors in the setting and doesn't prevent scurvy in any case, but lemons, limes, oranges and apples are all shipboard staples. Scurvy and disease in general aren't as big concerns as historical TL4.

Originally Posted by pnewman

You'll need a smaller crew on your ship and, given that they'll be assuming less risk of death, they should work for lower wages. Lower costs will lead to higher profits.

The Inner Sea has far more pirates than nearly any historical area has ever had. Crews have to be well-drilled and large to protect their cargo by fast sailing or fighting for it.

Originally Posted by pnewman

Of course the Inner Sea isn't that big, so journeys on it may not have much risk of scurvy anyway. Furthermore sailors on our world were much less likely to be attacked by 'monsters' than sailors in the Forgotten Realms are so they may already be requireing more of a risk premium on their salaries in the first place. On the gripping hand the risk may be less of a premium since their odds of being attacked by 'monsters' while at home may be greater than that of their real-world counterparts.

Sailors demand slightly higher salaries than were common historically. Crews are also larger and require expensive specialists to be competative.

On the other hand, magic makes navigation easier and predicts storms in advance. If no monsters or pirates interfere, sailing is quicker and straighter than historically. That goes some way towards paying off crew costs.

[Dwarfolo]

Originally Posted by Icelander

[*]If we assume that the kingdom of Cormyr has access to high-quality sapphires in staggering numbers, say perhaps tens or even hundreds of thousands of stones, how much would that depress the price of sapphires? If we assume that they have successfully kept the extent of their stockpile secret, attempt to sell through intermediaries everywhere around the Inner Sea and beyond and maintain a slow pace, how much would they have to sell in one year to have a significant effect on the price? Would a thousand stones at $25k-$150k (average $50k) each sold all around Faerun over a period of two years depress the price catastrophically?

Here some interesting thoughts on the moder gemestones market.
http://www.karensgems.com/news.html

It seems that a realistic way to go is a Cormyrean cartel, but seems as well that we lack information about market demand.
How many sapphires are demanded every year?
Moreover, considering the whole market (all over Faerun) in a period of two years is hard to say what could happen. The rate of variation of the 'global price' wouldn't be affected, because at this pace local demands would likely be covered by local suppliers in the first period, and only then (probably within 5 years) the increased (or decreased) Cormyrean supply could affect the price on a world wide scale. But again ... it all depends on the supply and demand rule.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by Dwarfolo

Here some interesting thoughts on the moder gemestones market.
http://www.karensgems.com/news.html

Thanks, that's great.

Originally Posted by Dwarfolo

It seems that a realistic way to go is a Cormyrean cartel, but seems as well that we lack information about market demand.

Limiting their cartel possibilities is the fact that they do not, in fact, control all the supply of sapphires. Sapphires can come from Murghom, Estagund and several places in the northern Sword Coast. Nowhere are they plentiful, but it's enough to keep the price of a decently sized stone at maybe $10k.

Cormyrean sapphires are clearer and fancier coloured than most other supplies of stones, so they'd command higher prices, but I'm worried how much the market would bear.

So far, Cormyr has only tapped its hidden wealth six times in the 170 years since the Crystal Grot was found. Each time, the world price of sapphires has probably gone way down, but recovered again before they next used it.

It's clear from source material that Cormyrean gems represent only a tiny fraction of the gems in circulation, even though they have the potential to flood the market.

Originally Posted by Dwarfolo

How many sapphires are demanded every year?

That's where I draw a blank. How much demand for the highest-quality sapphire can we expect from 100-200 M people at TL3-TL3+2? And how much demand from various non-human races, potential multiplanar visitors and monsters?

We know that wizards have a need for sapphires, but we don't know how much. We know that they augment enchantments and so are widely used in the making of magical swords and other magical items, especially those related to magical prowess, the mind, and the element of air. We also know that they provide partial protection from magic that causes fear, anger, despair, or insanity. Star sapphires, a rare form often found with regular ones, also have various uses in powerful protective magics.

I think it's safe to say that any enchanter can benefit from buying sapphires, to either decorate his creations and thus empower them more, or to powder and use as magical components. As long as top-quality sapphires cost less than about a $100k for a large stone to set in a sword-hilt and less than $10k/per carat, they'll be profitable for anyone wishing to make a magical item of more than 3000 FP. If the price is half of that (which is about the current market value), any wizard wanting to make an item of 1500 FP will do well to buy sapphires.

At progressively cheaper rates, the power threshold for items is lesser. If sapphires dropped to $1k/carat, they'd be economically viable for relatively minor items of 300 FP.

It may be relevant to note that the Slow and Sure enchantment method in Faerun is faster than in standard GURPS. An apprentice enchanter can load maybe 3/day FP, any kind of enchanter in business for himself is closer to 5/day and with the right conditions, a master enchanter can exceed 15/day. Rare and magical materials can also add the raw magic inherent in them, for an effective boost of hundreds of FP, sometimes.

So, how much demand is there?

Originally Posted by Dwarfolo

Moreover, considering the whole market (all over Faerun) in a period of two years is hard to say what could happen. The rate of variation of the 'global price' wouldn't be affected, because at this pace local demands would likely be covered by local suppliers in the first period, and only then (probably within 5 years) the increased (or decreased) Cormyrean supply could affect the price on a world wide scale. But again ... it all depends on the supply and demand rule.

Gemstones are expensive enough to make teleporting them profitable. That means that the 'local' market is effectively pretty big.

The modern market should be instructive, since divinations and teleport aren't much different from mass communication and airmail, at least not when the commodity is this expensive.

[robertsconley]

I would look at the following sources

For Micro economics of Medievel ships and trading the best is
Columba Games Pilot Almanac. It give you trade rules, ship handling rules, merchant rules, and ship construction rules based on solid research.

http://www.columbiagames.com/cgi-bin...roduct_id=4002

Like Traveller and Space rules you could extrapolate up to find out the macro economic figures you are interested in.

Also you could ask the people at http://www.harnforum.com about the macro economics of trade. I do know that shipping by sea is an order of magnitude cheaper than by land giving a huge advantage to littoral cultures.

Here is some fan material on trade for Harn

http://www.columbiagames.com/HarnPag...economics.html

One of the sources is a file big burthern that deals with large quantities of cargo. http://www.columbiagames.com/HarnPag.../cargolot.html

Here is a rule system attempting to calculate the market size of any settlement. http://www.columbiagames.com/HarnPag...cs/market.html



Also Expeditous Retreat Press make a superb series of handbooks that applies gives rules systems for d20 that details historical medieval society.

This Magical Medieval Society http://e23.sjgames.com/item.html?id=XRP1008
and this Magical Society: Silk Road http://e23.sjgames.com/item.html?id=XRP1005 of the two Silk Road is probably the most useful.

Finally http://www.lythia.com has numerous fan articles on various aspect of Harn life including trade that is applicble to any fantasy campaign wanting realistic rule systems.

This should get you started

Enjoy
Rob Conley

[robertsconley]

Another excellent trade primer from another harn fan.

http://harn-fan.net/alienage/alienage.htm

[robertsconley]

Unlike Traveller it is hard to come up with a general set of rules for macro trade issues in a medieval fantasy world. Because much of it depends on local factors.

Basically you need to know what resources are where. Then you need to draw trade routes emanating outwards from the various resource sources. The layout of trade routes will suggest where the great trading fairs are and what cities the merchants congregate in. Then you need to adjust the trade routes so that they flow through said centers of trade. Finally you need to realize that many goods are seasonal thus effecting the volume of trade in any given year.

One thing is that given a large enough population you are likely to find a market for anything that isn't locally produced.

Funneling the local output of food crops to the nearest town or city is of major importance. The larger the settlement more important this becomes. Cities the size of Rome may be drawing food from all over the known world. (i.e. the Egyptian Grain Supply)

Most trade that is exploitable by PCs would be the luxury trade. Valuable items in small quantities (hundreds of pounds at best)

Plus by the High Middle Ages (which the Forgotten Realms is definitely in the midst of) there is plenty of Commerical paper including Promissory Notes, Bills of Lading, etc.

This give an excellent example of what goes on.

http://www.columbiagames.com/resourc...notarius.shtml

I successfully used elements of this in my GURPS Campaign particularly Promissory Notes.

Note there is one confusing part in the example

Gerd goes to the various farmers and buys their wool, spending his entire 2,000d. He gives each farmer a Bill of Exchange drawn on Ygarth, which is backed by the Bill of Debt. Each time a Bill of Exchange is made backed by the Bill of Debt, the Notarius makes a mark on the Bill of Debt to show that much credit used. The Farmers, who have come to town to transport the wool, go to Ygarth and cash their Bills (some may get Bills of Debt themselves, but that is another story).

There is likely a market the day the farmers are in town. During a Market Day the Notarius is avaliable to Gerd and anybody else who needs a commerical transaction done. Along with the other fees mention there are the fees levied by the market to be allowed to sell there.

What Gerd doesn't do is go out to the manors and farms and does business there. Not only there is no Notarius avaliable to seal anything it is probably illegal as well as Market rights were rigorously enforced by the King and nobles. They were a great source of revenue.

[Ramidel]

Honestly, I think Thay is better looked at, not as a quasi-Renaissance kingdom, but as a kingdom undergoing the magical equivalent of an industrial revolution.

After all, the way the Red Wizards work, an average Wizard can spend his entire life enchanting the same kind of item for years and years, and there are a lot of that kind of one-trick-pony wizards. Thay can sell healing potions and +1 swords till the sky falls, and have enough real wizards to do custom work.

Question, Ice: What fluff are you using to replace XP costs of magic items?