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Old 12-30-2010, 03:16 AM   #1
Wicked Lurker
 
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Default Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Landwalker View Post
As far as other tactics go, making opponents harder to bring down (through good defenses and/or armor) may encourage players to Evaluate, in order to do build up a bonus for something like Deceptive Attack or a Targeted Attack to a more vulnerable, but penalized, hit location (like the hand).
So far I have not yet found a use for evaluate and actually think it's useless in most situations.

Consider the the alternatives:
A Skill-12 warrior attacks some adversary.

1) choose evaluate, attack next round: one attack at skill 13. probability of success 0.84
2) choose attack and also attack next round: 1-((1-0.74)^2). probability of success 0.93

So only at effective skill 4 is an evaluate followed by an attack better than two successive attacks. At skill 5 the two attacks are already better (according to a quick calculation)

The only situation in which I can imagine evaluate being useful is when your opponent does not see you.. but then still telegraphic attack is the better option given that you could be detected any second, being that close - and if you can't a hefty TDM is in place anyway making the hit almost automatic.
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Old 12-30-2010, 03:51 AM   #2
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

What if those 2 attacks were stopped by active or passive defences?
Evaluate to increase your effective skill and choose an attack that has better chance of defeating that defence. eg feint or deceptive attack or targeted attack or armour chinks.
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Old 12-30-2010, 04:43 AM   #3
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

In any of these situations attacking two times gives a higher chance of landing a blow than attacking once with +1 to skill (see calculation above) unless your effective skill drops to 4 or below.

As an additional note: The chance of NOT being able to deliver the attack after evaluate is also higher. The other guy might disable or wound/shock his opponent in the first blow already, eliminating the threat.
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Old 12-30-2010, 07:54 AM   #4
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

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Originally Posted by Wicked Lurker View Post
In any of these situations attacking two times gives a higher chance of landing a blow than attacking once with +1 to skill (see calculation above) unless your effective skill drops to 4 or below.

As an additional note: The chance of NOT being able to deliver the attack after evaluate is also higher. The other guy might disable or wound/shock his opponent in the first blow already, eliminating the threat.
You are absolutely and demonstrably right. "Evaluate" is basically useless, and often counterproductive. Those who argue otherwise, clearly don't have the slightest idea of how probabilities work. It is quite shocking that many people still fail to realize Evaluate is useless and propose flawed justifications to say it is useful (e.g. thulben argued that you can effectively lower your opponent's defenses by 1 if you Evaluate for 2 turns before attacking... but it is clearly more effective to attack three times, or to Feint & Attack.)

GURPS Martial Arts in some way acknowledged Evaluate's uselessness, and tried to make it better by adding the "reduce penalties caused by Feints/Deceptive attacks" bit. Even so, it is useless and counterproductive 90% of the times.

Those who want to make Evaluate a real tactical option, not just something you do when your enemy is too distant and you don't want to Move&Attack, usually adopt one or more of the following houserules:

- Evaluate grants +2 instead of +1
(each turn). Evaluate might still be statistically counterproductive in some instances, but it does lessen the problem.

- Evaluate grants +1 to your own defenses
(as if it were a "Defensive Attack" maneuver). Evaluating an enemy seems a more cautious choice than directly attacking him, and this caoutiosness should be reflected in game terms. I think this is the realistic explanation on why fighters often Evaluate in real life (because they feel they would expose themselves more, if they attacked each turn).
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Old 12-30-2010, 08:32 AM   #5
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

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Originally Posted by Lupo View Post
...adopt one or more of the following houserules:

- Evaluate grants +2 instead of +1
(each turn). Evaluate might still be statistically counterproductive in some instances, but it does lessen the problem.

- Evaluate grants +1 to your own defenses
(as if it were a "Defensive Attack" maneuver). Evaluating an enemy seems a more cautious choice than directly attacking him, and this caoutiosness should be reflected in game terms. I think this is the realistic explanation on why fighters often Evaluate in real life (because they feel they would expose themselves more, if they attacked each turn).
No reason not to allow both. Amass your choice of attack and defense bonuses. One might do either +1/+2 as you suggest, or make it a mirror of AoA, which allows +4 to hit in exchange for giving up defenses for a turn.

+2 to +4 for a turn of "no-action" is pretty good. Maybe too good, though, since that's basically an auto-success on a Feint QC by 4.
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Old 12-30-2010, 06:53 PM   #6
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

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Originally Posted by DouglasCole View Post
No reason not to allow both. Amass your choice of attack and defense bonuses. One might do either +1/+2 as you suggest, or make it a mirror of AoA, which allows +4 to hit in exchange for giving up defenses for a turn.

+2 to +4 for a turn of "no-action" is pretty good. Maybe too good, though, since that's basically an auto-success on a Feint QC by 4.
One thing to consider?

A quick contest is NOT the same die rolling game mechanic as a normal "attack". Why not just disallow using "evaluate" as a function of "feints" or anything else that uses quick contests entirely?

Also? What are the cumulative odds of rolling a crit failure in say - three successive attacks (which unfortunately, is also balanced by the crit success odds in three consecutive attacks)?

What might be worth the while is that Evaluate, once "won", isn't lost on a turn by turn basis. If you do a feint in a particular fashion, and your opponent responds by rote in a specific fashion - that "understanding" of his weakness doesn't evaporate.

Proposal:
When utilizing evaluate as an option, one must utilize a perception based tactics roll to determine a pattern within that fighter's style. Familiarity with that style of fighting grants a +1 bonus to the perception based roll. Until the opponent takes a deceptive attack option against you, that +1 bonus gained via Evaluate becomes permanent for the duration of that battle. The reason for the deceptive attack being required is that the opponent must be consciously trying NOT to use his rote attacks or rote defenses while fighting.

It takes 2 successful evaluates to gain a +1 bonus. It takes 4 successful evaluates to gain a +2 bonus, and 9 successful evaluates to gain a +3. These evaluates may occur at a distance (not within one turn's worth of combat movement and attack range) equal to IQ yards, with perception.

These bonuses may be made permanent if a player invests 1 point in "fighting style of X" as a quirk. When you practice with someone over a period of time, you become familiar with their quirks and their tempo - as well as their style of combat. Since a single point is worth about 200 hours of study, this doesn't seem to be TOO out of line with practicing with a particular foe over a long period of time.
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Old 12-30-2010, 02:15 PM   #7
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

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Originally Posted by Lupo View Post
You are absolutely and demonstrably right. "Evaluate" is basically useless, and often counterproductive. Those who argue otherwise, clearly don't have the slightest idea of how probabilities work. It is quite shocking that many people still fail to realize Evaluate is useless and propose flawed justifications to say it is useful (e.g. thulben argued that you can effectively lower your opponent's defenses by 1 if you Evaluate for 2 turns before attacking... but it is clearly more effective to attack three times, or to Feint & Attack.)
If your opponent is skilled in Counter-Attack or makes a lot of ripostes, attacking every turn is a bad idea. Similarly, if you're a medium encumbered knight fighting against someone who has a wicked good beat, attacking every turn is also bad, as it gives him a perfect opportunity to beat your shield or sword(you block with shield, he beats, he parries, he beats).

If you use Feints, against a similarly skilled opponent, evaluating for three turns, then launching a devastating feint + attack(possibly with a riposte mixed in for even MORE awesome) that will be difficult to defend against.

If your opponent has credible defenses(for example, Basic speed 6, Combat Reflexes, Shield 14, a large shield and a weapon), attacking EVERY turn isn't necessarily going to be effective: with a block of 13 + retreat, it's likely that you won't be able to get through your opponents defences without a feint or deceptive attack. Evaluate lets you get higher skill levels.

I know I've created a number of fighters who were built along the idea of using high defense(for example, Staff + heavy spear in defensive grip) and counter-attacks for openings. When Erik has a defensive skill of 16-17+ and has very high levels in the counter-attack technique, bad things can happen: you attempt to hit me, I parry(Easily), and then set up an arm lock with my spear. Now your arm is broken and you can't fight.

Evaluate is also useful for fights where something unexpected may happen. If you're fighting an unarmed thug who pulls a weapon, getting a bonus to your observation roll to see it can be the difference between life and death.

Attacking every turn is great..if you can do it with no cost. If you use an unbalanced weapon, for example, it's not a great idea: you lose your secondary defense system, which allows rapid-strikes and all-out(double) to bypass your shield and get to you, and your only defense at that point is a dodge, which because of encumbrance is penalized. In this case, evaluating for a few turns is a big deal, as it allows you to make one attack, make it count, and win the battle.

The bonus defense against feints and deceptive attacks is also great: 1 turn of evaluate effectively cancels 2 points of skill for your opponent's deceptive attacks. Again, if you use the defensive techniques, it's very possible to have a character who is virtually immune to enemy attack: Again, I cite my spear-fighter Erik who would routinely use Evaluate to prevent Deceptive attacks from lowering his skill(he already had an extremely high feint skill as well), and Erik would happily parry, parry, parry, parry, parry, feint, arm-lock, break arm, through you to the ground and stab you in the throat with a telegraphic all-out attack once you are on the ground.

Evaluate can also be used while advancing toward an opponent who is distant(like 4-5 yards), as you can evaluate as you walk forward. Your opponent is limited to either a move-and-attack(penalties to defense and attack) or All-out attack(about 3 hexes of movement and NO defense), or he can walk towards you.

The probabilities are great, in a vacuum when attacking carries no negative repercussions. But once other combat options are in use, attacking can be a bad idea.

My one house rule has been to allow waits to automatically translate into evaluates, much like aiming.
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Old 12-31-2010, 04:36 AM   #8
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

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Originally Posted by thulben View Post
However, sometimes the situation calls for needing to make your first hit count. Or you're a sneaky thief and you're doing your Evaluate from the shadows, giving yourself the opportunity to do a one hit kill instead of engaging in a three-second skirmish in which you're making a lot of noise and drawing your prey's friends' attention.
Ok, under these assumptions, I obviously agree with you. I'll point out this is a very specific set of assumptions: basically you are saying that Evaluate becomes an option when it is your only option.
If you cannot, or don't want to, attack, then of course Evaluating is better than doing nothing.

Note, however, that in many cases even the "sneaky thief" won't choose to Evaluate; if you are using an actual battle map with walls, rocks, whatever, the sneaky thief will often find more useful to stealthily Move behind a corner, or Wait for his opponent to pass closer to him.

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Originally Posted by Anaraxes View Post
Sounds to me more like All-Out Defense (or Defensive Attack) than Evaluate.
So you don't believe that "realistically", it would be very reasonable if Evaluate were less risky than a direct attack? Think about football (soccer) matches, when teams evaluate each other instead of pressing their attack...

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Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
If your opponent is skilled in Counter-Attack or makes a lot of ripostes, attacking every turn is a bad idea. Similarly, if you're a medium encumbered knight fighting against someone who has a wicked good beat, attacking every turn is also bad, as it gives him a perfect opportunity to beat your shield or sword(you block with shield, he beats, he parries, he beats).
The fact that Evaluate becomes (somewhat) useful only if your opponent has a "wicked good beat" or some other specialized techniques, kind of proves my point that Evaluate is of little use...

Even then, Feint and then Attack will (usually) be better than Evaluating and then Attack. If your opponent is so good that Feinting is not enough, chances are you will be defeated, with or without Evaluating...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
If you use Feints, against a similarly skilled opponent, evaluating for three turns, then launching a devastating feint + attack(possibly with a riposte mixed in for even MORE awesome) that will be difficult to defend against.
No, you are mistaken. If you Evaluate for three turns and then Feint against a similarly skilled opponent, you are allowing him FIVE attacks before you even attempt your attack. It is quite likely you will be hit before you can finish your "devastating" combo.
Note that with skill 16+, if your opponent attacks five times, he has a cumulative chance of 35% of delivering at least 1 critical hit...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
If your opponent has credible defenses(for example, Basic speed 6, Combat Reflexes, Shield 14, a large shield and a weapon), attacking EVERY turn isn't necessarily going to be effective: with a block of 13 + retreat, it's likely that you won't be able to get through your opponents defences without a feint or deceptive attack. Evaluate lets you get higher skill levels.
I totally agree on the usefulness of feints and deceptive attacks. This has nothing to do with Evaluate; if you Evaluate, you will lose the chance of trying a Feint.
Evaluate and Feint can be used together, but basically they are competing options and there is no "sinergy" between them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
I know I've created a number of fighters who were built along the idea of using high defense(for example, Staff + heavy spear in defensive grip) and counter-attacks for openings. When Erik has a defensive skill of 16-17+ and has very high levels in the counter-attack technique, bad things can happen: you attempt to hit me, I parry(Easily), and then set up an arm lock with my spear. Now your arm is broken and you can't fight.
This proves that Counter attack is useful... not Evaluate...
Against such an opponent, I would usually try "extreme" Deceptive attacks (e.g., reducing my skill to 10, the minimum allowed) rather than wasting turns to Evaluate.

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Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
Evaluate is also useful for fights where something unexpected may happen. If you're fighting an unarmed thug who pulls a weapon, getting a bonus to your observation roll to see it can be the difference between life and death.
I am sorry to be blunt, but it seems to me you are making stuff up just for the sake of argument :)
Are you really saying that in a GURPS fight it is a good tactical choice to Evaluate to get a bonus to Observation rolls?
Of course it is a good idea if Observation is the only thing you care about... but in any other situation, it's a waste of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
Attacking every turn is great..if you can do it with no cost. If you use an unbalanced weapon, for example, it's not a great idea: you lose your secondary defense system, which allows rapid-strikes and all-out(double) to bypass your shield and get to you, and your only defense at that point is a dodge, which because of encumbrance is penalized.
Using unbalanced weapons in GURPS is not a great idea in the first place. In my experience, it is only done for roleplaying choice, not for usefulness (e.g.; "my character is a big, bad barbarian so he uses a huge axe", which is a nice character concept but has little place in a discussion about tactical effectiveness).

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Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
In this case, evaluating for a few turns is a big deal, as it allows you to make one attack, make it count, and win the battle.
Only if you are very lucky. The chances that Evaluating for 1 turn makes the difference between success and failure are minimal; usually about 10%, and sometimes about 5%.
Evaluating significantly improves your chances of succeeding only under a very specific set of assumptions: e.g., your effective skill is 10, and you Evaluate 2 turns (in which case your chance of success improves by 24%, which is probably less than your opponent's chances of hitting you in the 3 turns you use to prepare your "combo").

Quote:
Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
Again, I cite my spear-fighter Erik who would routinely use Evaluate to prevent Deceptive attacks from lowering his skill(he already had an extremely high feint skill as well), and Erik would happily parry, parry, parry, parry, parry, feint, arm-lock, break arm, through you to the ground and stab you in the throat with a telegraphic all-out attack once you are on the ground.
I take your word that Erik is a very effective build, and against him Evaluate could be a good idea. This doesn't mean that Evaluate is generally useful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Verjigorm View Post
My one house rule has been to allow waits to automatically translate into evaluates, much like aiming.
:)
So you do admit to have houseruled Evaluate because you felt it was useless :)

Your "one house rule" is a quite significant one, if in your games Wait subsume Evaluate, then fighters have no need to Evaluate, they will always Wait... this makes our whole debate meaningless.

It's like I said: "Maul is an inferior weapon when compared to Greatsword"
And you responded: "Not in my game world, where the main opponents are immune to cutting attacks, and as an house rule, I allow "Excellent" Mauls for +2 damage"
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Old 12-30-2010, 09:20 PM   #9
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lupo View Post
Those who argue otherwise, clearly don't have the slightest idea of how probabilities work. It is quite shocking that many people still fail to realize Evaluate is useless and propose flawed justifications to say it is useful (e.g. thulben argued that you can effectively lower your opponent's defenses by 1 if you Evaluate for 2 turns before attacking... but it is clearly more effective to attack three times, or to Feint & Attack.)
If role playing were just about numbers, I'd agree with you. However, sometimes the situation calls for needing to make your first hit count. Or you're a sneaky thief and you're doing your Evaluate from the shadows, giving yourself the opportunity to do a one hit kill instead of engaging in a three-second skirmish in which you're making a lot of noise and drawing your prey's friends' attention. Or maybe you have a weapon that's double dagger unbalanced and you can't attack every round so you want to make the attacks that you can make count. Or... hell, maybe it just makes sense for the story. Which, after all, is what role playing is about. Sometimes, it's not merely about succeeding, but the quality of the success.
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Old 12-30-2010, 10:39 PM   #10
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Default Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)

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they feel they would expose themselves more, if they attacked each turn
Sounds to me more like All-Out Defense (or Defensive Attack) than Evaluate.
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