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12-30-2010, 03:16 AM | #1 | |
Join Date: Mar 2006
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Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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Consider the the alternatives: A Skill-12 warrior attacks some adversary. 1) choose evaluate, attack next round: one attack at skill 13. probability of success 0.84 2) choose attack and also attack next round: 1-((1-0.74)^2). probability of success 0.93 So only at effective skill 4 is an evaluate followed by an attack better than two successive attacks. At skill 5 the two attacks are already better (according to a quick calculation) The only situation in which I can imagine evaluate being useful is when your opponent does not see you.. but then still telegraphic attack is the better option given that you could be detected any second, being that close - and if you can't a hefty TDM is in place anyway making the hit almost automatic.
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12-30-2010, 03:51 AM | #2 |
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Not in your time zone:D
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
What if those 2 attacks were stopped by active or passive defences?
Evaluate to increase your effective skill and choose an attack that has better chance of defeating that defence. eg feint or deceptive attack or targeted attack or armour chinks.
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12-30-2010, 04:43 AM | #3 |
Join Date: Mar 2006
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
In any of these situations attacking two times gives a higher chance of landing a blow than attacking once with +1 to skill (see calculation above) unless your effective skill drops to 4 or below.
As an additional note: The chance of NOT being able to deliver the attack after evaluate is also higher. The other guy might disable or wound/shock his opponent in the first blow already, eliminating the threat.
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12-30-2010, 07:54 AM | #4 | |
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Torino, Italy
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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GURPS Martial Arts in some way acknowledged Evaluate's uselessness, and tried to make it better by adding the "reduce penalties caused by Feints/Deceptive attacks" bit. Even so, it is useless and counterproductive 90% of the times. Those who want to make Evaluate a real tactical option, not just something you do when your enemy is too distant and you don't want to Move&Attack, usually adopt one or more of the following houserules: - Evaluate grants +2 instead of +1 (each turn). Evaluate might still be statistically counterproductive in some instances, but it does lessen the problem. - Evaluate grants +1 to your own defenses (as if it were a "Defensive Attack" maneuver). Evaluating an enemy seems a more cautious choice than directly attacking him, and this caoutiosness should be reflected in game terms. I think this is the realistic explanation on why fighters often Evaluate in real life (because they feel they would expose themselves more, if they attacked each turn).
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12-30-2010, 08:32 AM | #5 | |
Doctor of GURPS Ballistics
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Lakeville, MN
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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+2 to +4 for a turn of "no-action" is pretty good. Maybe too good, though, since that's basically an auto-success on a Feint QC by 4.
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12-30-2010, 06:53 PM | #6 | |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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A quick contest is NOT the same die rolling game mechanic as a normal "attack". Why not just disallow using "evaluate" as a function of "feints" or anything else that uses quick contests entirely? Also? What are the cumulative odds of rolling a crit failure in say - three successive attacks (which unfortunately, is also balanced by the crit success odds in three consecutive attacks)? What might be worth the while is that Evaluate, once "won", isn't lost on a turn by turn basis. If you do a feint in a particular fashion, and your opponent responds by rote in a specific fashion - that "understanding" of his weakness doesn't evaporate. Proposal: When utilizing evaluate as an option, one must utilize a perception based tactics roll to determine a pattern within that fighter's style. Familiarity with that style of fighting grants a +1 bonus to the perception based roll. Until the opponent takes a deceptive attack option against you, that +1 bonus gained via Evaluate becomes permanent for the duration of that battle. The reason for the deceptive attack being required is that the opponent must be consciously trying NOT to use his rote attacks or rote defenses while fighting. It takes 2 successful evaluates to gain a +1 bonus. It takes 4 successful evaluates to gain a +2 bonus, and 9 successful evaluates to gain a +3. These evaluates may occur at a distance (not within one turn's worth of combat movement and attack range) equal to IQ yards, with perception. These bonuses may be made permanent if a player invests 1 point in "fighting style of X" as a quirk. When you practice with someone over a period of time, you become familiar with their quirks and their tempo - as well as their style of combat. Since a single point is worth about 200 hours of study, this doesn't seem to be TOO out of line with practicing with a particular foe over a long period of time.
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12-30-2010, 02:15 PM | #7 | |
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Charlotte, North Caroline, United States of America, Earth?
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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If you use Feints, against a similarly skilled opponent, evaluating for three turns, then launching a devastating feint + attack(possibly with a riposte mixed in for even MORE awesome) that will be difficult to defend against. If your opponent has credible defenses(for example, Basic speed 6, Combat Reflexes, Shield 14, a large shield and a weapon), attacking EVERY turn isn't necessarily going to be effective: with a block of 13 + retreat, it's likely that you won't be able to get through your opponents defences without a feint or deceptive attack. Evaluate lets you get higher skill levels. I know I've created a number of fighters who were built along the idea of using high defense(for example, Staff + heavy spear in defensive grip) and counter-attacks for openings. When Erik has a defensive skill of 16-17+ and has very high levels in the counter-attack technique, bad things can happen: you attempt to hit me, I parry(Easily), and then set up an arm lock with my spear. Now your arm is broken and you can't fight. Evaluate is also useful for fights where something unexpected may happen. If you're fighting an unarmed thug who pulls a weapon, getting a bonus to your observation roll to see it can be the difference between life and death. Attacking every turn is great..if you can do it with no cost. If you use an unbalanced weapon, for example, it's not a great idea: you lose your secondary defense system, which allows rapid-strikes and all-out(double) to bypass your shield and get to you, and your only defense at that point is a dodge, which because of encumbrance is penalized. In this case, evaluating for a few turns is a big deal, as it allows you to make one attack, make it count, and win the battle. The bonus defense against feints and deceptive attacks is also great: 1 turn of evaluate effectively cancels 2 points of skill for your opponent's deceptive attacks. Again, if you use the defensive techniques, it's very possible to have a character who is virtually immune to enemy attack: Again, I cite my spear-fighter Erik who would routinely use Evaluate to prevent Deceptive attacks from lowering his skill(he already had an extremely high feint skill as well), and Erik would happily parry, parry, parry, parry, parry, feint, arm-lock, break arm, through you to the ground and stab you in the throat with a telegraphic all-out attack once you are on the ground. Evaluate can also be used while advancing toward an opponent who is distant(like 4-5 yards), as you can evaluate as you walk forward. Your opponent is limited to either a move-and-attack(penalties to defense and attack) or All-out attack(about 3 hexes of movement and NO defense), or he can walk towards you. The probabilities are great, in a vacuum when attacking carries no negative repercussions. But once other combat options are in use, attacking can be a bad idea. My one house rule has been to allow waits to automatically translate into evaluates, much like aiming.
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12-31-2010, 04:36 AM | #8 | |||||||||||
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Torino, Italy
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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If you cannot, or don't want to, attack, then of course Evaluating is better than doing nothing. Note, however, that in many cases even the "sneaky thief" won't choose to Evaluate; if you are using an actual battle map with walls, rocks, whatever, the sneaky thief will often find more useful to stealthily Move behind a corner, or Wait for his opponent to pass closer to him. Quote:
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Even then, Feint and then Attack will (usually) be better than Evaluating and then Attack. If your opponent is so good that Feinting is not enough, chances are you will be defeated, with or without Evaluating... Quote:
Note that with skill 16+, if your opponent attacks five times, he has a cumulative chance of 35% of delivering at least 1 critical hit... Quote:
Evaluate and Feint can be used together, but basically they are competing options and there is no "sinergy" between them. Quote:
Against such an opponent, I would usually try "extreme" Deceptive attacks (e.g., reducing my skill to 10, the minimum allowed) rather than wasting turns to Evaluate. Quote:
Are you really saying that in a GURPS fight it is a good tactical choice to Evaluate to get a bonus to Observation rolls? Of course it is a good idea if Observation is the only thing you care about... but in any other situation, it's a waste of time. Quote:
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Evaluating significantly improves your chances of succeeding only under a very specific set of assumptions: e.g., your effective skill is 10, and you Evaluate 2 turns (in which case your chance of success improves by 24%, which is probably less than your opponent's chances of hitting you in the 3 turns you use to prepare your "combo"). Quote:
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So you do admit to have houseruled Evaluate because you felt it was useless :) Your "one house rule" is a quite significant one, if in your games Wait subsume Evaluate, then fighters have no need to Evaluate, they will always Wait... this makes our whole debate meaningless. It's like I said: "Maul is an inferior weapon when compared to Greatsword" And you responded: "Not in my game world, where the main opponents are immune to cutting attacks, and as an house rule, I allow "Excellent" Mauls for +2 damage"
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12-30-2010, 09:20 PM | #9 | |
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: SF Bay Area, CA
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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12-30-2010, 10:39 PM | #10 | |
Join Date: Sep 2007
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Re: Evaluate useless? (from Why Wait)
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