08-20-2013, 02:17 PM | #1 |
Join Date: Jan 2006
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You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
In Jovus' game tonight, my PC (Ilsildel) will most likely throw a mass sleep spell in a situation where failure would be Bad. Ilsildel has luck, and I've been pondering what my threshold for invoking it to make the MOS as overwhelming as possible is.
This page has some nice numbers (they match mine, so they must be good) for what the odds are, but it doesn't explicitly break out how much MOS calling for the two additional luck rolls will buy you. I worked that out, and decided to share. The table below shows how much extra MOS, on average, invoking luck will get you, after you have made the initial roll. Code:
Init. MOS ExRoll Roll Imp. 3 0.0 3.0 4 0.0 4.0 5 0.0 5.0 6 0.1 5.9 7 0.3 6.7 8 0.6 7.4 9 1.1 7.9 10 1.7 8.3 11 2.4 8.6 12 3.3 8.7 13 4.2 8.8 14 5.2 8.8 15 6.2 8.8 16 7.2 8.8 17 8.2 8.8 18 9.2 8.8 Um, I guess that's all. Hey, I tagged it with 'math wankery.' |
08-21-2013, 12:02 AM | #2 |
Hero of Democracy
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: far from the ocean
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
and showing that GURPS luck is about not failing, not about critical successes!
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Be helpful, not pedantic Worlds Beyond Earth -- my blog Check out the PbP forum! If you don't see a game you'd like, ask me about making one! |
08-21-2013, 12:25 AM | #3 |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
The chance to improve your roll is 1 - (chance to roll your current roll or higher on 3d6)^2 -- i.e. if you roll a 9, the odds of rolling 9+ on 3d6 is 160/216, squared that is 0.549, so you've got a 44.1% chance to improve your roll. You can apply that to any other value; to roll 7- is equivalent to beating an 8, or 181/216, for a total 29.8% chance of getting a 7 or lower.
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08-21-2013, 12:41 AM | #4 |
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
It also depends on what the individual dice roll.
If you get two 1s and a 6, it's possible that you could improve that roll(I'd use it if a critical success was something I wanted!). If you get two 4s and a 5. That's a pretty bad roll, and Luck isn't going to help you much there either. Best case scenario it turns the 5 into a one. It's not something you can easily graph and calculate. |
08-21-2013, 12:54 AM | #5 | |
Dog of Lysdexics
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Melbourne FL, Formerly Wellington NZ
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
Quote:
you don't get to keep those two 1s you got to reroll them too. |
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08-21-2013, 01:36 AM | #6 | ||
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
Quote:
Quote:
I'm not sure if this is worse or better than re-rolling all three. |
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08-21-2013, 01:42 AM | #7 |
Dog of Lysdexics
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Melbourne FL, Formerly Wellington NZ
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
except in GURPS rule mean the roll total is what it means by a die role. so a 3d6 skill check is a single die roll in its totality.
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08-21-2013, 01:43 AM | #8 | ||
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Oregon
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
Quote:
Quote:
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08-21-2013, 02:00 AM | #9 |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
It's more predictable, which is probably better, but I'm not sure how its average compare. In any case, that's not the way the rules are intended to work.
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08-21-2013, 02:09 AM | #10 | |
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Re: You Can Do Better Than That (MOS Improvement via Luck)
Quote:
I've always thought that re-rolling at will is REALLY powerful and 15 points feels kind of cheap to me. Even if it is only once per hour. I'll just make it a house rule instead of a bad interpretation. |
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Tags |
luck, math wankery, mos, probability |
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