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Old 05-05-2016, 05:25 PM   #1
DAT
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Idaho Falls, Idaho
Default From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

So the ATE campaign idea I'm thinking about is starting with THS2100+ and having the USA vs China conflict turn into World War III/Solar System War I, dragging the EU, PRA, TSA, Luna, belt and everyone else into the conflict, if only in self defense. So nukes/AM, swarms, AKVs, bio-weapons, etc all get unleashed. All major concentrations of civilization get targeted. Not all are destroyed, but everyone gets hurt.

Earth and Mars orbit becomes a gauntlet, that no one has the resources to clear or risk going back to for decades. Latent kill systems on Earth continue to zap attempts to rebuild for decades too.

Slowly isolated Far Beyond, Luna, and maybe other clumps of civilization climb back up and become self supporting and able to have resources able to head back to earth to check things out.

Questions:
How feasible do folks think it is for such a conflict?

Does knocking space communities hard enough for it to take decades for them to recover seem feasible?
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Old 05-05-2016, 06:11 PM   #2
tshiggins
 
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Denver, Colorado
Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAT View Post
So the ATE campaign idea I'm thinking about is starting with THS2100+ and having the USA vs China conflict turn into World War III/Solar System War I, dragging the EU, PRA, TSA, Luna, belt and everyone else into the conflict, if only in self defense. So nukes/AM, swarms, AKVs, bio-weapons, etc all get unleashed. All major concentrations of civilization get targeted. Not all are destroyed, but everyone gets hurt.

Earth and Mars orbit becomes a gauntlet, that no one has the resources to clear or risk going back to for decades. Latent kill systems on Earth continue to zap attempts to rebuild for decades too.

Slowly isolated Far Beyond, Luna, and maybe other clumps of civilization climb back up and become self supporting and able to have resources able to head back to earth to check things out.

Questions:
How feasible do folks think it is for such a conflict?

Does knocking space communities hard enough for it to take decades for them to recover seem feasible?
You might want to pick up SevenEves, by Neal Stephenson. It could have some useful ideas, for you.

In that book, a singularity goes through the moon and breaks it apart. Many of the pieces fall to Earth, rendering it mostly uninhabitable for thousands of years. The only people left are those who made it into orbit.

Much of the book focuses on what they needed to do to survive. Fortunately, it starts out about 50 years in the future, or so. That means they have the ability to create human DNA and, in so doing, maintain genetic diversity by creating fertilized zygotes, from basic biological materials. It also helps that seven of the survivors were fertile women (the Seven Eves, of the title).

Some of the technology the orbital civilization(s) developed might provide some useful insights for your campaign idea.
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:45 PM   #3
Johnny1A.2
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAT View Post
So the ATE campaign idea I'm thinking about is starting with THS2100+ and having the USA vs China conflict turn into World War III/Solar System War I, dragging the EU, PRA, TSA, Luna, belt and everyone else into the conflict, if only in self defense. So nukes/AM, swarms, AKVs, bio-weapons, etc all get unleashed. All major concentrations of civilization get targeted. Not all are destroyed, but everyone gets hurt.

Earth and Mars orbit becomes a gauntlet, that no one has the resources to clear or risk going back to for decades. Latent kill systems on Earth continue to zap attempts to rebuild for decades too.

Slowly isolated Far Beyond, Luna, and maybe other clumps of civilization climb back up and become self supporting and able to have resources able to head back to earth to check things out.

Questions:
How feasible do folks think it is for such a conflict?

Does knocking space communities hard enough for it to take decades for them to recover seem feasible?
It's not quite that simple. It depends on how realistic you want to be.

If you want a relatively realistic answer, the answer is that it depends on when the crash happens. If it's in the immediate post-2100 years, the answer is that it probably doesn't work, realistically.

The way-out facilities and bases and settlements are probably not yet self-sustaining enough to make it, for the most part. A few of them might be, but if Earth and Mars are out of the game, most of them are probably doomed.

Who has a chance to survive and recover? Titan? Maybe. Ceres? Good chance. Some of the other major centers might be able to hold it together and survive, though they'll have a hard time. (It's nearly a sure thing that they'll discover minor little things they still need from Earth/Mars that they never even gave a thought to before.) That assumes, of course, that they survive the War...and that's hard.

Thing is, the space-based centers of population and activity are vulnerable. A single major hit can depressurize tunnels, piece domes, shattered the delicate tech infrastructure that makes life possible at all. So if Luna, Ceres, etc. are in the war, there's a very good chance they're dead. If they are damaged very much, odds are they can't recover at all, because there's just not very much margin for error.

Mars is about the only place in the Solar System other than Earth where such a recovery might be possible after such a war.

Now, that has a big caveat. That's if we're talking about survival of biologicals. Maintaining a society based on SAI/ghosts would be much, much easier. The most likely outcome of the Earth/Mars out of commission scenario is a pure-machine society in space over time. What recovered would likely be very alien.

(Once again, we encounter the issue that cheap, ubiquitous strong AI tends to dominate/shatter a setting given the slightest chance.)

The other reason there's a realism problem is that even with THS tech, it would be very hard to smash civilization down to nothing on Earth, or wipe out humanity entirely. Anything bad enough to do that probably leaves the rest of the Solar System, including Mars, sterile, at least biologically and quite possibly even the AIs are gone.

If you're a biological, if the hammer falls in the immediate aftermath of 2100, you want to be on Earth, because that's the place where a biological has the best chance of surviving when and after the hammer falls. Furthermore, if biologicals survive the war at all, recovery on Earth is easier than just about anywhere else in the Solar System, for biologicals.

(There are a few bioroids and biomod humans who would be more at home on Mars, but probably not enough, as of 2100-2120, to hold Mars together after the hammer falls. Plus the issues of reproduction absent technology.)

So if you want human civilization to recover, or something close to it, you probably need to make a few adjustments. If Ceres and some of the other deep-space population centers sat at the war entirely, it might change the equation somewhat (Though the pressure toward machine-based society would still be there, honestly it's kind of a handwave how the THS setting stays so biologically-centered anyway.).

But even so, unless whatever happened left Earth empty of intelligence, it's the place recovery is most likely to happen first and fastest.
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Old 05-08-2016, 09:45 AM   #4
Keiko
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Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2 View Post
(Once again, we encounter the issue that cheap, ubiquitous strong AI tends to dominate/shatter a setting given the slightest chance.)
Very true.
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Old 05-08-2016, 10:17 AM   #5
DAT
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Idaho Falls, Idaho
Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

Quote:
Originally Posted by tshiggins View Post
You might want to pick up SevenEves, by Neal Stephenson. It could have some useful ideas, for you.

In that book, a singularity goes through the moon and breaks it apart. Many of the pieces fall to Earth, rendering it mostly uninhabitable for thousands of years. The only people left are those who made it into orbit.

Much of the book focuses on what they needed to do to survive. Fortunately, it starts out about 50 years in the future, or so. That means they have the ability to create human DNA and, in so doing, maintain genetic diversity by creating fertilized zygotes, from basic biological materials. It also helps that seven of the survivors were fertile women (the Seven Eves, of the title).

Some of the technology the orbital civilization(s) developed might provide some useful insights for your campaign idea.
Thanks, I'll go look for a copy.
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Old 05-08-2016, 10:56 AM   #6
DAT
 
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Location: Idaho Falls, Idaho
Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2 View Post
It's not quite that simple. It depends on how realistic you want to be.

If you want a relatively realistic answer, the answer is that it depends on when the crash happens. If it's in the immediate post-2100 years, the answer is that it probably doesn't work, realistically.

The way-out facilities and bases and settlements are probably not yet self-sustaining enough to make it, for the most part. A few of them might be, but if Earth and Mars are out of the game, most of them are probably doomed.

Who has a chance to survive and recover? Titan? Maybe. Ceres? Good chance. Some of the other major centers might be able to hold it together and survive, though they'll have a hard time. (It's nearly a sure thing that they'll discover minor little things they still need from Earth/Mars that they never even gave a thought to before.) That assumes, of course, that they survive the War...and that's hard.

Thing is, the space-based centers of population and activity are vulnerable. A single major hit can depressurize tunnels, piece domes, shattered the delicate tech infrastructure that makes life possible at all. So if Luna, Ceres, etc. are in the war, there's a very good chance they're dead. If they are damaged very much, odds are they can't recover at all, because there's just not very much margin for error.

Mars is about the only place in the Solar System other than Earth where such a recovery might be possible after such a war.

Now, that has a big caveat. That's if we're talking about survival of biologicals. Maintaining a society based on SAI/ghosts would be much, much easier. The most likely outcome of the Earth/Mars out of commission scenario is a pure-machine society in space over time. What recovered would likely be very alien.

(Once again, we encounter the issue that cheap, ubiquitous strong AI tends to dominate/shatter a setting given the slightest chance.)

The other reason there's a realism problem is that even with THS tech, it would be very hard to smash civilization down to nothing on Earth, or wipe out humanity entirely. Anything bad enough to do that probably leaves the rest of the Solar System, including Mars, sterile, at least biologically and quite possibly even the AIs are gone.

If you're a biological, if the hammer falls in the immediate aftermath of 2100, you want to be on Earth, because that's the place where a biological has the best chance of surviving when and after the hammer falls. Furthermore, if biologicals survive the war at all, recovery on Earth is easier than just about anywhere else in the Solar System, for biologicals.

(There are a few bioroids and biomod humans who would be more at home on Mars, but probably not enough, as of 2100-2120, to hold Mars together after the hammer falls. Plus the issues of reproduction absent technology.)

So if you want human civilization to recover, or something close to it, you probably need to make a few adjustments. If Ceres and some of the other deep-space population centers sat at the war entirely, it might change the equation somewhat (Though the pressure toward machine-based society would still be there, honestly it's kind of a handwave how the THS setting stays so biologically-centered anyway.).

But even so, unless whatever happened left Earth empty of intelligence, it's the place recovery is most likely to happen first and fastest.
The timing is fairly open, so 2105, 2110, 2115, 2120, etc are all of okay. The only issue is I don't want the technology to grow too advance. A few higher TL proto-types introduced during the conflict is fine, but I don't want wide spread new (to the THS setting) tech.

The idea is that the Earth and Mars get hurt enough that there is only a few small scattered pockets of civilization left (99+% population loss); and the space based civilizations are hurt to the point that they can't sweep in and automatically take over.

I think lots of anti-AI weapons would be introduced during the war, to counter AI forces. So AIs might start back after the main war ends worst than biologicals.
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Old 05-08-2016, 04:15 PM   #7
Polydamas
 
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Location: Central Europe
Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

Would the setting be on Earth, Mars, or somewhere else? Traditionally its somewhere where people can live without high technology, but not as well as they could before the crash.

The Transhuman and technologically optimistic elements of THS would give the game a different feel than most post-apocalyptic stories. THS has plenty of room for eerie dangers, pre-crash creatures, etc. ...

I would not worry too much about plausability, because your THS can have different geopolitics, and none of the characters should be in a position to understand exactly what happened. We can't agree whether the First World War was almost inevitable or the result of a diplomatic crisis at just the wrong time, and we are not dodging fallout, mad AIs, and the products of factories with a really bad malware infestation. I'm told that Afghanistan is even more full of contradictory theories about why all these foreigners with magical powers are wandering around blowing things up.
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Old 05-09-2016, 03:42 PM   #8
DAT
 
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Location: Idaho Falls, Idaho
Default Re: From THS 2100 to ATE 2200

My outline has the starting point on Earth.

The options of starting characters being struggling tribesmen, or newly awaken "sleepers" from just before the war, is still open.

I am reluctant to allow "refugees from orbit" (like the show 'The 100', or what ever the name is). But maybe one of my players will succeed with a Fadt-Talk roll ;-)
-Dan
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