Tsunami-1

[Tomsdad]

Originally Posted by johndallman

Historically, the British did think of it independently. Quite a lot of people did: the paper describing the discovery of fission was openly published in January 1939. Within a year, there had been over a hundred follow-up papers. Germany and Japan were the first to start military projects, in April '39, but they didn't get anywhere. FDR reviewed Einstein's letter on October 11th. Igor Kurchatov informed his government some time the same year, and the British had their first go that year too, but stalled out.

Frisch and Peierls, German emigres in the UK who were technically enemy aliens and thus not allowed to work on military projects had a go on their own initiative early in 1940, found an easy way to calculate an approximate critical mass, and realised the job was doable. The British project was called "Tube Alloys" but most of its people ended up at Los Alamos.

Merging the projects just made sense historically: the US had far more industrial capacity and money, and was not exposed to bombing.

Right but the thing with all that it kind of demonstrates that it's not just

1). have idea to build a bomb using fission
2). chuck money at it
3). have atom bomb


There were alot or pitfalls and issues along the way.

Originally Posted by johndallman

The Lancaster was thoroughly capable of dropping a atomic bomb. In fact, that was exploited by the Manhattan Project when the USAAF took against the idea of supplying B-29s. Pointing out that the British would doubtless happy to supply Lancasters changed the USAAF's mind swiftly.

The Lancaster doesn't have the same range capability as the B29, but that just means you have to launch from Okinawa rather than the Mariana Islands. The bomb shackle that was used in the B-29 for the atomic bombings was from the Lancaster, and had been developed for the Tallboy and Grand Slam bombs, the latter of which was far heavier than the WWII nukes.

It not just range it's also altitude, speed and survivability (which is not just armament and frame but also linked to altitude & speed, but also what's escorting it and so on)

It also not just about can it take the load and get off the ground but what the impact to it's capabilities are while doing so.

Basically the Lancaster carrying a fat man is closer to it's max operational tolerances than the B29 carrying the same and will suffer disproportionately for it. Plus the Lancaster's ceiling, speed and range are starting lower already as well. Adding to this is the complications when it comes to dropping atom bombs. Both Fatman and Littleboy were dropped at over 9,000m partly to give the bombs their flight time of 40+ seconds with an air burst

Like I said yes it can do it in theory but it is more limited in the role than the B29 is.

On top of this and exacerbating it, those limitations will kick in more when you trying to hit Germany with Lancasters (especially when not doing so after an extended, concerted bombing campaign, plus an air war of attrition which the LW loses facing combined GB, & Co and US production in other areas than just bombers).


Which brings up a more general point in regard to this TL. In an uneasy cease fire between Germany and the UK from Oct 1942 - Feb 1945, if the UK is doing lots of work on large 4 prop bombers, 4 prop bombers that are only ever going to have one target it's going to trigger a German response even if it's just to work on counter measures. A Germany that's doing better in Russia and not fighting the western allies elsewhere (including not getting bombed night and day) has more resources to devote to this.

More esoterically a Germany not fighting the western allies and only fighting the USSR is a very different situation in terms of maybe physicists and engineers fleeing Germany to work for the allies during the ceasefire. Equally a US that is struggling to deal with the Tsunami and not marshalling all efforts to fight the Axis, as well as not being 'a peaceful haven away from a world a-flame since 1939' is a different environment in terms of bringing together all the resources required in the Manhattan project other than just cash. Basically lots of butterflies here.

[The Colonel]

I'm guessing that the Lancaster would need to parachute retard the bombs then. Of course, if you are demonstrating the detonation of an atomic device under diplomatic cover, you don't actually need a second device or a working delivery system … you just need the enemy to think you do (and recall that the Abwher network in the UK was thoroughly penetrated and turned wherever it was not collapsed). A live strike would have the advantage that - the first time at least - the Luftwaffe would not recognise the significance of a lone bomber and would be concentrating on the bombardment group sent as a decoy...

Presumably, if the US alliance had not occurred, TUBEALLOY could have been relocated to, say, South Africa or something for plenty of space and fewer bombers...

[Tomsdad]

Originally Posted by The Colonel

I'm guessing that the Lancaster would need to parachute retard the bombs then.

Could do, how big would the chute(s) have to be though? factoring in the slower speed of the Lancaster etc, etc

Originally Posted by The Colonel

Of course, if you are demonstrating the detonation of an atomic device under diplomatic cover, you don't actually need a second device or a working delivery system … you just need the enemy to think you do (and recall that the Abwher network in the UK was thoroughly penetrated and turned wherever it was not collapsed). A live strike would have the advantage that - the first time at least - the Luftwaffe would not recognise the significance of a lone bomber and would be concentrating on the bombardment group sent as a decoy...

Presumably, if the US alliance had not occurred, TUBEALLOY could have been relocated to, say, South Africa or something for plenty of space and fewer bombers...

True, but it's a risky bluff, because what are Germany's options at that point?

Seek peace and give whatever Britain wants to get it, to avoid the threat and hope Britain won't do so anyway

or

Go hell for leather to stop Britain before these new wunder-bombs start dropping.


Also not forgetting that it's not you and I making that choice but Hitler (although differences in ATL/OTL might temper him a bit)!


There's also the point that this demonstration takes place in Apr 1946, when fighting had already been ongoing for the best part of a year including as stated an air war. So I think a question being asked in German high command would be "we're already fighting so if they have this thing in a usable form why aren't they dropping it on us, especially as they're dropping everything else they have on us?"

There's also the point that "Look we can make a really big, frightening explosion on an island in the south pacific" and "we can put one of these in a bomb on a single plane and drop it on the Ruhr valley at will" is a leap even if it's a worry!

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Tsunami-1 continued...


Thus is was that on May 1, 1946, German observers aboard a German battleship saw a mushroom cloud rise up from the 18 kiloton detonation of Britain's (and Tsunami-1's) first atomic bomb.

To be continued...

To understand the context of what happened next, we need to step back a few years and look at what was happening in North America after the Great Wave.

As noted above, the greatest tsunami in history (actually a series of several waves) wrought tremendous damage all around the Pacific Rim. Though the United States was far less heavily 'invested' on the west coast in 1940 than it would be later on Homeline history, the damage was still considerable and the death-toll numbing. It was easily the most lethal natural disaster in America history, by a very large margin.

Sacramento [ERROR: This should read San Diego.] and Los Angeles were devastated. San Francisco was more lightly struck, the waves penetrated San Francisco Bay and wrought havoc. Even the Golden Gate Bridge was sufficiently damaged that it had to be torn down and replaced. To the north, Seattle was partly sheltered by the local land, but still enormously damaged.

All told, over 235,000 people were either confirmed dead, or missing, when the damage was assessed. The USA had lost more people in that one natural disaster than it had in most of the wars it had ever fought. Subsequent American historians would generally consider the Great Wave second only to the Civil War of 1861-65 in terms of its catastrophic harm, and the latter was spread over four years, while the Great Wave took only a day.

The monetary damage was difficult to calculate. Some insurance companies that had high exposure to the west coast region went bankrupt, a few reinsurance companies went down as well. Still, economists would later puzzle over some of the impacts, because they were as much psychological as physical.

In the short term, the fading Great Depression returned, as stocks plunged and panic gripped the country. Historians would later conclude that this effect was as much psychological as pragmatic, the economy collapsed not so much because of the damage to the west coast as because the public overreacted in panic and dread. The effect was real enough, though.

As the remaining months of 1940 passed, an initially desultory and confused cleanup and rescue effort began to come together. FDR declared martial law throughout the west coast States, and gradually an effective relief effort came together.

The Civilian Conservation Corps was expanded enormously, as one response to the disaster, and taking in recruits of men previously considered too old. Congress actually voted in a 'draft' for the CCC, enabling compulsory service for unemployed young men as laborers. Other organizations somewhat along the same lines were also put together, such as a 'Service Corps' made up of older men with experience in medicine or rescue work.

Over the course 1941, the reconstruction effort began to show results. Los Angeles Harbor was repaired, as was San Francisco. New facilities rose in Seattle and San Diego, and new military facilities began to be built as well, establishing the nucleus for a substantial naval presence in the Pacific.

Many people, both in the USA and outside, took note that life in the expanded CCC had military overtones, though it was technically a civilian organization. A generation of young men were getting a 'primer' in military life without actually being in the service, and this was did not go unnoticed.

The economic impact of the reconstruction began to undo the downturn as 1941 drew to a close. Enormous quantities of raw materials were purchased, finish products needed. The men of the CCC were paid, not lavishly but paid, and they spent money.

Indeed, the pay structure of the 'new' CCC was interesting. The government provided room and board, so the modest pay went farther than one would expect. Furthermore, a second salary was also paid in an escrow account in the name of the man. After two years employment, he received this money, but he forfeited it if he quit during the years or broke various rules.

Enormous progress was made in 1942, reconstruction proceeding faster than most people had dared hope. FDR's talent for reading the public and tapping just the right tone to motivate served him and the public well, he was able to motivate the reconstruction almost with a war-effort intensity. In the process, in many ways the restored west coast infrastructure was a modernized, improved version of what had been destroyed.

In 1943, FDR convinced Congress to authorize CCC work to 'rebuild and update' much of the east coastal infrastructure as well, including, interestingly, naval facilities.

Franklin Roosevelt's health was failing him, however, and just as on Homeline, there was considerable discontent within the Democratic Party over his vice-president, Henry Wallace, for many of the same underlying reasons. (The details varied because the world situation was different.) Just as on Homeline, Wallace was defeated at the Democratic Convention by a party rebellion in 1944.

Events were sufficiently different, however, that instead of putting Truman onto the ticket, a little known congressman from Kansas named Brant Shelby became FDR's new vice president. Shelby was on his first term in the House of Representatives when he was chosen as the compromise between Democratic Party factions.

Just as on Homeline, FDR easily won the 1944 November elections, and just as on Homeline, less than a year later FDR was dead. Brant Shelby was now President of the United States.

To be continued...

[Michele]

Just on the tech side of things, the Avro Lincoln, a derivate of the Lancaster, flew in 1944, had a ceiling of 9,200 meters, and enough payload. It could be modified to a Silverplate version.

[adm]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

...Sacramento and Los Angeles were devastated. San Francisco was more lightly struck, the waves penetrated San Francisco Bay and wrought havoc. ...

Did you intend San Diego, instead of Sacramento? You would be hard pressed to devastate Sacramento, while San Francisco was only "lightly" struck.

[Tomsdad]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Snip...

To be continued...

Nice, out of interest how is the CCC, purchase of material and rebuilding being paid for? War time levels of taxation, peace bonds?

[The Colonel]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Many people, both in the USA and outside, took note that life in the expanded CCC had military overtones, though it was technically a civilian organization. A generation of young men were getting a 'primer' in military life without actually being in the service, and this was did not go unnoticed.

The economic impact of the reconstruction began to undo the downturn as 1941 drew to a close. Enormous quantities of raw materials were purchased, finish products needed. The men of the CCC were paid, not lavishly but paid, and they spent money.

I'm guessing that the similarity to the Reichsarbeitsdienst is intended?

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by adm

Did you intend San Diego, instead of Sacramento? You would be hard pressed to devastate Sacramento, while San Francisco was only "lightly" struck.

Yes, I meant San Diego. Sacramento was not of course hardly affected, except indirectly.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Just as on Homeline, FDR easily won the 1944 November elections, and just as on Homeline, less than a year later FDR was dead. Brant Shelby was now President of the United States.

To be continued...

Brant Shelby came to power during the tense cease-fire between Britain and Germany, and officially reiterated the policy of American neutrality that remained the formal position of the United States Government. In the aftermath of the Great Wave, unlike Homeline, the various neutrality laws passed by Congress remained in effect.

Unofficially, like FDR before him, President Shelby was strongly pro-British, less out of Anglophilia than out of a firm conviction that an ascendant Germany was not in America's long term interest. President Shelby continued FDR's policy of very quietly assisting the British effort, mostly by indirect means. This included a significant naval buildup, which FDR and Shelby were able to sell to Congress in part for the economic stimulus associated with it.

The eastern seaboard and much of the western Atlantic was patrolled by American ships, engaged in unofficial but real submarine hunts. This hindered German submarine efforts substantially, and produced considerable irritation in Berlin, but the German government remembered the lesson of the World War I, and wanted to give neither FDR nor Shelby an excuse. Furthermore, during the cease fire, the Germans could not openly hunt British transports, either, though of course they sometimes did it when it was 'deniable'. Both American and German forces engaged each other in the shadows throughout most of 1944.

Though America was officially neutral, British pounds bought war materiel from American factories, much of it on credit, in huge amounts. FDR and Shelby convinced Congress to permit this in part by clever persuasion, in part by pointing out the economic benefits, and in part by doling out immense amounts of 'pork' where necessary.

When the Greater War turned hot again, matters changed. It was now permissible for German U-boats to sink British transports again, and there simply was not the political will in Washington to permit President Shelby to openly act against Germany. This was roughly where matters stood as events led up to the deployment of the British A-bomb in 1946.

To be continued...