Conflict on Titan

[Michael Thayne]

Looking at it closely,Titan looks like one of the most likely, if not the most likely, flashpoints for great-power conflict in the THS universe. Here are some notes on how the conflict might play out. Feedback would be greatly appreciated.

It all starts when early in 2100, China shoots down an unmanned reconnaissance TAV flying over Jiangli station. The USAF had the letter of international law on their side when conducting the flight, but the Chinese feel that had it gotten any closer, they might not have had the time to shoot it down had it suddenly turned kamikaze.

At this point, it's unclear to me what happens. The USAF might be able to destroy Jiangli station via orbital bombardment with coilguns, though some of the fluff about Titan being a "planetary citadel" suggests this should not be so easy. Even if it's feasible, the USAF probably doesn't know exactly what weapons are at Jiangli, and might fear a retaliatory strike on Huygens City before the station's defenses can be fully incapacitated. This could also lead to an all-out war between the two powers in other ways.

A more attractive option might be an He-3 embargo. This would put China in a difficult position, as they wouldn't be as easily caught off-guard by Helium-3 piracy as they were during the Pacific War. It's possible, though, that China could effectively respond by escalating its buildup on Titan. The US military presence on Titan is currently larger, canonically, but probably not very well optimized for rapidly ramping up. The US military may have also lost institutional knowledge about how to effectively use military bioroids, a big problem if RATS are harder to produce quickly.

Which is the more likely choice for US policymakers? How vulnerable is Jiangli to orbital bombardment? What other factors should I consider?

[sir_pudding]

Any outer planets fight without the TSA's secret Sulieman SDV being deployed seems like a wasted opportunity.

[Michael Thayne]

Originally Posted by sir_pudding

Any outer planets fight without the TSA's secret Sulieman SDV being deployed seems like a wasted opportunity.

That SDV is definitely important, but it feels like less something that would get involved directly, and more like "the conflict on Titan prevents China from taking action against Liang Mountain, which really they should have been focusing on". And there's no reason for the TSA to pick a fight with either the US or China when they have only one (admittedly well-armed) SDV, so I'm not seeing an "enemy mine" situation there where they China and the US are forced to team up against the TSA.

[Michael Thayne]

OTOH, if the Chinese get desperate enough, they might decide to make some diplomatic overtures to the TSA and Trojan Mafia, past conflicts be damned ("We've always been at war with Eastasia!")

[Michael Thayne]

Honestly, if you look closely at the setting, it seems like a big setup for China to get taken down a peg. The US and the EU don't like the TSA, but they also don't like that China was the aggressor in the Pacific War. They basically have no allies aside from the Gypsy Angels. Making an alliance with the Axon Group could make sense, but otherwise they don't have many places to turn for support. The smart thing to do would be to keep their heads down until their Uranus-based He-3 mining operation is up and running, but instead they had to go saber-rattle on Titan.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Michael Thayne

Looking at it closely,Titan looks like one of the most likely, if not the most likely, flashpoints for great-power conflict in the THS universe. Here are some notes on how the conflict might play out. Feedback would be greatly appreciated.

It all starts when early in 2100, China shoots down an unmanned reconnaissance TAV flying over Jiangli station. The USAF had the letter of international law on their side when conducting the flight, but the Chinese feel that had it gotten any closer, they might not have had the time to shoot it down had it suddenly turned kamikaze.

At this point, it's unclear to me what happens. The USAF might be able to destroy Jiangli station via orbital bombardment with coilguns, though some of the fluff about Titan being a "planetary citadel" suggests this should not be so easy. Even if it's feasible, the USAF probably doesn't know exactly what weapons are at Jiangli, and might fear a retaliatory strike on Huygens City before the station's defenses can be fully incapacitated. This could also lead to an all-out war between the two powers in other ways.

A more attractive option might be an He-3 embargo. This would put China in a difficult position, as they wouldn't be as easily caught off-guard by Helium-3 piracy as they were during the Pacific War. It's possible, though, that China could effectively respond by escalating its buildup on Titan. The US military presence on Titan is currently larger, canonically, but probably not very well optimized for rapidly ramping up. The US military may have also lost institutional knowledge about how to effectively use military bioroids, a big problem if RATS are harder to produce quickly.

Which is the more likely choice for US policymakers? How vulnerable is Jiangli to orbital bombardment? What other factors should I consider?

Nations don't make decisions, people do.

You need to look at who the President of the USA is when the incident happens, who the chief official of the Chinese government is, their personalities, the politics that constrain them. That stuff will determine a lot of what happens. The incident could fizzle into nothing or blow up into a full-scale war depending on the general background, and the specific personalities of the leadership.

Determining that information will also determine what sort of factors constrain the players. For ex, if both leaders are determined to keep it from boiling over, aggressive players may find themselves blocked by their own side. If one or both leaders is ready for something to happen, would-be peacemakers might find themselves similarly blocked on the ground.

[Michael Thayne]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Nations don't make decisions, people do.

You need to look at who the President of the USA is when the incident happens, who the chief official of the Chinese government is, their personalities, the politics that constrain them. That stuff will determine a lot of what happens. The incident could fizzle into nothing or blow up into a full-scale war depending on the general background, and the specific personalities of the leadership.

Determining that information will also determine what sort of factors constrain the players. For ex, if both leaders are determined to keep it from boiling over, aggressive players may find themselves blocked by their own side. If one or both leaders is ready for something to happen, would-be peacemakers might find themselves similarly blocked on the ground.

This is true, but I'm trying to think about what's likely given the kind of people likely to be in the Chinese and US leadership, and the nature of the situation. I'm also implicitly assuming both sides have competent advisers who they listen to to some extent, enough to rule out either side doing anything blatantly stupid. Combine that with historical parallels, and you rule out a lot.

The situation on Titan, as far as I can tell, has a lot of parallels with things that resulted in minor skirmishes. It's a bit harder to find things that resulted in great-power wars. Furthermore, to the extent the situation lacks real historical parallels, this mostly seems true in ways that stack the deck against great-power war. Both the US and China are implied to still have nuclear weapons in 2100, which means both sides really don't want to go to war, yet unlike in the real Cold War there's no risk someone will mistakenly think they're being attacked or about to be attack and try to launch a retaliatory or preemptive strike before it's too late. Or at least, that's not going to happen as the result of anything that happens on Titan because Titan is too far away.

Combine this with stated relative force strengths on Titan and the Deep Beyond more generally, the relationships the US and China have with other actors, and other such canonical information, and you begin to get a sense of what their options are if no side is completely stupid.

Speaking of options... the more I think about it, the more I think one of China's best options may be a rapid buildup of bioroid soldiers on Titan. They have no inherent technological edge in using such a strategy, but the US military's phaseout of bioroid soldiers, combined with a doctrine of not using infomorph officers, makes a rapid build-up much more difficult. That's the kind of thing that seems likely to tip things over into a broader war, though maybe one limited to space by tacit agreement between the parties. The US would see no option except to attack the base, and China would be able to spin it as an act of aggression that violated various treaties about peaceful co-use of space.

[sir_pudding]

Originally Posted by Michael Thayne

That SDV is definitely important, but it feels like less something that would get involved directly, and more like "the conflict on Titan prevents China from taking action against Liang Mountain, which really they should have been focusing on". And there's no reason for the TSA to pick a fight with either the US or China when they have only one (admittedly well-armed) SDV, so I'm not seeing an "enemy mine" situation there where they China and the US are forced to team up against the TSA.

I would probably have the TSA scheming to get the PRC and the US to fight on Titan, probably via that dirty tricks black ops cell that's hiding out with the Gypsy Angels (I don't remember what they are called). When the PCs figure this out then the situation where the Sulieman is deployed is probably easier to arrange.

[Michael Thayne]

Originally Posted by sir_pudding

I would probably have the TSA scheming to get the PRC and the US to fight on Titan, probably via that dirty tricks black ops cell that's hiding out with the Gypsy Angels (I don't remember what they are called). When the PCs figure this out then the situation where the Sulieman is deployed is probably easier to arrange.

Are you thinking of Nark Puggsee (Deep Beyond p. 76)? They've severed ties with the TSA. Or TSA Bioweapons Directorate personnel hiding out in the Deep Beyond? Something mentioned in In The Well? Something else?

[sir_pudding]

Originally Posted by Michael Thayne

Are you thinking of Nark Puggsee (Deep Beyond p. 76)? They've severed ties with the TSA's.

I think I assumed that was a cover.