IW What Ifs...?

[patton]

Although an Infinite Worlds thread already exists, I thought it would be appropriate (and possibly better organized) to start this "What if...?" thread. I'm looking for input on creating seemingly "plausible" AHs for use in IW campaigns. Even though I pride myself on having a better-than generalist grasp of history (with, perhaps, a little too much attention to "dirty, little secrets" of the 20th century), I still know that I could use a good bit of help mapping out several AH scenarios I've thought up.

So, I'll put it to the collective, virtual think-tank of this forum. I'm looking for ANY kind of perspective on these "what if" concepts. Are they the least bit plausible and, if not, why? What factors before the divergence point could make them more plausible? What would the progression of history look like from the divergence point?

Here are three "what ifs" to start with. Feel free to throw in more. Also, feel free to let me know if there is any AH literature that cover these ideas.

1. What if... the Soviets and Cuba did not "stand down" during the Cuban Missile Crisis resulting in a hot war at the height of the Cold War?

2. What if... the "Wall Street Coup" against FDR in '33 proceeded despite Smedley Butler's rejection? For references see, GURPS Weird War II, page 30; or http://home.iprimus.com.au/korob/fdtcards/Butler.html; or any of numerous other conspiracy books and sites. My personal speculation would be a chain reaction of small civil wars possibly leading to a balkanized US a la Crimson Skies.

3. What if... a West African civilization thrived and progressed to the point that it was able to stave off European and Islamic invasions? What would it take for such a civilization to happen?

There... have at it...

[Gudiomen]

3. Probably a different culture, like native americans (north and south) their primary drive was never technological advancement, but simply to be. This remains evident today as african tribesmen keep living the way their ancestors did. Or in Brazilian indians, who use modern technology, but rarely participate actively in technological advancement, living essencialy like their forefathers (this is a generalization, offcourse).

Other than this, I'd say resources... the desertification of the Saara, the general hardship of african lands are the main cause for small number of people (due to small quantities of natural resources). Changes would have to be made to the geolocial fromation of western/northern africa... to a vegetation and animal life richness more similar to China, Brazil or India... but definately a culture change to a more competitive, agressive culture. Possibly unification under a kindom or empire, that way a single agressive, competitive individual could change the culture and amass resources, even without geological changes...

So I'd say unification under a powerful Western Africa Kindom/Empire.

[patton]

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

3. Probably a different culture...

Well, on thing I was thinking off was the possibility of a Carthaginian outpost/colony somewhere on the Sub-Saharan coast growing into an empire. I can't help think I've heard that as an AH scenario someplace else...?

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

Other than this, I'd say resources... the desertification of the Saara,... Changes would have to be made to the geolocial fromation of western/northern africa...

ooh, now there's a BIG WHAT IF! What if the desertification never happened? How could you pull that of?

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

...the general hardship of african lands are the main cause for small number of people (due to small quantities of natural resources). to a vegetation and animal life richness more similar to China, Brazil or India...

Would that be the case with the Sub-Saharan region?

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

Possibly unification under a kindom or empire, that way a single agressive, competitive individual could change the culture and amass resources, even without geological changes...

That's what I'm looking for... my grasp of African history is VERY bad... but weren't there some fairly large civilizations in East Africa that fell apart?

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

So I'd say unification under a powerful Western Africa Kindom/Empire.

Would there be such a thing prior to Islamic migrations? Ethiopia, maybe?

[Gudiomen]

ooh, now there's a BIG WHAT IF! What if the desertification never happened? How could you pull that of?

you can do it with a number of srew-with-the-eco-system ways... importation of foreign plants and animals might to it, or a mountain range here or there, or you can divert the Nile if you realy want something extreme. Symplest way would be foreign vegetation. Also note that the Sahara desert was largely increased by farming of the local area, without extensive farming desertification would be greately slowed down, though I couldn't say how much.

That's what I'm looking for... my grasp of African history is VERY bad... but weren't there some fairly large civilizations in East Africa that fell apart?

Egypt for one (North-East Africa)... though "falling appart" is rather extreme. It was overtaken by muslims, but anciente egypt's caucasion heritage is, well... ancient history. Id say the causes of the fall where simply massively more numerous and belicouse forces. Although Alexander the Great's finger had some poking around Egypt as well (Cleopatra being one of the most known decendants of the helenistic influences).
Id suggest you go about it in two ways, or more... don't just make western africa tougher, but make it's enemies weaker or more divided, another conflict could have delayed or weakened the initial attacks, giving the locals time to organize and mount defenses...

Would there be such a thing prior to Islamic migrations? Ethiopia, maybe?

It's possible, though unlikely. If you want to make historical changes like that Id suggest getting a head start on the invasions, and build up a decent basis for a kindom. Most large empires where forged by men that unified various cultures, and although short lived, provided comercial, diplomatical and cultural basis for later unification. Such was the case with Helenistic, Roman, Byzantine, Mogolian empires... (arguably, these didn't last very much, or mainained coheseveness, but even the mongolian rule formed the basis for important Chinese dynasties...).

I'd amass several factors, it will be even more fun for the PCs to discover the various factors contributing. A single WHAT IF is usualy unrealistical or radical, or has to occur within a reasonable time scale to allow cascade effect.

[DrTemp]

I believe the most interesting AH's are those which are not oo far away from our own world. Centrum, for example, is actually very alien, because the divergence point is too far away. Reich 5 is alien too, but it looks somewhat familiar, because everybody knows 20th century history.

So I'd propose several 20th century AH's:

-Germany defeated France in 1914 (because the Schlieffen plan worked perfectly, which it could have), Russia in 1916 and made peace with Great Britain later that year. France recovers, but becomes a fascist anti-semitic dictatorship in the process...

-Georg Elser was successful in assassinating Hitler in 1939. The war against Poland was postponed until the Nazis had completed their struggle for succession. As a consequence, German scientists developed the Atomic Bomb in the summer of 1945, only months after the allied invasion in the Normandy, and nuked London and Moscow using V2 rockets, triggering an immediate armystice. A Cold War followed, which ended with the collapse of Nazi Germany for internal reasons. In the pacific, Japan was not nuked since the Atomic bomb was identified as "a tool of evil regimes" by president Truman.

-TheThird World War between the western Allied and the Soviet Union, PR of China and their allies started in 1954, with the latter being defeated early in 1957. Communism is never a real threat to capitalism, which results in unprecedented laissez-fair capitalism everywhere triggering another world economic crisis worse than that of 1929. Fascism is thus again becoming popular in some nations.

-The Third World War started in 1977, leading to utter destruction of Earth's biosphere. All are dead.

-Some terrorists captured a Soviet nuclear arsenal in 1994, triggering a limited exchange of nukes. This world is much poorer than Homeline.

-Some nuts guy is elected president of the United States in 2000, who slowly transforms it into a dictatorship. By 2010, it is, and becomes the European Union's Cold War enemy.

[jkelly]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

-Some nuts guy is elected president of the United States in 2000, who slowly transforms it into a dictatorship. By 2010, it is, and becomes the European Union's Cold War enemy.

This sounds oddly familiar...

Oh, I know why. It's somewhat similar to one of Heinlein's "Future History" stories, except that was an explicitly Christian dictatorship. In any case, many of Heinlein's "Future History" stories would make for nice, simple Alternate twentieth-century histories.

[patton]

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

Egypt for one (North-East Africa)... though "falling appart" is rather extreme.

Aargh! Crapple! My dyslexia kicked! I meant to say "weren't there some fairly large civilizations in WEST Africa that fell apart?"

Originally Posted by Gudiomen

I'd amass several factors, it will be even more fun for the PCs to discover the various factors contributing. A single WHAT IF is usualy unrealistical or radical, or has to occur within a reasonable time scale to allow cascade effect.

Agreed, especially in such a broad scenario.

[GoatRider]

Originally Posted by jkelly

This sounds oddly familiar...

Oh, I know why. It's somewhat similar to one of Heinlein's "Future History" stories, except that was an explicitly Christian dictatorship. In any case, many of Heinlein's "Future History" stories would make for nice, simple Alternate twentieth-century histories.

Doesn't seem very "alternate" to me.

[patton]

All cool ideas... but a few questions...

Originally Posted by DrTemp

...As a consequence, German scientists developed the Atomic Bomb in the summer of 1945, only months after the allied invasion in the Normandy, and nuked London and Moscow using V2 rockets, triggering an immediate armystice. A Cold War followed, which ended with the collapse of Nazi Germany for internal reasons. In the pacific, Japan was not nuked since the Atomic bomb was identified as "a tool of evil regimes" by president Truman.

Good scenario though I'm a little unclear on how the delayed succession results in a German A-bomb. Is this because Hitler isn't around to throw things off track by favoring the heavy water process? Also, what would be the consequences in the Pacific?

Originally Posted by DrTemp

TheThird World War between the western Allied and the Soviet Union, PR of China and their allies started in 1954, with the latter being defeated early in 1957.

What would prevent this from turning into a "limited" nuclear war?

Originally Posted by DrTemp

Fascism is thus again becoming popular in some nations.

At what date would you set this timeline?

Originally Posted by DrTemp

Some nuts guy is elected president of the United States in 2000, who slowly transforms it into a dictatorship. By 2010, it is, and becomes the European Union's Cold War enemy.

Aw, that could NEVER happen... [wink]

[Gudiomen]

Originally Posted by GoatRider

Doesn't seem very "alternate" to me.

Just what I thought.