[Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

[Polydamas]

Ian, DrTemp specifically referred to knights using their speed to catch orc tribes trying to evade them. A force of mixed cavalry and infantry will obviously lose its advantage in strategic mobility over orcs on foot. As for the knights' retainers, some of them would have to be left behind to defend human settlements. Also, I assume that DrTemp was using the term knight in the early-medieval sense of a heavy cavalryman. Think about the population required to support a single such lance. To support a prosperous landed knight, a squire, two untitled heavy cavalry (men at arms), and four infantry requires at least 500 people or so, assuming 2% military participation reduced slightly for so many cavalry. Landless nth-sons and adventurers would rarely have retainers, although they might band together with other adventurers and mercenaries on foot. Even assuming that half a dozen such lances can beat a tribe of 200 orcs reliably, that requires several thousand people. The conquerers then have to build a fort and some farms in the wilderness. Once settled, they will be more willing to defend human territory than to help new adventurers win their land.

Good point about the elves in the deep woods killing orcs who try to hide there. But they have been scarce in central Caithness since the Banestorm, and likely avoid the nastier, rougher areas of woods.

It gets worse, though. Eventually the knights will strike an orc band which is part of a larger tribe of several thousands. Said tribe retaliates and either crushes them or causes a great deal of trouble on the borders of human territory. Even if the orcs loose and are slaightered, as seems probable, they may well eliminate the surplus human population who were available to expand in the first place! The humans would win in the long term, but a single generation seems too short.

And what about hal's point that there seems to have been no shortage of farmland in Megalos c. 1800? Megalan agriculture should be very good, although corrupt lords and serfdom should reduce this efficiency.

[DrTemp]

Originally Posted by Polydamas

[...]Landless nth-sons and adventurers would rarely have retainers, although they might band together with other adventurers and mercenaries on foot. Even assuming that half a dozen such lances can beat a tribe of 200 orcs reliably, that requires several thousand people.

I propose to just try one mounted and heavily armored knight against, say, ten Orc hunters with the GURPS combat system. Orcs built on 40 CP, the knight on, say 100 CP and with his typical equipment, possibly including some alchemical elixirs.

You'll be surprised.

The conquerers then have to build a fort and some farms in the wilderness. Once settled, they will be more willing to defend human territory than to help new adventurers win their land.

Unless they share a common hatred for orcs, or have a liege lord who demands them to do that, etc.

Good point about the elves in the deep woods killing orcs who try to hide there. But they have been scarce in central Caithness since the Banestorm, and likely avoid the nastier, rougher areas of woods.

They have magic to find any orcs entering their forests. I have no trouble with suspension of disbelief here.

It gets worse, though. Eventually the knights will strike an orc band which is part of a larger tribe of several thousands. Said tribe retaliates[...]

That makes the bold assumption that the Orcs of the time had a strong enough leader to unite several thousand orcs.

Even the orcs in the Orclands need Dwarves for that, and those groups are still smaller than "several thousands".

Don't forget, Yrth's orcs are the archetypical stupid swordfodder.

And what about hal's point that there seems to have been no shortage of farmland in Megalos c. 1800? Megalan agriculture should be very good, although corrupt lords and serfdom should reduce this efficiency.

But that was part of Megalos, and thus taxes were higher, because Megalos needs to support a decadent noble class.

[DrTemp]

Originally Posted by copeab

A horse isn't a man?

And a man can't go "for a few weeks" on poor rations and not suffer a deterioration in fighting ability.

So you say the story about the Mongols is just made up?

By what you say, there is no way they could conquer the largest empire in history only feeding themselves with what they found in the steppes of Siberia and only feeding their horses with grass- but that's what they did.

[hal]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

So you say the story about the Mongols is just made up?

By what you say, there is no way they could conquer the largest empire in history only feeding themselves with what they found in the steppes of Siberia and only feeding their horses with grass- but that's what they did.

Um - the Mongols used a far different set up than did the Western Europeans. For starters, the Mongols were less armored than most of the Europeans of say, 1200 AD. Secondly, the Mongols used something like 5 or more horses per man rather than 1 horse per man in general. Thirdly, the Mongols were heavily disciplined as compared with say, Knights. Lastly, their horses were a bit smaller than the average war horse. Food consumption was less and the workload spit amongst more horses. This makes a difference.

[hal]

Challenge accepted ;) Build the Knight, I'll build the 10 orcs and post it here...

[hal]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

A large army should not be necesssary, not at all.

How many knights does it need to wipe out a single tribe of undisciplined orcs? As hunters, they will probably not have tribes larger than 200 individuals, of which at maximum one third should be capable of fighting, none of which have anything harder than leather armor. I cannot see twenty knights failing at slaying the whole tribe. Possibly less.

Assuming a tribal size of 60 individuals, you're looking at about 20 warriors total. Those 60 individuals will be migrating over their 60 square miles of land that they claim. Larger tribes will have larger of course, larger "tribal lands". Then as another individual pointed out, some tribes will have family connections such that "group A" is part of a major tribal organization that split off from the primary tribe a few generations ago. Think Gaul or Switzerland during the times of Julius Caesar.

Also realize that the "invaders" have to find the orcs before they can attack the orcs. Throw in the fact that the hunters are used to their land and know it relatively well means that the Human knights are going to have to become very adept at both finding them and not allowing their coming to be detected. Not an easy task with a warband.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

So? Water should be abundant in Caithness, and food, well, indeed I do belive that grass will suffice for a few weeks. The horse will probably be used up in the process anyway. Don't measure by Earth's standards- for the people of Yrth, horses are mainly an object of utility.

Good horses are also horribly expensive. You do not just 'use them up' unless you have a guaranteed replacement back home, and you've more money than you know what to do with.

That was not uncommon in the middle ages. One theory about the Pied Piper of Hamelin is that he was just someone who urged people to go with him and found a new city some 200 km to the east (many recordings about such things survive) and who was exceptionally successful in doing so. Who do you think settled Brandenburg, Pommerania and the Teutonic Knight's land? Where did all those Germans come from, in your opinion?

Actually, the land was already settled. What the imports from western Europe (and recruiters went as far as France and England) brought was knowledge of advanced farming techniques and technologies (such as three field rotation and the heavy plough).

Really, finding people who are willing to settle new land in exchange for low taxes was a rather easy task in the middle ages. I imagine it won't be different on Yrth.

Actually, it wasn't that easy, except in very populous areas like Southern France until the late middle ages, when population pressure was getting fairly significant (enough to force the intensive farming of marginal hill land, and the use of four field systems that over-stained the land). Also, the low taxes and other freedoms offered tended to have to be very generous to attract settlers, and often those folks' transport had to be laid on as well.

Caithness stretches about 1,000 miles from north to south.

I get about 600 miles on average, once you discount the Great Forest.

[DrTemp]

Originally Posted by Rupert

Good horses are also horribly expensive. You do not just 'use them up' unless you have a guaranteed replacement back home, and you've more money than you know what to do with.

Well, we've got all this new land for free... :-> Anyway, of course you don't "use up" your horses lightheartedly. But really, the modern attitude of feeding them the best stuff available seems highly unlikely for early Caithness to me.

In general, I wonder what you think that wild horses eat?

Actually, the land was already settled.

Sure. But not by Christians, so it was deemed okay to kill those previous inhabitants.

Actually, it wasn't that easy
[...]

What's your source?

I get about 600 miles on average, once you discount the Great Forest.

I've included the area south of the River smoke.

[hal]

Originally Posted by Polydamas

hal, that does seem to be worrisome. Obviously there are game pressures for a fantasy setting to contain both substantial wilderness areas and great cities, but ideally there should be a good reason for both to exist. I suspect that Megalos has been growing rather slowly for the past few centuries, so I am not sure that imagining a Megalos of less than two million people 200 years ago makes sense. You do say that a rate of 2% growth is too high, but then why use it as an example?

How did you get such a precise figure for the land area of Caithness? Could you do the same thing for Megalos? Given its 'modest' population of 16 million, I had always felt that is was substantially smaller than the Roman Empire, or even the European half. The Megalans lack a central Mare Nostrum to speed communications, and dramatically their role is "Vast, corrupt nation with competitors on the borders" not "The only power that counts, and not a nice one."

That population density figure which you arrived at for Caithness is interesting because it roughly resembles the population density of Europe west of Russia at the low point in the sixth century (low teens per square mile). It seems reasonable for a frontier society which has only had 200 years to expand and which is forced to live without the amenities of magic and with the danger of really nasty predators and orc raids.

Was Caithness' history discussed in the earliest version of GURPS Fantasy? Perhaps the authors of GURPS Banestorm were forced to follow a history which had been set in the past without much concern for rigour. Or perhaps Phil Masters has a strong explanation available which will make perfect sense when he explains it. I hope so, since I like my fantasy to be as consistent.

DrTemp, some more thoughts about the logistical needs of medieval cavalry. For a long raid, the men will need to bring spare weapons and armour, and perhaps smiths to repair them. The knights will want servants to tend the horses and otherwise do the dirty work of campaigning. They will also want to carry along things which they don't strictly need to make camp life more comfortable. A well-equipped knight might bring half a dozen horses on campaign- a heavy one to ride into battle, a lighter horse to use the rest of the time, and several pack animals. You might get a lightly-equipped force for short border raids Spanish style, but a large army able to press into the territory of a large orc tribe and force it to battle needs a real logistics base.

Hi Polydamas,
The reason I chose to calculate the 2% rate of growth was based on the fact that historically, while growth rates were lower than that, people are claiming that we can get more "modern" type living, agriculture, etc. The nasty part about the arguments for and against growth rates either higher or lower than 2% is simple. Using 2% as the baseline, the immediate objection was "Yes, but it doesn't make sense that the population of Megalos was less than 2 Million 200 years ago". Problem is, if you take and lower the growth rate, then instead of doubling the population enough to support another Knight's holding and lance - it takes at least TWO generations to expand enough with numbers of people - which then lends credence to the fact that the expansion rates for the history of Megalos and Yrth are too inflated.

As for the precision of land area for any given region in Yrth? There is this really NIFTY program called CAMPAIGN CARTOGRAPHER PRO put out by Profantasy. It is a vector graphics mapping program which originally was high priced but now is lower priced. Something like $40 a pop now. There are a LOT of add ons you can buy including CASTLES (which has a fair number of castle floorplans I might add), dungeons, cities, and even the ability to tie in with Fractal Terrain (a nice program in and off itself). In any event - one of the benefits of CC Pro is that you can import a scanned bitmap or JPG file, set it on a layer in the program, and then draw a polygon on it. Once that polygon is stretched about and formed/shaped to match the contours of the country/nation of Yrth (In the case I used, Caithness), you hit the info key, and get the area of the polygon. VERY nifty. Could it be done with any other map of Megalos for example? Only if there was a bmp file encompassing all of Megalos with the scale on the map. Then, I'd have to import it to CC Pro, make a polygon that fit over all of the contours of the boundaries (shorelines, land boundaries ect) and then do a "Area of polygon".
All in all, I would estimate about maybe 2 hours labor to figure that out.

In response to your question about previous canon material acting as a constraint upon Phil, you'd have to ask him. One thing I know from the material I own - there is very little information on the population levels in various nations of Yrth. One thing mentioned in earlier documents was the fact that the King of Caithness is related to Lord Peredur of Durham. His mother is Lord Peredur's Niece. That would have made the Queen Mother a cousin to Lady Bronwyn's deceased parents. I posted on that relationship once here on the Forums ;)

What I find interesting about the claim that Caithness was settled by the Duke of Craine is this:

The population figures for Caithness were never designated until GURPS BANESTORM. As I am showing now with the math, a population that expands at a rate of 2% would have required an intitial colonization population of 310,000 in order to grow to the size of 3 million within 200 years. You can explain some of the problem away by saying "No, some of the 3 million population belonged originally to Megalos and they are immigrants" But as I've shown - that same 2% growth rate applied to Megalos would have set the population in Megalos at just under that of England in 1200 AD <g>. A catch 22 situation if I ever saw one. So either the population isn't growing fast enough to expand as fast as the "historians" of Yrth would have us believe, or the numbers are off and we need a larger initial population for Yrth.

What is worse about all of this in my opinion is that this could have been avoided by a simple "Ok, we made a mistake in scale on the original map." Lower the amount of land being involved, determine what the population figures should be to get the "feel" right, and you're in shape.

One of the "ideas" I almost suggested as a possibility as to how Caithness MIGHT have conquored the lands of the orcs so quickly had to do with disease. Problem is, orcs are not humans, any disease that is contagious enough to be spread between humans and/or orcs would be a cross-species disease. Add to the mix that Orcs have disease resistance +2 AND a +2 to their HT, and it becomes readily apparent that orcs aren't likely to fall prey to diseases by humans.

So, I'm back to square one as it were. If Humans do not grow at a fast rate, then the expansion is too rapid to be "realistic". It does however, preserve the notion that 200 years ago, Megalos had a population in excess of 2 million. If you use a fast enough growth rate where population doubles every 35 years (about once every two generations), then an expansion that doubles makes sense (sorta). So, which explanation does the Author of GURPS BANESTORM prefer to use? A slower growth rate so that 200 years ago Megalos had more than 2 million people - but can't explain the need or even possiblility of a fast expansion, or does the Author choose a fast expansion rate to explain the need for expansion, but then has to explain why there were only 2 Million people alive in the Empire of Megalos some 200 years ago. Damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of thing ;)

[hal]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

Well, we've got all this new land for free... :-> Anyway, of course you don't "use up" your horses lightheartedly. But really, the modern attitude of feeding them the best stuff available seems highly unlikely for early Caithness to me.

In general, I wonder what you think that wild horses eat?
.

Wild horses eat grass. Working horses NEED grains because of the higher energy to weight ratio. Even then, horses do not metabolize food very efficiently. We're not talking about "Modern attitudes" here, we're talking about the reality of what it takes to feed a horse, make him work HARD, something that our ancestors discovered the hard way on what works and doesn't work. To answer your comment about "late Caithness or Early Caithness" try calling it what it is - good hard experience. Feed it what it needs, and it performs as needed. Don't feed it what it needs and it lets you down.

Originally Posted by DrTemp

Sure. But not by Christians, so it was deemed okay to kill those previous inhabitants.
.

Killing the previous inhabitants isn't the issue here. What Rupert is getting at (or so I understand him to be saying) is that if you can get land without having to fight for it, it is better than having to fight for it. One piece of real estate doesn't require dying over versus one real estate requiring fighting - which would YOU choose to move to with your wife and 4 children?

Originally Posted by DrTemp

What's your source?

His source is history. If we're talking about Feudal history, then serfs are bound to the land while freemen are not. The Freemen can come and go as they wish, but not the servii (serfs). Historically, one in 4 farmers were freemen. After the black plague, things began to change in a big way for the serfs. One benefit of pledging your freedom in exchange for land is the simple matter that in addition to getting a protector, you are also insuring that the land that is yours will pass on to your heirs. A freeman rents his land one way or another. Freemen who offer military service become Yoeman. They pay in the coin of mercenary (essentially) service to the lord who owned the land. Franklins are just richer freemen who don't own military service for the land they hold, but owe military service none the less due to the laws of England (historically speaking).
If Megalos is not a fuedal style of setting, then you STILL have servii class personnel (it is after all, a ROMAN term denoting people who owe service). What Rupert is trying to tell you is that people don't just get into a car, travel 200 miles and relocate on a whim. The "source" for this is just plain common sense.
Imagine how much a bushel of grain weighs. Then further imagine that you're carrying the seedstock of your farm with you while you travel. This is something you may not eat now because you need it to produce more grain for the next growing season. It takes 4 bushels of barely to sow an acre. It takes 2 bushels of wheat to sow an acre of wheat. I think it takes 3 bushels of peas to sow an acre. Net yields per acre? 16 or so for Barley, 8 or so for wheat, and 10 or so for peas. At about 50 lbs per bushel, you can begin to see why the farmer might be hauling about 900 lbs of seedstock that he can't even eat. Factor in the food requirements for travel, then the food requirements to eat while waiting for the crop to grow, etc - and you can begin to see why it is not easy to just pick up and go 100 miles to a new location.
And finally - where did all these 'free people" come from - those 1 in 6 megalanians willing to move to the new lands? Probably from western Megalos. 310,000 people is enough for about two whole duchies plus change. Do you think the nobles are going to be happy at losing 1/6th the production and tax base of all of the empire in one fell swoop? Somehow, I suspect not.

As stated in other of my posts - either the growth rate is high and the original population of Megalos and Caithness are as I've calculated, or, the grow rate is relatively low (and lower yet for Caithness because of the lack of magically augumented farming) and the population expansion written as "Yrth history" becomes invalid. You can't have it both ways. I calculate that if you have a growth of 1/2 of 1 percent, that the colonization population of Caithness needs to be 1.7 Million people in order to reach a population of 3 million 200 years later. Likewise, the population of Megalos with a growth rate of .005 is about 8.99 Million in order to have a population of 16 million people 200 years later. 1.7 million out of 8.99 million still works out to be roughly 1 in 6 had to migrate out of Megalos to start a colony called "Caithness".