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Old 01-20-2006, 02:14 PM   #11
Rolando
 
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

I will love to see some more on this topic!
e23 or else...

maybe in the forums we can make something about it...
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Old 01-21-2006, 09:28 AM   #12
hal
 
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert
The settlement of Caithness by humans tells us that Megalan colonists can, over a period of time, push an orc population off its land. This need not have involved much 'real' military might, and those that did it could well have stayed in Caithness.
I deliberately held off responding to this post and a later post by Phil - so I could put my answer together in a manner that was not overtly argumentative yet hopefully presented some of my concerns in a more rational light. If I step on toes here, my apologies in advance...

By my calculations, Caithness as a nation, excluding "The great forest" covers some 260,835 square miles. The Elves of Yrth originally intended to put an end to the orc populations by use of a Bane spell - which later became the infamous BANESTORM. The elves, suffering from constant harassment by the orcs, decided to put paid to the Orcs and suffered a catestrophic spell backfire in a ceremonial casting of the researched Bane spell. Poof, gone was the Elven homeland (to become the great desert). So - how many orc tribe members were there? How many do you expect to see in Caithness? Lets try setting the population density of orcs to 1 per square mile. This gives us over 260,000 orcs. In 22 years, do you honestly believe that the Humans could have pushed the orcs out of Caithness by mere colonization displacement?

1784: Son of Duke of Craine organizes a colonization push. Within 6 years, this effort would be almost extinquished not once, but twice.

1800: Established Redhall

1812: Pushed the Orcs to the edge of the desert.

That is a period of 22 maybe 23 years. A population density of Modern Caithness (ie, 2006?) is 3 million divided by 260,835 square miles or 11.55 people per square mile. In 1800, this density would have been less than modern day times. Assuming that a "manor" holds a population of approximately 250 people, they'd need approximately 2 square miles of land. That's a density of about 125 people per square mile. For every "manor" created, to get a density in line with what is listed for Caithness in Modern BANESTORM, you'd need another 19.8 square miles of land totally unoccupied to add to the 2 square miles of land already allocated to the manor (enough to support one knight, one squire, and say 3 to 5 light cavalry). Those orcs have a fairly spacious area to dance/manuever around in. The more fights they have where they lose against the knights, the more reluctant they will be to stand up against the "knights". The further the knights get from their bases, the longer their logistical trail, the more "impossible" it will be to fight against the orcs. To expect that these settlers could displace the orcs in 23 years causes me to push the "I believe" button in order to suspend my disbelief. Big time. Then couple that fact with another...

Rome in its heyday had some 65 million people give or take circa 170 AD or so. Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems as though Megalos occupies a far larger spread of land than Rome ever did, contains only 25% of Rome's population and is expected to have produced enough population pressure to expand - this at time being listed as 2000+ AD, instead of 1800 AD?

Lets look at this from another angle. What is the starting base population that Caithness needed in order to settle the lands of Caithness to its present population of 3 million from 1790 on up to 2006. What does the population growth have to be in order to accomplish this? Using a baseline 2% growth rate, I calculate that the starting "seed" population for the colonization had to have been around 310,000 people. That is a LOT of people to start a colonization effort. My mind boggles at the ideas presented thus far in BANESTORM:

1) there are no population pressure issues at hand, yet people expand out.
2) with all of the magical creatures in existence, mankind is no longer the dominant species. When threatened, population centers cluster for mutual protection, not expand. Why did population centers expand away from each other rather than cluster?
3) with population densities in the low tens (if that), why are the borders so far flung?
4) with so much land to manuever in, why would the orcs not be able to HIDE effectively from a concentrated effort in a region where magic might just as well not exist?

Cause and effect: things happen because of definable situations and/or pressures. Absent such pressures - the only way to explain certain aspects of BANESTORM is either:

a) the original authors didn't know their stuff and just pulled numbers and narratives out of thin air (to put it politely)
b) the original authors didn't care, and wanted a narrative that sounds good
c) something else?

The easiest solution to many of my original "complaints" regarding population densities would be simply to shrink the original scales of the maps down so that the numbers make sense.
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Old 01-21-2006, 09:50 AM   #13
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal
[...]
Assuming that a "manor" holds a population of approximately 250 people, they'd need approximately 2 square miles of land. That's a density of about 125 people per square mile. For every "manor" created, to get a density in line with what is listed for Caithness in Modern BANESTORM, you'd need another 19.8 square miles of land totally unoccupied to add to the 2 square miles of land already allocated to the manor (enough to support one knight, one squire, and say 3 to 5 light cavalry). Those orcs have a fairly spacious area to dance/manuever around in. The more fights they have where they lose against the knights, the more reluctant they will be to stand up against the "knights". The further the knights get from their bases, the longer their logistical trail, the more "impossible" it will be to fight against the orcs.
[...]
Two things:


1) A medieval cavalry force does not need that much "logistics" at all. All they really need is food and water, which the land offers if you are not reluctant to eat rabbits and the like.
2) It is quite probable that the orcs have tried to attack the larger human settlements with their whole tribe or several allied tribes, and failed utterly against the knights of Caithness. That would be a shock to the surviving orcs and might convince them to leave the land entirely, going west to fight against other orcs rather than being trampled down by the humans again.


Quote:
1) there are no population pressure issues at hand, yet people expand out.
Oh yes, there are- only one of the lord's sons can inherit the land, so we need new land... you see.

Quote:
2) with all of the magical creatures in existence, mankind is no longer the dominant species. When threatened, population centers cluster for mutual protection, not expand. Why did population centers expand away from each other rather than cluster?
Mankind seems to be pretty muh the dominant species on Yrth- what exactly are you refering to? Number of species is not identical to number of members of each species.

Quote:
3) with population densities in the low tens (if that), why are the borders so far flung?
The need for new land (see above), inefficiency of agricultural methods, a larger than usual wealth in cattle or sheep, the habit of hunting... lots of things, actually.

Quote:
4) with so much land to manuever in, why would the orcs not be able to HIDE effectively from a concentrated effort in a region where magic might just as well not exist?
Because a knight on horseback is a lot faster than any orc tribe. Because a population density in the low teens per square mile still means that you have a village every three miles. Because the orcs are very afraid of humans (but would, of course, never admit it).

I am really fond of checking a setting's assumptions and finding loopholes that require to creatively fix them. But I believe there are not too many of them in Caithness.
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Old 01-21-2006, 11:09 AM   #14
hal
 
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTemp
Two things:
1) A medieval cavalry force does not need that much "logistics" at all. All they really need is food and water, which the land offers if you are not reluctant to eat rabbits and the like.
2) It is quite probable that the orcs have tried to attack the larger human settlements with their whole tribe or several allied tribes, and failed utterly against the knights of Caithness. That would be a shock to the surviving orcs and might convince them to leave the land entirely, going west to fight against other orcs rather than being trampled down by the humans again.
For the record - you need to research what is needed for the care of horses. It is NOT what you think it is. Water needs and food needs for a working horse is much higher than you think. Grazing on open land is not effective enough to maintain a mounted force carrying armored humans. You need to carry oats and you need to make sure that those carrying your supplies have supplies and so forth. A baggage train is neccessary for all of that. Horses are food hogs when it comes to constant work, and their water needs go up beyond belief.

As for Orcs attacking human settlements and getting wiped out by human inginuity begs the question of "Ah, the Elves needed a BANE spell to put paid to the orcs just to handle them, but humans can handle them better?" Something rots in Denmark with that reasoning.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTemp
Oh yes, there are- only one of the lord's sons can inherit the land, so we need new land... you see.
So every what, 10 to 20 years you need more land for the 2nd born and 3rd born son? Problem with that logic is that you need support personnel to expand. As I mentioned - a fief of roughly 2 square miles is needed to sustain a Knight, his squire, and 3 to 5 mounted men-at-arms. That works out to 250 people you need in addition to those 5 to 8 fighting men. That kind of population expansion is good - but would you expand from a nice safe community where there are those willing and able to help within 3 hour's notice, or would you go miles and miles further away - say, 15 miles, just to pick a new place for your new holding? At 5 miles travel, you'd need to send a runner to the nearest place. Call it at best, an hour's travel. Then expect that they need a general call to get their response team together. Call that a half hour. Then rush to the defense of your neighbor 1/2 hour away. But remember - you MIGHT be heading into an ambush. But lets call it an hour and a half for the quickest response. Now, take that 15 mile journey. Call it roughly 5 hours travel. Call it another 5 hours back. Then, call it 1/2 hour muster time for a quick weak response. Which would YOU want to choose for your new location? This expansion happens what, every 10 to 20 years?!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTemp
Mankind seems to be pretty muh the dominant species on Yrth- what exactly are you refering to? Number of species is not identical to number of members of each species.
When I am talking about dominant species, I'm talking about a preditor/prey relationship. Suppose you have to deal with a series of griffons - BIG hunking predetors right? They happen to be big enough and nasty enough that you have some serious troubles dealing with them. Mankind is no longer the dominant species under those circumstances - until he manages to mount a concentrated effort to exterminate those predetors. Ever try hunting for any one specific predetor whose hunting range is roughly 10 to 30 square miles?


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTemp
The need for new land (see above), inefficiency of agricultural methods, a larger than usual wealth in cattle or sheep, the habit of hunting... lots of things, actually.
England's population density circa 1200 AD was approximately 30 to 40 people per square mile. Some sections of England, especially during the time just after the rebellions against King William the Conqueror, were down to about 5 people per square mile. France ended up with populations in excess of twice England's per square mile and they both had HUGE regions of land that were unsettled or largely unpopulated. As I pointed out above - a single manor needs at most, some 2 square miles (1280 acres of land) for farming purposes to sustain 250 people plus cattle plus horses (by cattle, I mean goats, sheep, cows, etc). That is a population density of 125 using poor farming methods (ie 2 crop rotation rather than 3 crop rotation). As for habits of hunting? If you're going TRUE medieval flavor here, peasants weren't allowed to hunt, freemen were not permitted to hunt on the lord's domain - so that kills that notion pretty quickly. Best guess estimates is that in general, it takes about 1 square mile per person to sustain a hunter/gatherer culture. Normal agricultural methods can sustain over 100 per square mile - the rest is just the distance between manors and villages and the like.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTemp
Because a knight on horseback is a lot faster than any orc tribe. Because a population density in the low teens per square mile still means that you have a village every three miles. Because the orcs are very afraid of humans (but would, of course, never admit it).
A horse ridden for extended periods of time generally manages no better a pace than a man does. The larger the fighting force, the longer it takes to decamp. Fighting atop horses also requires terrain favorable to such tactics. Riding a horse at breakneck speed across an uneven meadow can and does cause accidents where horses stumble, break a leg, etc. You don't see this in the movies, nor do you see it in games. But when you ride horses, you become VERY aware of this. Also? Most movies with galloping horses tend to use STUNTMEN. There is a reason for this...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTemp
I am really fond of checking a setting's assumptions and finding loopholes that require to creatively fix them. But I believe there are not too many of them in Caithness.
So what you're saying is that the population density issue isn't a "realism" issue in your eyes?
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Old 01-21-2006, 11:11 AM   #15
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qoltar
That would be a supplement that I would buy.

The Caithness / Megalos War. With plenty of maps, 4th edition NPCs statted out, and optional timelines for different versions of the "WAR". Make it under $24.00 - and you've got a deal. Maybe some cardboard characters thrown in representing both sides?? A sheet showing the colors and Coat of arms for both sides?? Their National flags and colors would be nice too.

- E.W. Charlton
Sign me up. I'd so buy that myself. In my campeigns point in the timeline (late 80s') there's no open warfare, but there is skirmishing still going on from time to time, and knowing what happened historically makes it easier to figure out what would happen in a new fight.

I'd also totally pay for something on the civil war in Caithness.
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Old 01-21-2006, 11:48 AM   #16
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Running the numbers - mind you, a 2% population expansion is NOT historically accurate, but lets use it for an example:

A population of 250 people need 35 years to double in population. Assuming that this excess population splits off from the original 250 population - to create a new manor, a Noble would have to wait 35 years before he can set up a fief for his son. The limitation to expansion is both an economic as well as time.

Back tracking on the population of Megalos to the year of 1890 - assuming no significant population increases as a result of banestorm refugees, Megalos had a population of about 1.648 million people. From this value, Caithness took its 310,000 to start its own country? 310,000 is roughly 15% of the entire population of Megalos at that point in time. That is like saying that 1 in every 6 people in Megalos decided "Hey, I want out of this stinking place, let me move to Caithness, where magic works less frequently, orcs are waiting to pounce on me and my family, annnd, best of all, I don't have to settle on land already cleared that could hold up to 10 times what it currently does for me and my family - never mind that I've got kin here. Never mind that I don't have to work as hard clearing trees and plowing unplowed land..."
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Old 01-21-2006, 11:56 AM   #17
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Geez Hal & others,
Bruno & I have a better idea - Moitivate SJGames with money to come out with Yrth goodness.

Why not BAnestorm/YRTH adventure starters packaged like those min-adventures that Paizo publishing is doing?? Those are only $14.95.

I'm willing to pay 24 bucks for an Yrth-focused starter thing.

Either Caithness/Megalos war.,...Or Caithness politics & war.

- E.W. Charlton
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Old 01-21-2006, 12:36 PM   #18
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

Hal, where did you get the population figures for Megalos? I apparently suck at navigating Banestorm :P

Wherever they come from, I'm quite happy to over quintuple them based on area of the empire combined with more or less systemic use of magic to improve crop production and living conditions. I'm also willing to bet some more modern ideas of agriculture (the ones that don't depend on artificial fertilizers or that can substitute magical production enhancers) may have leaked through via banestormed folks over the centuries.

If the base level of the population is raised enough you produce the pressure that encourages the settlement of Caithness.

As for the Humans vs. Orcs - the time period seems a little hurried, but I get the general impression that Humans just don't find Orcs to be particularly troublesom unless they have outside leadership (exiled dwarves, frex). I can only presume the Elves either are horrible at war, or just couldn't repopulate fast enough and were loosing what became a very long term war of attrition.
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Old 01-21-2006, 12:36 PM   #19
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

hal, that does seem to be worrisome. Obviously there are game pressures for a fantasy setting to contain both substantial wilderness areas and great cities, but ideally there should be a good reason for both to exist. I suspect that Megalos has been growing rather slowly for the past few centuries, so I am not sure that imagining a Megalos of less than two million people 200 years ago makes sense. You do say that a rate of 2% growth is too high, but then why use it as an example?

How did you get such a precise figure for the land area of Caithness? Could you do the same thing for Megalos? Given its 'modest' population of 16 million, I had always felt that is was substantially smaller than the Roman Empire, or even the European half. The Megalans lack a central Mare Nostrum to speed communications, and dramatically their role is "Vast, corrupt nation with competitors on the borders" not "The only power that counts, and not a nice one."

That population density figure which you arrived at for Caithness is interesting because it roughly resembles the population density of Europe west of Russia at the low point in the sixth century (low teens per square mile). It seems reasonable for a frontier society which has only had 200 years to expand and which is forced to live without the amenities of magic and with the danger of really nasty predators and orc raids.

Was Caithness' history discussed in the earliest version of GURPS Fantasy? Perhaps the authors of GURPS Banestorm were forced to follow a history which had been set in the past without much concern for rigour. Or perhaps Phil Masters has a strong explanation available which will make perfect sense when he explains it. I hope so, since I like my fantasy to be as consistent.

DrTemp, some more thoughts about the logistical needs of medieval cavalry. For a long raid, the men will need to bring spare weapons and armour, and perhaps smiths to repair them. The knights will want servants to tend the horses and otherwise do the dirty work of campaigning. They will also want to carry along things which they don't strictly need to make camp life more comfortable. A well-equipped knight might bring half a dozen horses on campaign- a heavy one to ride into battle, a lighter horse to use the rest of the time, and several pack animals. You might get a lightly-equipped force for short border raids Spanish style, but a large army able to press into the territory of a large orc tribe and force it to battle needs a real logistics base.
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Old 01-21-2006, 12:41 PM   #20
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Default Re: [Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

As for Caithness History and the pushing back of the Orcs....

In the intial war - Megalos likely helped the early caithness explorers and settlers. There was more "people"/bodies to help in the fighting then. What happens in a war of conquest and territory-taking when its over??

Some stay ,...some go 'home". So that big conflict had more fighting than what wound up settling Caithness. It works itself out over the long haul of history.

Also in some ways think of it as a Fantasy version of the musical "Paint Your Wagon" some stay and settle ...some were born under a wandering star.

- E.W. Charlton
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Last edited by Qoltar; 02-17-2011 at 11:52 AM.
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