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Old 08-12-2018, 11:08 PM   #31
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: Critical success / failure on more than 3 dice

The chance of rolling a 2 or 12 on 2d6 is 1/36 each, so 2.8%, not 0.28%.

I don't think I'd want the chance of auto-success to actually increase for harder rolls.
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Old 08-13-2018, 01:11 AM   #32
Rick_Smith
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Coquitlam B.C.
Default Re: Critical success / failure on more than 3 dice

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skarg View Post
The chance of rolling a 2 or 12 on 2d6 is 1/36 each, so 2.8%, not 0.28%.

I don't think I'd want the chance of auto-success to actually increase for harder rolls.
Thanks for the correction, I'll fix the post! Rick
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Old 08-13-2018, 12:06 PM   #33
mcguire
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Default Re: Critical success / failure on more than 3 dice

Quote:
Originally Posted by ak_aramis View Post
The auto-success range is formulaic: On n dice where n>1, a=(3×(n-1))-1 or less succeeds. The bad results mirror it, so f=7n-a or more
According to my rather crappy coding and impersonation of a statistician, that leads to results that start at 4.63% for 3 dice, rise to 6.12% for 7 dice, then decline gradually:

Code:
5 or less on 3 dice: 4.63%
8 or less on 4 dice: 5.4%
11 or less on 5 dice: 5.88%
14 or less on 6 dice: 6.08%
17 or less on 7 dice: 6.12%
20 or less on 8 dice: 6.07%
23 or less on 9 dice: 5.96%
26 or less on 10 dice: 5.8%
29 or less on 11 dice: 5.62%
32 or less on 12 dice: 5.43%
35 or less on 13 dice: 5.23%
38 or less on 14 dice: 5.02%
41 or less on 15 dice: 4.81%
...
71 or less on 25 dice: 3.03%
...
146 or less on 50 dice: 0.9%
...
293 or less on 99 dice: 0.09%
I always assumed the intent was to keep critical successes and failures around 5%, to counterbalance very high experience levels. I would guess the "3 special dice" approach would be the closest to that, at least for more than 6 or 8 dice.

You all do realize that with Tunnels and Trolls, or at least the spin-off, Monsters and Mazes, you could simulate the clash of giant armies, if you had enough dice.

Last edited by mcguire; 08-13-2018 at 12:11 PM.
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Old 08-13-2018, 07:04 PM   #34
ak_aramis
 
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: Alsea, OR
Default Re: Critical success / failure on more than 3 dice

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcguire View Post
According to my rather crappy coding and impersonation of a statistician, that leads to results that start at 4.63% for 3 dice, rise to 6.12% for 7 dice, then decline gradually:

Code:
5 or less on 3 dice: 4.63%
8 or less on 4 dice: 5.4%
11 or less on 5 dice: 5.88%
14 or less on 6 dice: 6.08%
17 or less on 7 dice: 6.12%
20 or less on 8 dice: 6.07%
23 or less on 9 dice: 5.96%
26 or less on 10 dice: 5.8%
29 or less on 11 dice: 5.62%
32 or less on 12 dice: 5.43%
35 or less on 13 dice: 5.23%
38 or less on 14 dice: 5.02%
41 or less on 15 dice: 4.81%
...
71 or less on 25 dice: 3.03%
...
146 or less on 50 dice: 0.9%
...
293 or less on 99 dice: 0.09%
I always assumed the intent was to keep critical successes and failures around 5%, to counterbalance very high experience levels. I would guess the "3 special dice" approach would be the closest to that, at least for more than 6 or 8 dice.

You all do realize that with Tunnels and Trolls, or at least the spin-off, Monsters and Mazes, you could simulate the clash of giant armies, if you had enough dice.
I've done that.
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