11-14-2017, 10:06 PM | #1 |
Join Date: May 2010
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[Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
I considered titling this post "minimum technological capabilities for precursors", but people tend to read "precursors" as "sufficiently advanced aliens" (i.e. ones whose technology is indistinguishable from magic), which is very much not what I want. Rather, I'm interested in this: if you have a civilization that's been around for a million years, but the setting is making very conservative assumptions about what things are possible in principle, what technology will they have?
The answer is probably close to what Ultra-Tech calls "conservative hard SF", i.e. mostly limited to TL9, but that can't be the whole answer. For example, some form of Dyson sphere is almost certainly possible to build, it would just take a long time. Many examples of human genetic engineering that Bio-Tech lists as TL10-11 are almost certainly possible as well. In particular, if we know something exists in nature, and it isn't at odds with the energy requirements of a large brain, then it's probably possible to engineer a parahuman that has the trait, even if it takes centuries of trial and error. Conversely, some TL9 technologies are of questionable feasibility. For example, the idea of a fast-acting and safe "sleep gas" (UT160) is highly questionable, no matter how much Hollywood seems to believe such a thing already exists. Thoughts? What other TL10-11 tech belongs on the "definitely" list? What other TL9 tech belongs on the "questionable" list? |
11-14-2017, 10:45 PM | #2 |
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
Let the soothing voice of *Elmer Fudd tell you all about this:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZF...6grh54g/videos The answer: Some frankly amazing stuff. * Given that his channel icon is the aforementioned character, I think it's ok to make that reference. :) |
11-14-2017, 11:06 PM | #3 |
Wielder of Smart Pants
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ventura CA
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
If you have the capability to build a Dyson sphere, you are a Type II civilization and a lot of things are available to you. You could also build any class of stellar engine. You've ended poverty, probably also disease, and have likely achieved some level of biological immortality if you are into that. You have survived for a million years at this level so you aren't probably worried about civilizational instability. Your are probably in it for the long haul now, so you are definitely looking to move eventually, so you may be using your entire star system as a starship and are using it to move closer to a younger system with habitable planets. You might be worried about the Great Filter, so you might be trying to figure out where everyone else is. You might be interested in becoming a Type III civilization, especially since you may also be worried about the end of the stellar era, and taking control of the galaxy is a good first step to emigrating to a new universe.
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11-14-2017, 11:08 PM | #4 | |
Join Date: May 2010
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
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Skimming the video titles, it's not clear that all of them describe things that will definitely be possible one day. For example, there's a video on the Alcubierre drive, which probably requires exotic matter that may or may not be possible within real physics. |
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11-14-2017, 11:16 PM | #5 | |
Join Date: May 2010
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
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11-14-2017, 11:32 PM | #6 | ||||
Wielder of Smart Pants
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ventura CA
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
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Besides, they have a million year old civilization that hasn't collapsed from war and they have a very conservative approach to new technology, that says "really old people" to me; they definitely have something that endures and gives them a long view. Quote:
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Or maybe they are playing video games on a mastroika brain, and waiting to go extinct because that is the inevitable doom for all things in this universe. Last edited by sir_pudding; 11-14-2017 at 11:38 PM. |
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11-14-2017, 11:57 PM | #7 | |
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
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Pick a likely-looking video and watch it. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't good. :) |
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11-15-2017, 04:12 AM | #8 |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
Outside of what we think of as hard sciences: they have a culture that has managed to cope with what we would see as insanely low growth rates. A 2.3% growth rate, which we consider reasonably healthy though not spectacular, is a factor of 10 increase in economy in a hundred years, which will put you at a type II civilization in about 1,000 years and a type III in another 1,000 years, and would consume the entire energy output of the observable universe in another 1,000 years. If they're 'only' a type II civilization in a million years, their growth rate is 0.0023%.
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11-15-2017, 08:30 AM | #9 | |||
Join Date: May 2010
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
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11-15-2017, 08:51 AM | #10 | |
Hero of Democracy
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: far from the ocean
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Re: [Ultra-Tech] Conservative hard SF... but not implausibly conservative
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The problem is there are days of material up there, and I wouldn't describe his future as "conservative SF". Its got some strong transhuman leanings, though he tends to seriously consider whether a given option would be adopted or not. He also thinks that strong AI (or at least human level) and mind uploading are very doable, though he emphasizes the uploading, not the strong AI. From the channel:
*he actually describes how to build a "solid" ringworld without breaking the laws of physics. Its utterly nuts, but physically possible. The key is active support structures.
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