What if a nation decided to leave?

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

All this is mild, just picture your tribe's hereditary foes going off and migrating to deep space and becoming a power while your tribe remains little and poor. Bitterness would be a weak word for it...

I am still not sure what made you think that anyone emigrating to Mars or deep space would become powerful and rich because of it. Why should that be the case?

"The present British Foreign office is deeply unhappy that Barrack Obama is proud of his mother's Irish roots, and remembers that Winston Churchill had his (Obama's) grandfather tortured in prison, tortures that caused the old man's death shortly after his release."

I somehow couldn't help trying to imagine that scene. Probably something like this:

Churchill: "How many fingers am I holding up?"

Obama's Grandfather: "Four or five, I don't know...I can't see because of all that cigar smoke.....AAAAAaaaaAAAAAARRGH"

I know, I am an evil person...

[jeff_wilson]

There *is* a technology that would make multi-million-people migrations possible on a budget and that is uploading.

[Flyndaran]

Originally Posted by jeff_wilson

There *is* a technology that would make multi-million-people migrations possible on a budget and that is uploading.

And back to bizarre lemming cult behavior.

The only way to get large numbers of localized people to move is when their present situation is horrific AND they can get a much better life in the new place.
Space/Mars will never be more hospitable and cheap than the neighborhood abutting yours here on Earth.

[Prince Charon]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

And back to bizarre lemming cult behavior.

The only way to get large numbers of localized people to move is when their present situation is horrific AND they can get a much better life in the new place.
Space/Mars will never be more hospitable and cheap than the neighborhood abutting yours here on Earth.

For groups like the Kurds, I could see large numbers, possibly even the majority, emigrating - if you are more likely to be killed staying in place than you are on Mars (or on the way to Mars), you might start looking at ticket prices.

[Flyndaran]

Originally Posted by Prince Charon

For groups like the Kurds, I could see large numbers, possibly even the majority, emigrating - if you are more likely to be killed staying in place than you are on Mars (or on the way to Mars), you might start looking at ticket prices.

But if you all have enough money to pay for launches into space and trips to Mars, you have more than enough to emigrate to another earth nation.
Sure, a couple million new citizens would be hard, but a massive influx of money can smooth over lots of issues.

[Prince Charon]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

But if you all have enough money to pay for launches into space and trips to Mars, you have more than enough to emigrate to another earth nation.
Sure, a couple million new citizens would be hard, but a massive influx of money can smooth over lots of issues.

Ah, but that other nation wouldn't be yours, while a Martian colony very well could be.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

I am still not sure what made you think that anyone emigrating to Mars or deep space would become powerful and rich because of it. Why should that be the case?

"The present British Foreign office is deeply unhappy that Barrack Obama is proud of his mother's Irish roots, and remembers that Winston Churchill had his (Obama's) grandfather tortured in prison, tortures that caused the old man's death shortly after his release."

I somehow couldn't help trying to imagine that scene. Probably something like this:

Churchill: "How many fingers am I holding up?"

Obama's Grandfather: "Four or five, I don't know...I can't see because of all that cigar smoke.....AAAAAaaaaAAAAAARRGH"

I know, I am an evil person...

Basically, a group going off into space can get opportunities that groups staying behind can't get. Look at how hard the last three centuries have been on the German people, and how fragile their situation still is. Then look at America's past and likely future.

Pot bound plants can't grow as big and strong as plants that have enough room.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Basically, a group going off into space can get opportunities that groups staying behind can't get. Look at how hard the last three centuries have been on the German people, and how fragile their situation still is. Then look at America's past and likely future.

That's because the US was a massively valuable chunk of property that happened to be convenient to conquer because the locals weren't particularly powerful or advanced to start with and got devastated by disease. The situation in space is not equivalent, there really isn't anything that is massively valuable compared to the effort required to acquire and exploit it.

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Basically, a group going off into space can get opportunities that groups staying behind can't get. Look at how hard the last three centuries have been on the German people, and how fragile their situation still is. Then look at America's past and likely future.

Pot bound plants can grow as big and strong as plants that have enough room.

On the other hand, even the United States and Canada aren't *remarkably* better off than the stay-at-homes who remained in Great Britain, and there isn't a country in Latin America that's richer per capita than Spain.

In fact the list of recent ex-colonies better off per capita than their colonial masters at the moment seems to be Singapore, Hong Kong, United States, Canada, Australia, and Equatorial Guinea. You could maybe add Ireland vs. UK and Puerto Rico vs. Spain by stretching definitions a bit. Three of those might fit your narrative of settlements in the wilderness, but the other five don't, and the two richest of them are constrained city-states.

[Kitsune]

@Astromancer:

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Basically, a group going off into space can get opportunities that groups staying behind can't get. Look at how hard the last three centuries have been on the German people, and how fragile their situation still is. Then look at America's past and likely future.

Pot bound plants can grow as big and strong as plants that have enough room.

Originally Posted by Anthony

That's because the US was a massively valuable chunk of property that happened to be convenient to conquer because the locals weren't particularly powerful or advanced to start with and got devastated by disease. The situation in space is not equivalent, there really isn't anything that is massively valuable compared to the effort required to acquire and exploit it.

...and, after securing its own an continental island, America used that position to intervene in European wars, invariably at the side of Germany's enemies and invariably until Germany's utter defeat or even complete crushing and division. I think I still remember it dimly. Nor have I forgotten completely that far more Germans went to America than even Irish did, that they nicely integrated and contributed, getting not too much credit for it, and that they actually are by far the largest ethnic group of them all, although no one would ever suspect that, looking at US media or watching Hollywood movies and series. (I apologize for that comment, but I feel that, as a German, I am entitled to some bitterness. Just my personal opinion, of course. No use in trying to talk me out of it.)


But this isn't about Germany's tragic history, it's about the reality as presented in the THS setting. And here to simply emigrate to somewhere isn't quite enough. It depends very much on where "a people" (such as they still exist in the setting) goes to, wether it is a rich and bountiful place, possibly even one of some strategic importance.

Of course, there would be firstly the problem that to go to Mars or deep space in greater numbers would be prohibitively expensiv, so only very rich groups could afford it in the first place, very likely ceasing to be rich in the process of migration. But that would be only the beginning of the hardship that awaits them. Unless, of course, they employ the method of massive self-uploading, and limit themselves to some large computer, in which case they better emigrate to some virtual reality instead. Barsoom might be an idea.

Real Mars, even with the over-the-hill terraforming it enjoys in the setting, is still (and likely always will be) a kind of cold, low gravity version of the Australian outback with exceedingly thin air at that - a very harsh place. The asteroid belt is even less inviting. Neither place has any strategic importance, and neither offers good chances for trade, since they are far removed from most buying customers (which happen to live on Earth).

Any group emigrating to either place will not find itself repeating America's history, becoming rich and powerful, only to intervene leisurely in Earth's conflicts, to eventually dominate humanity's old homeworld...instead it would struggle for its very survival and could only hope to achieve a modicum of prosperity at best, way below the level that would be possible on Earth. Meanwhile, any "heriditary foes" (your phrasing) such a group had back on Earth would help themselves to some more of the solar system's premium real estate, probably hardly believing their good fortune.


Since your post sounded a little bit like a comment from the proverbial adventurous American to the lazy European coalchewer, let me remind you that there is presently a perfect chance for any bold US citizen to escape the pot bound plant existence of the southern 48 - right here on Earth, without even having to leave the US. Simply move to Alaska.
I have been there myself and couldn't help but to notice that the bold and brave Americans weren't exactly queuing to go there - despite the considerable tax advantages they would enjoy in that state. I very much suspect they wouldn't queue much to get to Mars (like in Bradbury's Martian Chronicles), either, not even if it is partially terraformed already. And they would have very good reason not to do so.