Statting the Solar System

[DataPacRat]

Does anyone have a good idea what the 'Resources' value for a world means, in terms of the Solar System's planets, moons, and other bodies?

I've run through some of GURPS' gravity-trade models (from 4e Space and 3e Traveller Far Trader) for a TL10 future, and have a reasonably coherent model. But as Resources varies from -2 to +2, a planet's carrying capacity might decrease or increase fourfold, which could nudge some trade routes up or down a category.

At the moment, I'm treating every body as having a final Affinity score of 0, except for Venus (-2, due to the ridiculously annoying atmosphere), Earth (8, which seems to match long-term carrying capacity projections, and thus implies its Resources score is +0), and Titan (1, since I'm presuming all those nifty organics can be exported to other worlds, for a Resources of +2). (Though I've just realized that I should ding Io's habitability down to -2 for its extreme Volcanism, which isn't reflected in the below numbers.) Anyone want to suggest any other values?


Also, might anyone care to suggest what the carrying capacity of a gas giant proper might be, for would-be colonists floating around in aerostat habitats?


I haven't decided what Earth's population is going to be, other than 'probably north of five billion'; the rest of the Solar System's population, mostly all around each worlds' carrying capacities, is around 35M people. Earth's economy is around $335T, and everywhere else totals up to around $1.56T.


I've adapted Far Trader's gravity-trade numbers by switching out its numbers for "parsecs" with "weeks of travel" with the most-common, 0.2G interplanetary drive. This gives me this set of trade-routes of BTN 7.5 or higher (picked because there's a horde of 7.0 or less):

* Main Routes (BTN 10+)
- (none)
* Feeder Routes (BTN 9.5): [$70B-$100B/year]
- Earth-Luna
* Feeder Routes (BTN 9): [$11B-$50B/year]
- Earth-Mercury
- Earth-Venus
- Earth-Mars
* Minor Routes (BTN 8.5): [$7B-$10B/year]
- Earth-Ceres
- Earth-Jupiter (Ganymede,Callisto,Io,Europa)
- Earth-Saturn (Titan)
* Minor Routes (BTN 8): [$1B-$5B/year]
- Earth-Vesta,Pallas
- Ganymede-Callisto-Io-Europa
* other routes (BTN 7.5): [$700M-$1B/year]
- Earth-Uranus
- Earth-Neptune
- Earth-Pluto,Charon
- Luna-Mercury-Venus-Mars
- Titan-Rhea

Plus, the model extends to provide another interesting route, of BTN 3.5 [$60k-$110k/year, in information rather than travel]: Earth-Alpha Centauri (if it's got a pop of 100,000)

[AlexanderHowl]

Based on the analysis of the few exobelts that we have discovered, I would say that every 4x increase (or decrease) in mass for an asteroid belt is +/-1 RVM for an asteroid belt. The NEA would be RVM-4, the Hilda Family would be RVM-3, the Centaurs would be RVM-2, each of the Jupiter Trojan RVM-1, the Main Belt RVM +0, each of the Neptunian Trojan RVM+1, and the Kuiper Belt RVM+2. The Jupiter moons should get an extra penalty for radiation, -3 for Io, -2 for Europa, and -1 for Ganymede, as they receive a lot of radiation.

Because of the 50x population multiplier, the eight belts could sustain a high population. For example, the Main Belt could sustain 1 billion people, each Neptunian Trojan 2 billion people, and the Kuiper Belt 4 billion people. Even the lesser belts would have substantial populations, 500 million for each Jupiter Trojan, 250 million for the Centaurs, 130 million for the Hilda group, and 60 million for the NEAs. For example, the NEAs would have an economy $2.8 trillion per year and, with a K of 0.001, the NEAs would have $938 billion in trade with the Earth.

[maximara]

Originally Posted by DataPacRat

Does anyone have a good idea what the 'Resources' value for a world means, in terms of the Solar System's planets, moons, and other bodies?

I've run through some of GURPS' gravity-trade models (from 4e Space and 3e Traveller Far Trader) for a TL10 future, and have a reasonably coherent model. But as Resources varies from -2 to +2, a planet's carrying capacity might decrease or increase fourfold, which could nudge some trade routes up or down a category.

The only issue is based on the Kardashev scale there is a mammoth different in terms of resources between a K2 TL10 and K3 TL10 interstellar civilization.

The problem is, asside from on brief scene in a Babylon 5 episode, there are no clear examples of a true K3 civilization.

The K3 TL10 will in all likelihood dismiss planets as places to live (instead building space habitats) and see them instead as places to mine. This changes the Resource values of a planet drastically.

[AlexanderHowl]

A K1 society will probably not need planets for mining because asteroids and comets provide enough material. A K2 society can lift materials directly from stars or harvest interstellar dust without difficulty, so they do not even need asteroids or comets. A K3 society can likely recycle dead stars and use black holes for energy sources, so they do not even need stars or interstellar dust

[maximara]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

A K1 society will probably not need planets for mining because asteroids and comets provide enough material. A K2 society can lift materials directly from stars or harvest interstellar dust without difficulty, so they do not even need asteroids or comets. A K3 society can likely recycle dead stars and use black holes for energy sources, so they do not even need stars or interstellar dust

Actually a K1 would likely still need planets as it mines asteroids and comets. Odds are they would have a Dyson swarm around their own star before even getting out of their solar system and looking at planets as little more then resources to mine when they get around K1.5 perhaps as late as K2.

A K1.5 would have little issue with lifting materials directly from stars or harvesting interstellar dust. And a K2 rather then the K3 would recycle dead stars.

Black hole and Iron star interstellar civilizations are where the whole energy structure of the Kardashev scale breaks...badly. In terms of energy they wouldn't even be K0 and yet could crush a K3 civilization like a bug if they felt so inclined and could actually interact with them.

[AlexanderHowl]

A K1 would, by definition, not have a Dyson swarm, as that would be a K2 construction. Anyway, interstellar colonization, even by STL, costs orders of magnitude less energy than constructing a Dyson Swarm. In totality, a civilization can reach K2 without making a Dyson Swarm, as they only need to consume 100 yottawatts of energy as a civilization.

Of course, I am using Sagan's K scale, where every +0.1 is a 10x increase in energy consumption. A K1 civilization uses 10 petawatts, a K2 uses 10 yottawatts, a K3 10^36 watts, etc. This is distributed across an entire civilization, so a galactic civilization with 10 billion K1 systems would be K2.

[maximara]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

A K1 would, by definition, not have a Dyson swarm, as that would be a K2 construction.

Actually by a strict reading of Classic Dyson Sphere (Dyson Swarm) in GURPS Ultra-Tech and how K2 is generally defined that is not true.

"A shell of energy collection platforms and habitats orbiting independently around a star. The star would be dimmed, but possibly still visible through gaps in the shell, although the whole sphere would shine very brightly on infrared."

"A Type II civilization, also called a stellar civilization—can use and control energy at the scale of its planetary system."

Since visible energy is escaping a Classic Dyson Sphere does not "use and control energy at the scale of its planetary system" and ergo is not K2

Furthermore at least one paper states "Dyson (1959, 1966) proposed the search for huge artificial biospheres created around a star by an intelligent species as part of its technological growth and expansion within a planetary system. This giant structure would most likely be formed by a swarm of artificial habitats and mini-planets capable of intercepting essentially all the radiant energy from the parent star."

Here, since visible energy is escaping a Classic Dyson Sphere, it is not "intercepting essentially all the radiant energy from the parent star." it is below K2. If you count that infrared radiating off the backside of the swarm as part of the radiant energy from the parent star then you can never reach K2 with a single Classic Dyson Sphere around a single star. You have to have a second Classic Dyson Sphere orbiting a second star to make up the difference.

When people talk about a "Dyson Sphere" (Dyson Swarm rarely appears in the literature) they actually mean a Rigid Dyson Sphere (TL12^)

This is all ignoring the fact that you can plop a Dyson Swarm around a Type K or M star and not reach the 10^26 watt of energy needed to hit the K2 energy threshold.

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Anyway, interstellar colonization, even by STL, costs orders of magnitude less energy than constructing a Dyson Swarm. In totality, a civilization can reach K2 without making a Dyson Swarm, as they only need to consume 100 yottawatts of energy as a civilization.

Of course, I am using Sagan's K scale, where every +0.1 is a 10x increase in energy consumption. A K1 civilization uses 10 petawatts, a K2 uses 10 yottawatts, a K3 10^36 watts, etc. This is distributed across an entire civilization, so a galactic civilization with 10 billion K1 systems would be K2.

As I said before Black hole and Iron star civilizations are where this breaks. You could have a vast interstellar Black hole/Iron star civilization running on total energy less then an incandescent 100 watt light bulb.

[whswhs]

Originally Posted by maximara

Since visible energy is escaping a Classic Dyson Sphere does not "use and control energy at the scale of its planetary system" and ergo is not K2

I think that's an overstrict use of the term "scale." Scale doesn't mean exact quantitative identity; it means comparable size or intensity. In GURPS terminology, for example, we talk of D-scale (10 HP equal 1 scaled HP) and C-scale (100 HP equal 1 scaled HP); if you inflict 1d x 10 damage that's D-scale even if it isn't equal to a D-scale target's HP. And that's a fairly orthodox usage.

[AlexanderHowl]

I think that we are talking about different things when we are talking about Black Hole civilizations. I am talking about civilizations that use black hole accretion discs to transform matter into energy at a 80% efficiency, which makes each black hole the equivalent of a K2+ civilization. I believe you are talking about theoretical civilization that would evolve in the hypothetical distant future, when energy levels would decline to a level too low to support organic life.

[maximara]

Originally Posted by whswhs

I think that's an overstrict use of the term "scale." Scale doesn't mean exact quantitative identity; it means comparable size or intensity. In GURPS terminology, for example, we talk of D-scale (10 HP equal 1 scaled HP) and C-scale (100 HP equal 1 scaled HP); if you inflict 1d x 10 damage that's D-scale even if it isn't equal to a D-scale target's HP. And that's a fairly orthodox usage.

Even with that definition you still have the situation where you have a Dyson swarm around a Type K or M star and not meet the 10^26 watt requirement for K2 (Red dwarf can go as low as 10^22 watts which is a K1.6 in terms of energy)

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

I think that we are talking about different things when we are talking about Black Hole civilizations. I am talking about civilizations that use black hole accretion discs to transform matter into energy at a 80% efficiency, which makes each black hole the equivalent of a K2+ civilization. I believe you are talking about theoretical civilization that would evolve in the hypothetical distant future, when energy levels would decline to a level too low to support organic life.

Yes I am talking about the second type of Black Hole civilization but there is nothing that say some race for some gonzo reason couldn't built one in the universe in its current state.

You can get as low at K1.6 with Red Dwarfs (M7) and this is the more common star type in the milky way. Of course you get below M7 and you his the star types that don't have normal nuclear fusion but still generate some heat. Below those are Sub-brown dwarfs which straddle the line between star and massive gas giant planet