Dungeon Fantasy Roleplaying Game Discussion Thread

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by GM Joe

As of this writing, we're at $80,825 and have a little over 19 days to go!

The Car Wars Kickstarter had half the money of which it would eventually garner as of the 10th day of the Kickstarter. So, to get an idea of what the Dungeon Fantasy Kickstarter will get, we can double the total at the end of the day yesterday ($79,680), giving us $159,360. So, basic funding and the stretch goals through $140,000 are pretty much a given, and I'd give about a 55% chance of hitting the stretch goal at $155,000. There's a small but real chance (about 1-in-3 by my primitive formula, which I think is hitting high) of hitting the $175,000 stretch goal, but anything beyond that isn't worth putting up unless it's sure to cause folks to up their pledges to get it.

[kmunoz]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

The Car Wars Kickstarter had half the money of which it would eventually garner as of the 10th day of the Kickstarter. So, to get an idea of what the Dungeon Fantasy Kickstarter will get, we can double the total at the end of the day yesterday ($79,680), giving us $159,360. So, basic funding and the stretch goals through $140,000 are pretty much a given, and I'd give about a 55% chance of hitting the stretch goal at $155,000. There's a small but real chance (about 1-in-3 by my primitive formula, which I think it hitting high) of hitting the $175,000 stretch goal, but anything beyond that isn't worth putting up unless it's sure to cause folks to up their pledges to get it.

Are the daily metrics the same up to this point, for both campaigns? That would tell us a lot more than the overall 10 day total.

[kmunoz]

I found this, which may or may not be meaningful in any way.

[Turhan's Bey Company]

Originally Posted by kmunoz

Are the daily metrics the same up to this point, for both campaigns? That would tell us a lot more than the overall 10 day total.

Here are the Kicktraq pages for Car Wars Arenas and DFRPG for anyone interested in comparisons.

[kmunoz]

Originally Posted by Turhan's Bey Company

Here are the Kicktraq pages for Car Wars Arenas and DFRPG for anyone interested in comparisons.

Yeah so far the curve is roughly the same, maybe just a smidge slower for DFRPG.

[dbm]

Originally Posted by kmunoz

Are the daily metrics the same up to this point, for both campaigns? That would tell us a lot more than the overall 10 day total.

From the graph links posted above, after day 1 DF seems to be generating half as many backers as Ogre did. Ogre ended with 5512 backers, so (overly) simple math might suggest DF will get 2750 backers by the end? If the average backing level stays about $90 that's $247k approximately, which is a little higher than the estimate Kicktraq is currently giving.

[GM Joe]

It seems likely that if all goes as usual with these projects, we should at least end up with $10 off shipping. Those are the least-interesting stretch goals to me, but they would help a lot of people out. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we get enough for at least one of the three additional PDFs.

We'll know a lot more in a couple of weeks, I think.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by dbm

From the graph links posted above, after day 1 DF seems to be generating half as many backers as Ogre did.

I wouldn't use the Ogre campaign as a basis for any comparisons. The amount requested was an obvious lowball, and the amount garnered is just out of the league of both the DF and CW Kickstarters (as well as the amount requested). It also had an unusual surge starting at the 21st day of the Kickstarter, and earned even more at the end than it did at the beginning. The whole thing was just bizarre in retrospect, and I'm sure nobody at SJGames wants to repeat the company-wide constipation that Ogre did to production.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by kmunoz

Yeah so far the curve is roughly the same, maybe just a smidge slower for DFRPG.

The falloff after the first day was less. At first, this has to be owing to adding PDF-versions for $35—many of us upped our pledges immediately upon getting that e-mail. The EU shipping change may have eased things around day 7-8, though the Car Wars Kickstarter also had a short upswing on its eighth day. DF began on a Thursday, CW began on a Tuesday; there might be upswings on certain days of the week like Monday, but you'd have to look at many Kickstarters to get that.

Through 10 days, DF was at $79,680, and CW was at $50,159 (49.9% of its final total); that makes DF 159% of CW's total at the same point. At 15 days, CW was at $58,896 (big upswing at day 15). At 20 days, CW was at $66,094. At 25 days, CW was at $76,604 (big upswing day 21). Final, of course, is $100,434; my estimate is just 79680/50159*100434, or $159,544.

[dbm]

Looking at Car Wars, DF is performing more strongly in terms of both backers per day and average pledge at the moment. Looking pretty good at this point - let's hope it stays strong!