International Relations and Implications of US Supersoldier Experiments in 2017

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by Icelander

The primary difference that I see, however, is a risk which Col. Ortiz is educated, trained and experienced at evaluating vs. a risk where he does not have access to enough information to estimate the odds or manage the risks.

That is a big deal, I will admit. If Col. Ortiz is the only notable player in the mix, they may very well end up in Latin America. I don't know that much about Turkey's intelligence capabilities, nor about how much the US has on them: I do know US has been majorly blindsided by some turkish actions in recent years. I do know that Turkey would be my first choice, but we're not talking about me, we're talking about Ortiz. Of course, the art of war is to be where you are not expected. Its worth considering, if only so you can properly reject it.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by ericthered

That is a big deal, I will admit. If Col. Ortiz is the only notable player in the mix, they may very well end up in Latin America. I don't know that much about Turkey's intelligence capabilities, nor about how much the US has on them: I do know US has been majorly blindsided by some turkish actions in recent years. I do know that Turkey would be my first choice, but we're not talking about me, we're talking about Ortiz. Of course, the art of war is to be where you are not expected. Its worth considering, if only so you can properly reject it.

He will be accompanied by several of his men, all veteran US Special Forces, all part of the 7th SFG (A), which means that they are specialised in Latin American and Caribbean cultures and required to be Spanish-speaking. Dari, Pashto, Portuguese, French and several Creoles are plausible third languages for those who have them. Any possible second-in-command for him would be men with expertise in Latin American cultures and languages who have picked up expertise in Afghanistan 'on the job', so to speak.

There is one possible influential figure, Ebbon E. Brown, who is Military Intelligence. He was an enlisted man who volunteered for SFQC when he took part in Project Jade Serenity and what is established of his history indicates that he served several tours in Afghanistan between 2001-2007. During the last tour, he was a SFC, in the process of switching to MI. Nothing is decided about him after that and the switch to MI might have been connected to going OCS, to become an officer of military intelligence. He was born in 1975, so he would have been 32 at that time.

Granted, as a Spanish speaker with a lot of cultural expertise in Latin America, who had additionally picked up Afghan culture, as well as Dari and Pashto well enough to conduct field interviews with captured combatants in Afghanistan, any sane military administation would try to keep Brown in a role where he could use either one of these two vital skill sets. Of course, the Green Machine is not always noted for sanity.

Attaching Brown to some SF unit falling under 7th SFG (A) and then later giving him staff jobs connected with SOCSOUTH would be a way to use both his expert skill sets. I'd think that was most plausible, assuming he wasn't trying to get out of that deployment schedule. SOCOM, JSOC or US Southern Command would at least allow one of his specialist skill sets to be used. Of course, Brown might have been a natural recruit for 'the Activity', too. Or he could have gotten married and accepted a relatively safe analyst position with MI which allowed him to be based in the CONUS for long periods of time.

I suppose Brown could have been assigned to some position where he'd have access to sensitive data on Turkish internal politics and/or he might have left the Army and learned about it as the employee of a private security company or a consulting firm. If the GM likes the idea of Turkey.

Aside from Ortiz's men, there are also dependants and wives. Depending on how many of his men follow Ortiz into exile*, the country which gives him asylum is also going to have to assist their families flee the US, some six to thirty people. Some of the Special Forces operators may have wives with expert level knowledge of foreign relations or domestic politics in certain countries.

It is not that likely, however, and in any case, from what I can tell, soldiers in the 7th SFG (A) who aren't married when they arrive are noted for marrying Latin American girls on their frequent deployements to various countries in the region. So the chances of someone with expert level knowledge of Colombia, El Salvador, Honduras, Haiti or the Dominican Republic would be much greater than the chance of someone knowledgable outside this region.

For reference, here is an article detailing US Special Operations in Latin America between 2007-2014, based on documents released in response to FOIA requests. It gives a pretty good overview of where the 7th SFG (A) has been deployed in Latin America in recent years and where Col. Ortiz would be working with colleagues from Latin American countries as a staff officer with US SOCSOUTH. These would be the countries they are most likely to be expert on and where they have the best contacts. Unfortunately, of course, most of these would never risk their relationship with the US by taking in asylum seekers who are deserters from the US Army and who bring stolen Top Secret data.

*And which specific ones, as the ca 30 people who took part in Project Jade Serenity have already been named and some have been sligthly detailed, but as Assistant GM and Research Assistant, I just come up with descriptions of who they were until 2011. The GM will decide what happened to them after that, what powers, if any, they developed and how many of them are with Ortiz now.

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by Icelander

(SNIP)

Maybe so, but how can anyone gain power legally if he's prevented from running for office?

Well, y'know, as an American I feel safe in saying that a successful revolution is, by definition, a legal means to achieve political power. :)

In the election of December 2015, Maduro's party and its allies got their heads handed to them in the National Assembly, in a vote with a large turnout.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35019111

Three months later, the Maduro-packed Supreme Court declared the entire National Assembly "in contempt," ordered it disbanded, and took over its responsibilities for themselves (effectively giving Maduro one-man rule). A few days later, after massive protests, and condemnations from other Latin American countries (as well as those of us in North America) the court reversed the decision and reinstated the National Assembly, even though its controlled by Maduro's political opponents.

I think it's safe to say that Maduro's grip on power has started to slip, and 2017 could be a very eventful year.

Originally Posted by Icelander

Ok, but who administers presidential elections? I'm guessing it's the central government, in which case it doesn't matter what the public believes about the decree, it still has as much validity as the officials and judges who administered the election and rule on its legality if needed decide.

Basically, if somebody isn't a legal candidate, does the central government have to allow their name to appear on the ballots at all?

(SNIP)

Now, this, I think, is the key observation, and I think the answer to this question could change, drastically, within this next year. If it turns out that the National Assembly winds up effectively in control of the election apparatus, then I'd bet the ban gets lifted and Capriles runs, while Maduro tries to get the elections cancelled, entirely.

If the presidency winds up in control of the election apparatus (which seems problematic, given the outcome of the National Assembly elections, 16 months ago), then I'd bet Capriles declines to run, and (probably rightfully) declares them rigged and wholly illegitimate. At that point, he tries to gin up a popular uprising to see where that might take him, instead.

I will say this. Of all the options listed, thus far, Venezuela definitely offers the greatest opportunity for role-playing drama, even if Bolivia is the more sane choice, for lots of reasons. :)

If Ortiz and his men wanted to take a powder to a place safe for families with children, then Bolivia is the right choice. However, if DNPCs aren't an issue, then Venezuela is probably the more fun option, for the GM, and in the context of the game, the one that offers Ortiz and his men the greatest potential reward.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by tshiggins

Well, y'know, as an American I feel safe in saying that a successful revolution is, by definition, a legal means to achieve political power. :)

It can be effective, moral, necessary or many other things, but breaking the law isn't legal.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

In the election of December 2015, Maduro's party and its allies got their heads handed to them in the National Assembly, in a vote with a large turnout.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35019111

Three months later, the Maduro-packed Supreme Court declared the entire National Assembly "in contempt," ordered it disbanded, and took over its responsibilities for themselves (effectively giving Maduro one-man rule). A few days later, after massive protests, and condemnations from other Latin American countries (as well as those of us in North America) the court reversed the decision and reinstated the National Assembly, even though its controlled by Maduro's political opponents.

I think it's safe to say that Maduro's grip on power has started to slip, and 2017 could be a very eventful year.

That's all very sweet, but as long as the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court strikes down any and all important legislation that the National Assembly makes (which the Western media, at least, is reporting that they have done since January 2016), the continued existence of the National Assembly is just a fig-leaf. It's very like the Sullan reforms in Republican Rome, where the Tribunes of the Plebs were not outlawed or molested in any way, but all significant political authority was removed from the office, turning their College into a powerless debate club.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

Now, this, I think, is the key observation, and I think the answer to this question could change, drastically, within this next year. If it turns out that the National Assembly winds up effectively in control of the election apparatus, then I'd bet the ban gets lifted and Capriles runs, while Maduro tries to get the elections cancelled, entirely.

If the presidency winds up in control of the election apparatus (which seems problematic, given the outcome of the National Assembly elections, 16 months ago), then I'd bet Capriles declines to run, and (probably rightfully) declares them rigged and wholly illegitimate. At that point, he tries to gin up a popular uprising to see where that might take him, instead.

I confess that I have no idea which Venezuelan body has control over elections.

I do know, however, that in the event of any dispute over the legalities of the election or its administration, the final decision is in the hands of... the Supreme Court. Controlled by the Maduro regime and, according to the opposition, filled with judges who tried to perform an actual coup two weeks ago in Maduro's favour.

When the executive controls the judiciary, I don't see the legislative mattering all that much. They can pass any law they like, the final decision on whether the law is a law at all will still rest with the Supreme Court and any enforcement has to be done by the executive.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

I will say this. Of all the options listed, thus far, Venezuela definitely offers the greatest opportunity for role-playing drama, even if Bolivia is the more sane choice, for lots of reasons. :)

If Ortiz and his men wanted to take a powder to a place safe for families with children, then Bolivia is the right choice. However, if DNPCs aren't an issue, then Venezuela is probably the more fun option, for the GM, and in the context of the game, the one that offers Ortiz and his men the greatest potential reward.

Well, Ortiz isn't fleeing with any children, but any of the other ca 20 possible deserters might have some. Of course, the GM hasn't decided how many of the former test subjects will be going with Ortiz, but I'd figure that six to eight would be a reasonable lower bound, with 10-12 being a likely number. Going by the odds, that means something like 10-35 non-combatant dependants. Ortiz might be looking for just a safe haven for these men and their families, but he might also be looking for something more. I've got to do analysis for both, so the GM can decide based on that.

I think that some of the smaller countries would also have a lot of potential, assuming Ortiz is going to be involved in politics, for example because he wants to set up a safe haven for supers and realises that this means he has to improve the security situation of his adopted home. Ortiz's School of the Americas for Gifted Youngsters?

Going big, Colombia would also have plenty of challenges and roleplaying opportunties, but I'm afraid that it would be implausible for them to risk their special relationship with the US military. Can anybody weigh in on that? I'm sure the GM would like to have the option of Columbia, but only if there is a plausible way that this can be justified.

How about Peru? They are able to pursue an independent foreign policy, supporting the Russian position in Syria, for example. Might they accept asylum-seekers when the US will clearly view that as an unfriendly act?

I understand Honduras's current Presidente will be running for another term, despite the Constitution not allowing this. I don't know if that's a good thing or bad, but I'm sure Ortiz will know people with strong opinions on it and maybe he feels that the level of support he'd need from his host country is high enough that he'd never get it from anybody who didn't have to rely on him and his men for their position. Whether Honduras, even under a new president, would be prepared to risk angering the US by offering asylum, however, is another question.

How about some of those smaller countries? Is there any chance that they'd be willing to risk angering the US?

Could they even do this, technically, militarily and politically?

Belize?

Dominican Republic?

Panama?

Guyana?

Jamaica?

Paraguyay?

Another possibility is for Ortiz to have made his deal with a smaller ALBA country, because no US ally would be willing to take him in, despite knowing that any technology that comes from the research would probably eventually find its way to the rest of the ALBA countries and maybe even make them a real power bloc. Maybe he's selling his soul to the least bad 'devil' he can find, because it's the only way he could guarantee the safety of the men under his command and their families.

I've got to keep in mind that maybe having superpowers have radically altered Ortiz and/or his value system has changed over time. And the GM could want him to have a plan that our characters are likely to want to stop, not join. Better consider many types of plans, both 'good' and 'bad', as well as both viable and not viable. He could have a very morally admirable plan, for example, but one based on a delusion caused by the changes in him, such as insane overconfidence or paranoia, and thus something we can see is likely to end in horrible disaster.

Or not. Maybe we're meant to join him. Or the GM will be really nice and listen to requests, so he'll make Ortiz's plan theoretically practical, morally sound from a certain point of view and maybe even superior to what Onyx Rain wants to do... depending on a lot of ifs and buts, and we don't have enough data to even know the real stakes and whether Onyx Rain is being paranoid and evil or just reasonably ruthless because the risks really are that terrible.

Not to mention that whatever our personal feelings, our characters may not be able to join him, as they have loved ones in the US that are effectively hostages to Onyx Rain if we disobey. Not to mention the tracking devices implanted in us, the trained killers following us who are simply waiting for an order to take us out and, for all we know, the implanted bombs we might be forced to carry before leaving on our next mission.

Man, having superpowers in a world where reality doesn't bend around you to avoid all the negative stuff, like politics and bureaucracy, really sucks!

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by Icelander

It can be effective, moral, necessary or many other things, but breaking the law isn't legal.

Okay, I'll concede the point, and edit my statement to read, "...as an American I feel safe in saying that a successful revolution is, by definition, a valid means to achieve political power." :)

Originally Posted by Icelander

That's all very sweet, but as long as the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court strikes down any and all important legislation that the National Assembly makes (which the Western media, at least, is reporting that they have done since January 2016), the continued existence of the National Assembly is just a fig-leaf. It's very like the Sullan reforms in Republican Rome, where the Tribunes of the Plebs were not outlawed or molested in any way, but all significant political authority was removed from the office, turning their College into a powerless debate club.

(SNIP)

At this point, it's down to the question of, "Who do the people choose to obey?" The faction most of the people decide is legitimate, through their actions, will have the legitimacy. Right now, I think Venezuela is pretty badly divided, and both sides are trying to figure the best move to break the deadlock.

Originally Posted by Icelander

I confess that I have no idea which Venezuelan body has control over elections.

I don't, either, and I'm betting neither do many Venezuelans. It wouldn't surprise me to find there aren't going to be any elections, for awhile.

I do know, however, that in the event of any dispute over the legalities of the election or its administration, the final decision is in the hands of... the Supreme Court. Controlled by the Maduro regime and, according to the opposition, filled with judges who tried to perform an actual coup two weeks ago in Maduro's favour.

When the executive controls the judiciary, I don't see the legislative mattering all that much. They can pass any law they like, the final decision on whether the law is a law at all will still rest with the Supreme Court and any enforcement has to be done by the executive.

(SNIP)
[/QUOTE]

At that point, it may come down to who, exactly, the judges wind up being. If the existing Maduro supporters wind up "encouraged" to resign "for the good of the nation" (or just get shot), and a new batch gets in there, then Maduro has already lost.

Originally Posted by Icelander

Man, having superpowers in a world where reality doesn't bend around you to avoid all the negative stuff, like politics and bureaucracy, really sucks!

That's a hard lesson for the players in my Facets campaign, too, even though we're talking mages instead of superheroes. :)

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by tshiggins

At this point, it's down to the question of, "Who do the people choose to obey?" The faction most of the people decide is legitimate, through their actions, will have the legitimacy. Right now, I think Venezuela is pretty badly divided, and both sides are trying to figure the best move to break the deadlock.

To me, at least, it doesn't look like a deadlock. Maduro already controls everything he needs to control. It's his opponents who have to do something to remove him, if they want him gone. He just has to wait as his opponents lose power, because they don't control the machinery of government, the media or have access to all the sources of funds he has.

I'll grant that his lack of popular support is probably personally painful to him, but as long as he continues to neutralise every move any opposition leaders make, he seems pretty safe. He probably fixed the result of the last election, but as the Supreme Court belongs to him, the result of the judicial review was that all was super legal. And to ensure that the Supreme Court would always belong to him, he stuffed it full of new justices. And the Supreme Court, surprise, also said that was super legal.

When the National Assembly, now controlled by his opponents, want to review the status of justices or remove those who have used their power in ways that the National Assembly considers unconstitutional, surprisingly, the Supreme Court strikes down their attempts to do so.

Controlling the Supreme Court means that you can't act illegally and everything that your opponents do is extra illegal. Which is why one of the three opposition candidates in the presidential election 2018 is already in prison and I'm not optimistic about the chances of the other two actually managing to run, at least in any meaningful way. They certainly won't be able to campaign.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

I don't, either, and I'm betting neither do many Venezuelans. It wouldn't surprise me to find there aren't going to be any elections, for awhile.

The 2018 elections already scheduled will take place unless something happens to cancel them. As Maduro seems to have neutralised two of the three opposition candidates who are running (one has been jailed, the other banned from politics), I doubt he fears the outcome.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

At that point, it may come down to who, exactly, the judges wind up being. If the existing Maduro supporters wind up "encouraged" to resign "for the good of the nation" (or just get shot), and a new batch gets in there, then Maduro has already lost.

Way more than half of the judges were appointed by the Chavez and Maduro regimes. The only way for the Supreme Court not to be pro-Maduro is to remove most of them.

Which is a coup, no matter how justified it may be, in light of the way these judges were appointed, especially the last 13 of them (appointed en masse by the departing pro-Maduro National Assembly in December 2015, alongside an attempt to set up a new People's Assembly).

And considering that these judges are sitting in the stronghold of the central government, which is no doubt well aware that control of the Supreme Court is the major source of its continuing power, it would be a pretty hard thing to accomplish without a lot of collateral damage, up to and including massacres in the streets.

And while a Supreme Court where a third of the judges were appointed in a dodgy, but legal way will still have some legitimacy, especially internationally (where people will read 'The Supreme Court ruled the election legal', but probably not have any idea that one party just packed it full of new justices from their party), if you kill the last Supreme Court so you can create your own, I think you'll have major troubles with international legitimacy.

Basically, the Supreme Court is like the Golden Snitch of modern Game of Thrones..., uh, that metaphor is crazy geekish. And mixed. Anyway, if you capture it, you usually win the game, unless you screwed up really badly otherwise. But you have to capture the actual Golden Snitch/Supreme Court. It's no good just painting a ball gold... eh, killing all the justices and appointing your own.

You know what I mean.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

That's a hard lesson for the players in my Facets campaign, too, even though we're talking mages instead of superheroes. :)

Semantics. Dr. Anderson is a Wizard in everything but name.

[ericthered]

Guyanna isn't a safe choice. The US could send someone there and the local populace would be very unlikely to object, let alone the government. 1/3rd of all Guyanese live in New York. Not the US, New York. And a good portion more are waiting for Visas to the US, and if you held a referendum to become a US territory, it would probably pass (and it does get mentioned occasionally in Guyanese politics). They also don't have the resources to protect anyone even if they wanted to.

Now, if you're objective is to hide out in the jungle, it might work. But that's not the problem we're discussing.

[Icelander]

I am reliably informed by one who is in a position to know, i.e. the GM of the game, that Col. Ortiz is looking for a base of operations to carry out further plans, not just a hideout.

He may even consider entering a country illegally, if he could work with a local faction which could hide him somewhere, as he worked on his eventual plans. To that end, he may make a temporary allegiance with people with whom he does not share all or even many political views, i.e. either left-wing or reactionary guerillas or political factions considering similar means.

I have not been informed of the end game, but it apparently requires that Col. Ortiz obtain an allegiance with some polity powerful enough to not only shield him and his men from the US and any other foes, but also capable of aiding him with his eventual plans.

This means that turning up as a penniless asylum seeker is probably not in the cards. Col. Ortiz might have to ally with someone who'd otherwise go out of power and/or is seeking power without currently having enough of it, and by making himself indispensible, secure funding for whatever his goal is.

Until told otherwise, I'll be assuming that his goal might be either to become our universe's version of Erik Lensherr/Magneto and found the 'Brotherhood of Mutants' or to become our Professor Xavier, and found Xavier's School for Gifted Youngsters. In either case, he'd need some form of Underground Railroad to help superpowered people persecuted by governments or unethically exploited by corporations or countries to flee to his prepared safe haven.

This, of course, makes helping to remove Maduro from power in Venezuela and installing his own prefered candidate there much more attractive than if he was just looking for a safe hideout. It also makes all nation states where it's possible that Col. Ortiz could pick sides in a coup or short and sharp civil war, installing his own preferred or even puppet ruler, more likely than otherwise, especially if this is an Evil Mutant kind of plan.

He may have an initial hideout in mind, where he'll go illegally, perhaps with the assistance of a criminal organisation* that got his men false papers and travelling cash, in exchange for unknown concessions and/or valuable secrets. This hideout would then become his temporary base, until he could secure a position in a nation state with a friendly ruler (which he might have to make a ruler, of course).

Any suggestions for good places to hide out and non-state actors he might rely on for support in the first stages? I thought maybe some faction of (hopefully soon to be ex-) guerillas in Colombia might agree to hide him within their extensive jungle territories and he could use such a hideout to train a force of expatriates from the country where he might be intervening in politics.** Any other options that sound plausible?

*Like the Sinaloa cartel, as we know in game that Col. Ortiz met with Raul Vargas, but we don't know what they discussed.
**Like, say, Venezuela...

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by tshiggins

As for Bolivia, that may offer some potential. The country was long divided between a majority indigenous population and a minority criollo (Spanish descendants) group which controlled most of the economy. That started to change in the late 20th Century, following decades of violent conflict.

In 2005, socialist Evo Morales won election as president with an absolute majority of the votes in Bolivia -- which was unprecedented -- and his Movement for Socialism won a two-third majority in the both houses of the Bolivian National Congress. He immediately raised taxes on Bolivian petroleum companies (Bolivia is very rich in mineral wealth, of all sorts) and began to focus on social spending programs primarily geared toward helping the indigenous majority.

He also talks a lot about support for socialist ideology, and has voiced considerable criticism of classical liberalism, but his actual policies have actually followed a center-left approach to a mixed-economy capitalism with a strong social safety net. As such, the leftists in Bolivia criticize him for betraying the revolution, even though he strongly supports other leftist organizations throughout Latin America. Meanwhile, the traditional laissez-faire capitalists who formerly ran the country hate him for what they call his policies of wealth redistribution.

On top of all that, his family were poor farmers who made ends meet by growing coca, and Morales continues to advocate for the broad legalization of coca agriculture. The fact that he doesn't crack down on production of coca means many accuse Morales of tacitly supporting the cocaine trade as a way for poor indio farmers to make a decent living.

Any overt move by the United States to depose Morales would likely blow up in their faces, because he is that popular with the majority of Bolivians. However, anyone who owns a mine or an oil field in Bolivia has spent many sleepless nights since his election, worrying that he might do to Bolivia what Hugo Chavez did to Venezuela (even though Morales' policies are far more moderate than his rhetoric).

Indulging in speculation here, but if Evo Morales* decided to take in 6-20 deserters from US Special Forces and their 10-30 dependants, what would his motives be?

Is it plausible that Bolivia, under Morales's administration**, would wish to set up a research program to reverse engineer the supersoldier treatments from the former Project Jade Serenity test subjects?

Do they have the capability?***

Third, I'm wondering if Evo Morales would have any desire to let former test subjects from Project Jade Serenity into Bolivia. After all, most of them seem to be no longer genetically identical to baseline humans. Their descendants might not be, either. And there is actually some evidence that through some unknown means, the altered biochemistry, 'infection' or whatever else one ought to call it can spread to other organisms, human and non-human.

To take an analogy that might have some application to Morales' views, there is precisely zero evidence that what are termed Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) have health hazards beyond those of the ordinary genetically-modified organisms which constitute the majority of human diets. In fact, well over a billion human beings that would have died in predicted famines are alive today because of the more efficient acriculture introduced by the Green Revolution.

Despite this complete lack of evidence, many groups, often using religious or pseudo-scientific vocabulary, have spread fears of GMOs. This is almost comical in the First World, but obviously ends up killing a lot of people in less affluent areas. Methods of killing can be EU regulations that ban imports from poor countries that use the most effective acricultural methods they can, and thereby perpetuate poverty there, or even worse, the co-option of local governments to pseudo-scientific ways of thought, thus condemning countries in the midst of famine to using ineffective acricultural methods almost a century out of date, lowering crop yields and killing thousands.

Evo Morales has imposed a complete ban on importing, selling or using GMOs in Bolivia, justifying it with quasi-religious appeals to Mother Earth, as well as pseudo-scientific non-sense such as genetically-modified chicken causing effeminate behaviour**** in men.

Would he be prepared to consider allowing Project Jade Serenity test subjects entry into the country, when there is actual evidence that reasonably could be interpreted to say that there is a risk to the Bolivian ecology from their presence? Not to mention the Bolivian people, as no one has yet managed to discover the mechanism by which the condition can spread.

*Well, I'm guessing some intelligence, military and security officials would do most of the negotiating and deciding, but at some point, the administration would have to commit to supporting it if Col. Ortiz were to be able to rely on anything they said.
**As well as under a hypothetical MAS successor, if Morales should fail to modify the Constitution in order to allow him yet another term starting in 2020.
***Theoretically, most any nation state does, of course. But the poorer the nation and further away from cutting-edge medical research and biochemistry their existing infrastructure is, the comparatively larger the investment is for that nation. Purely for reasons of size and overall GDP, what would be a fairly minor decision that could be covered by the budget of a single organisation in China, Russia or the US, would be a major political decision allocating a significant fraction of research and grant money for an economy the size of Iceland, for example.
****By which he almost certainly meant homosexuality, though it's possible that he meant to blame the existence of transgender men on GMOs.

[Icelander]

I love the Internet. Just last week, it gives me a report of a married civilian employee of the 7th SFG, who from 2012 was infamous for the number of her lovers, married and unmarried, but most of them very senior NCOs, Warrant Officers or officers.

Some of her lovers are named. Others are not, but noted as having moved on to higher ranks, e.g. Colonels, Majors and Sergeant-Majors!

Now, i.e. at the exact time Col. Ortiz was planning his mass desertion, composed exclusively of former or current 7th SFG men of E-7, E-8, E-9 and Warrant officer rank, as well as a Major and maybe a Captain, men of these ranks were being investigated and some of them flat-out threatened that unless they saved her job (beyond their powers once the case snowballed), she would take them down with her and 'bring down the entire Red Empire' (7th SFG nickname).

While I don't believe that this motivated Col. Ortiz directly, I'll be damned if it won't be of use in firming up the motivations of some of those who follow him more reluctantly.