The Iron Cross

[Michele]

Originally Posted by The Colonel

to be honest, several of the French light tanks - such as the R35 and H35 seem to have been fairly comparable to the T35, although better armoured, slightly less well armed and with the traditional French error of the one-man turret.

Sure. Those are light tanks, however, the SOMUA weighed almost 20 tons, that is nearly twice as much as a Pz35(t).

I seem to recall the Germans had a small number (?30-40?) of early model Panzer IIIs in service by 1938...

Yes, those of the A, B, C and D pre-series Ausführungen, and the total is about that.

[Michele]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

That France didn’t outright annex and expel was, in part, based on the fact that Germany might be able to quickly rearm, which it was able to do in the Fifties, and that the worn-down French Army, not the Red Army that by that time occupied Eastern Europe, would have been doing any expelling.

Or maybe France made different decisions? As to the "worn-out" French army, do you really think it would have had many problems in expelling a disarmed civilian population in which the majority of the people were women, children and old men?

France would have needed the support of the Americans who let it occupy the Saar again in the first place, which it wasn’t getting even after the long war.

Sure, it was a decision shared by the Western allies. Did the Germans have a say in that? No.

A short WW2 leading to a German defeat would have made these scenarios less likely, not more, as Germany would not have sustained massive bombing to most of its cities and would have had much more of its industrial and military might still intact.

I’m not going to agree. Germany was able to rearm fast ten years after the war with half of it under Soviet occupation and all of it subjected to a massive bombing campaign. Something like this is always in the mind of military planners.

Always? As in, in 1919? People at Versailles didn't think, we can't take the Sudeten and give them to Czechoslovakia, because the Germans are going to rearm. What about 1872? Did the Germans decision-makers think, we can't take Alsace-Lorraine, because the French are going to get their revanche?

Yes, I know, by the end of WWII decision-makers did not want minorities within their borders, whence the expulsions. That did not stop them from doing annexations, though. The French retook once more Alsace-Lorraine, and did not worry about the future German rearmament. Hungary lost Transylvania once again. Etc.

In short, you are giving much too foresight to the Polish decision-makers. Which we know from their track record probably had less than average foresight, and in this situation would be convinced that they were on a roll and be affected by victory disease.

its military would have been almost as battered as the Wehrmacht.

I think you are overstimating the possibilities of a disarmed, defeated civilian population against, not a battered army, but even just the police of a state that takes control of their territory. Sure, there might be some modest guerrilla for some time, maybe sporadic violence for some time more.

[adm]

Originally Posted by Michele

If the assumption here is that Germany is quickly and utterly defeated, ...

My assumption is that when Hitler's attempt to take the Sudetenland by diplomacy fails, he hits the Czechs hard and fast, in the WW I Eastern Front sense of hard and fast. A lot of the terrain in Czechoslovakia is not as favorable to Blitzkrieg as Poland and France. If the Czechs do as well as I think they can, given the limited amount of German armor, and a less dominate Luftwaffe* they will limit the German advance***. Poland moves on Silesia, to pin German forces between them and the Czechs, and East Prussia, for the land they intend to keep. I think that the OKW will manage to pull units out of Silesia with lighter than hoped for loses (by the Little Entente). At this point I suspect that Hitler will be removed, and the new government will ask for a cease fire and terms. France will say "Sure! Sounds great". The Czechs will push any remaining units out of their territory, and agree. Poland will ignore them until East Prussia falls, and then agree. While I would expect the Germans to try and move into Poland, I don't think they have enough ready troops, or, more importantly enough reserves of equipment and ammunition.

* While the Luftwaffe had enough modern bombers, their fighters were not yet dominate, as they would be in 1940. The Bf109 of 1938** had a two bladed fixed pitched propeller, two machine guns, and aircrew that had not been given the training of the Spanish Civil War. While still superior to opposing aircraft, they were not be as effective as they would later be.

** The Bf109 of 1940 had three bladed variable pitch propellers, two machine guns, two to three canons, depending on sub type, and aircrews that developed modern fighter tactics in Spain. The more powerful engines helped a lot as well.

***Not as well known now, German field commanders got a lot of real world experience in Spain as well.

Originally Posted by Michele

The question is rather whether the League of Nations, after the defeat of Germany, agrees the right solution is a Polish mandate over East Prussia. You are right that most other mandates were colonial in essence. But then again, even after WWII, with an entirely different take on issues like self-determination and nationalities, the Saar was again a French Protectorate - all the way to 1956!
I think that a triumphant Poland might put the LoN in front of a fait accompli. That's what they did with the Vilnius region, after all. There's Polish troops all over East Prussia, and nobody is going to push them out in the short term. Acknowledging a mandate or protectorate is better than letting the Poles proceed to an unrecognized, but actual, annexation.

Essentially my thoughts. Italy had already shown in Ethiopia that once you occupied land, the League was not going to throw you off of it.

[adm]

I missed the post war German reaction above.

The Germans will not be happy about losing East Prussia, but I suspect that they will spend a fair amount of their post war time removing those NAZIs not smart enough to disavow the poor choices of the old NAZI leadership. They will also be spending time trying to not lose everything they had rebuilt post WW I.

Once Germany gets far enough from this war to start planning the next one, I suspect that the Polish occupation will cause a backlash to Poland keeping East Prussia, especially if Poland does come to dominate Czechoslovakia and her other smaller neighbors. I also suspect that Germany will be ready to listen to Stalin, if they believe his promise that he will help them get all of Prussia back. The next war will be a mess.