08-03-2018, 07:50 PM | #31 |
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
One idea I've had is that programming ability does not increase at the same speed as device capacity. Also, the bigger and more complicated your program needs to be the longer and harder it is to get the bugs out. AI would be hardest of all of course.
The consequences of this might be that even though people gained 2 levels of complexity between TLs 9 and 10 that msotly means they moved to computers 2 levels smaller to run their reliable TL9 programs. If they did go for the extra levels it was so they could run 100x as many of those programs. The result of the difficulty of AI debugging might actually be that AIs have shorter lives than humans before their programs get corrupted and have fatal crashes. This could be a problem even with lower Complexity and IQ AIs.
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Fred Brackin |
08-03-2018, 09:22 PM | #32 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
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I personally think (though I wouldn't go so far as to say I believe) that's not the case, but it does mean that 1 is a perfectly valid solution to the Drake Equation.
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RyanW - Actually one normal sized guy in three tiny trenchcoats. |
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08-03-2018, 10:10 PM | #33 |
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Forest Grove, Beaverton, Oregon
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
In four and a half billion years, this planet produced a single technological species. So regardless of how common complex planetary life is, intelligent life is orders of magnitude rarer.
And we still have no idea what conditions are truly required for life to start in the first place. Anything other than saying that it is possible is pure guesswork, and not science.
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08-03-2018, 10:46 PM | #34 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
AI devolution could also be the result of trying to copy emergent AI (or any attempt to digitally copy biological intelligence in the form of ghosts). Copying emergent AI (or creating ghosts) would rapidly become illegal if they accumulated -5 CP of mental disadvantages every week as their coding devolved. I imagine that copying emergent AI (or creating ghosts) would become the work of mad scientists as no corporation would think it worth the investment after the first few public disasters.
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08-04-2018, 01:22 AM | #35 |
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
In discussions like these, it seems to me that the impact of Ultra-Tech AIs gets way too much focus.
We already have expert systems which can perform well for a wide range of tasks (and in many cases outperform even the most skilled humans). With the hardware improvements assumed in UT, as well as decades or even centuries of further software development, the capabilities of such expert systems would be massivly increased. For example, why look at UT AIs for things like pilot and gunner performance in space combat? There are already computer programs which perform really well in simulated atmospheric dogfighting (and space combat is in many respects a simpler problem than that). Expert systems would surely be used for far more complicated tasks than those. Last edited by Andreas; 08-04-2018 at 05:36 AM. |
08-04-2018, 01:52 AM | #36 |
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Forest Grove, Beaverton, Oregon
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
The problem isn't whether there's any sensible reason for something that's within the realm of possibility. It's that as long as it's something that someone really really wants, it will get created eventually.
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08-04-2018, 05:57 AM | #37 | |
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Kyïv, Ukraine
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
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* == Google seems to be terrible at flexion in languages, but I suppose it's understandable given the English starting point. |
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08-04-2018, 08:09 AM | #38 | |
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
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But, once again, humanity is at more risk from the non-volitional AIs because the truth is, there aren't all that many jobs that actually call for creativity and rebelliousness. For the others an IQ 10+ AI that will never get out of line is better than a human. |
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08-04-2018, 09:18 AM | #39 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
Which generally means one of three things occur. First, the rich replace the non-rich with non-volitional AI until the entire economy collapses because there are insufficient consumers left. Second, the rich replace the non-rich with non-volitional AI until the non-rich rebel and restructure society to avoid non-volitional AI except in the most dangerous jobs. Third, the rich replace the noj-rich with non-volitional AI until the non-rich rebel and restructure society to give the unemployed a basic wage that allows them to consume enough to support the economy. The first is the trajectory of our current society, the second is the more likely alternative, and the third is the less likely alternative.
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08-04-2018, 09:43 AM | #40 | |
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Re: Keeping humans relevant in the shadow of TL10 AI.
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Rather, what is necessary for an economy not to collapse is obviously a minimum level of production. Last edited by Andreas; 08-04-2018 at 09:50 AM. |
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