06-26-2022, 12:54 PM | #11 |
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
I was thinking temporarily drier, until ocean evaporation from slowly warming ocean catches up to evaporation from quickly warming land.
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06-26-2022, 01:02 PM | #12 | |
Join Date: Dec 2012
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
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Warning, I have the Distractible and Imaginative quirks in real life. "The more corrupt a government, the more it legislates." -- Tacitus Five Earths, All in a Row. Updated 12/17/2022: Apocrypha: Bridges out of Time, Part I has been posted. |
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06-26-2022, 01:15 PM | #13 |
Join Date: Dec 2020
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
Well it would be a nightmare to live in this times, thatīsure.
First only a few developed nations have own sources for fuel in form of oil and natural gas, the whole biogas is just a scam, needing nearly as much energy as it produces and needs fertilizer. Fertilizer is another problem there are only 3 big natural depots of phosphates. Dire needed to keep people fed. ammonia can be made given energy, phospates not. Their are not many nations who can fed there own folks, and have enough land for agriculture and the needed climate. Most nations are well over their biolagical carrying capacity. All this would result in a big migration wave which let look a locust swarm cute. You can expect the target nations act accordingly. Also we will have a rising ocean level, the worlds biggest cities, most productive farmland, and industrial areas are in this regions, resulting in a heavy prodicutio loss in food and goods and many millions of refugees on top of this. Theoretically we have all the tech and knowledge to compensate the lack of fuels, if everybody cooperates. Basically we would need a world gouvernment dealing with the situation and making binding decisions for all. But human nature isnīt like this. Most developed nations have used the waterpower option to the fullest and or most dams are pretty ol and silted. Solar power and wind can make up for the loss of other energy sources, but canīt be stored in quantity,also most nations have a heating problem. Nuclear power will be a last ditch try, but given that most nations donīt have resources and the needed tech level and construction time, itīs more likely we will have in less delopped nations some Fukushimas, while the modern nations can use them without problems, if they have enough own uran. By the way rare earth and other highly valued resources arenīt so seldom most nations have resources of them, itīs just the standard producer was dirt cheap and therefore nobody developed his own mining and refining industry, same goes for silicium. Really important industry metall like iron, copper and alloy are fairly widespread. We can expect a all against all warfare and skirmishes to get the last table scraps of the golden age. Most regions will be stripped clean of anything including the local fora and fauna, Remember a fisher using dynamite knows he will destroy his existence, but he will eat now, tomorrow is another day. After the dust is settled the still standing nations, will sieve through the leftovers and build a new society. I will not set a dime for any existing nation how and if it can survive the situation. Any nation who wantīs to survive has to have natural fuels, good and enough land to feed itīs people including the needed fertilizers, other natural resources, well trained cooperating citizens, and BIG natural borders or the locusts will devour them. Last edited by Willy; 06-26-2022 at 01:25 PM. Reason: added text |
06-26-2022, 01:15 PM | #14 | |
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Brazil
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
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Surface evaporation would increase very fast as the surface of the oceans heat up relatively fast. It's the depts that would take centuries of warm in the surface to be felt. |
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06-26-2022, 01:21 PM | #15 |
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chagrin Falls
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
Perhaps looking at it through a more localized (hyper-localized) lens might help. Don't think of The US, but rather Boulder, CO. Or think about Appalachia. Or perhaps the Mississippi delta. It isn't crazy to think that some form of regional stability could form in any of those (or many other) locations. Those nation states are MUCH smaller than the US, but any collection of them that has reached stability could feasibly begin working together to mutual benefit.
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06-26-2022, 01:43 PM | #16 | ||||||||
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Brazil
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
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Besides, governments cant fix any problems, governments ARE THE PROBLEM. You shouldnt be so eager to surrender full control to a bunch of "enlightned" angels sent by heaven to rule over us poor mortals with iron fist. Such a "world government" would simply be an eternal 1984 tyranny. I find it funny how the same people that dont trust politicians and bureocrats expect that the almighty Government solve their problems. Quote:
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And the more advanced we become, the more complex the system is, thus the more susceptible to disturbances. Quote:
China and Russia wont survive past 2030 - and that's if nothing else happens (but just you wait until next year) |
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06-26-2022, 02:27 PM | #17 |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
While I'm not anti-nuclear, at the moment it's a lot cheaper to build extra wind or solar than to build extra nuclear, and for things like nitrogen fixing, without fossil fuels, it's almost certainly cheaper to just use a crop rotation that will do the fixation for you.
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06-26-2022, 02:38 PM | #18 | |
Join Date: Dec 2020
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
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So we will have a problem with feeding the world population. Not to mention you have to transport either food or fertilizer from A to B. Sorry again whole south america including mexico would be on the way to US /Canada because they would still be able to fed their population, and thanks to natural oil and gas can transport the food to them. You forgot just south america and india in you calculations. not many nations are actually able to fed their people, without heavy imports. India and china alone have over 2 billion people, thankfully far away from my living place. Africa and middle east will still be a problem for central europe. I could literally drown you in facts about the situation, but want to avoid a political discussion. Just let me say, research of potential crisis point in the world political, or naturally is a hobby of mine for at least a quarter of a century. Sadly Iīm much more often right than wrong. Alone the whole distribution of resources and why some deposits are just that and not resources would be too much for this forum. Let us for the sake of a fruitful discussion about a scenario for GURPS take the warnings of The Limits of Growth and the following studies by Meadows and Randall as a given fact. Last edited by Willy; 06-26-2022 at 02:44 PM. Reason: added text |
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06-26-2022, 02:46 PM | #19 | |||
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
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Not to mention that using up enough coal to take the [proven] reserve (i.e. exploitable even at current prices) zero would multiply the amount of atmospheric CO2 enough to increase the temperature by about 20C. That's beyond catastrophic. Using up the not-yet-proven and known-but-higher-cost reserves too presumably sterilizes the planet. Quote:
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No communications technologies are significant energy consumers really, the stuff that gets hit by a high energy costs are transportation (particularly air and automobile uses), space heating (and to a more limited extent cooling) and water heating. Even industrial machinery and process heat are better off, being smaller draws (well OK, maybe [comparable] draws to water heating) and producing enough added value to pay higher prices more easily.
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06-26-2022, 03:04 PM | #20 |
Stick in the Mud
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Rural Utah
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Re: Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century
<Moderator>
A reminder to keep things civil, and to keep anything bordering on real world politics off these boards. Thank you. </Moderator>
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