New Reality Seeds

[AlexanderHowl]

In Trinity-3, someone introduced the idea of nuclear weapons to the Great Powers in 1900, including simple designs for processing nuclear materials and constructing nuclear weapons, before Einstein developed the theory that would eventually explain the mechanisms behind nuclear weapons. Homeline and Centrum are very interested in finding the guilty party, it was a stable Q6 echo that jumped to Q7, and has found evidence of half dozen similar plots over the last twenty years.

It is now 1920, and Japan is the most powerful of the remaining powers, as Germany used its nuclear weapons against closer targets. The East Coast of the USA is a nuclear wasteland, as is the majority of Europe, and the former colonies have gained their independence without any major conflicts. The British Royal Family is now the Canadian Royal Family, as Britain was burned to ashes, and the Tsarina of Russia rules from Vladivostok because European Russia burned. The remaining participants in WWI are in even worse shape.

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by malloyd

I don't know about that. It seems *likely*, but they'd been avoiding one for about a century without a particularly exceptional number of great statesmen despite some really pretty major changes and equally serious looking crises - the unification of Italy, the rise of Prussia, the scramble for Africa, the decline and fall of the Qing, the collapse of the Spanish Empire. Maybe history could have stumbled on with the same sorts of minor wars they'd been having through the Ottoman retreat from the Balkans too, without necessarily spilling over into a fight involving everybody everywhere.

A timeline that scrapes through the 20th century without a World War got lucky, but maybe not *implausibly* lucky.

They'd been avoiding a general war, not minor wars, and not wars between great powers. The Franco-Prussian War was quick, not minor. The Crimea also belongs to this period. And that during the century you talk about had plenty of great statesmen: Metternich, Bismark, the Four Founders of Italy, Gladstone, and Disraeli. They weren't nice people and they didn't leave the legacies the modern world would have liked, but they were very good at what they did, they ran tight ships, and when they got into a war, they made good and sure it was a war they wanted.

[fchase8]

Originally Posted by Mysterious Dark Lord v3.2

Inevitable. The Archduke, for all his family connections and fancy title, was a minor player of little significance. Franz-Ferdinand's assassination wasn't the reason, it was the excuse.

The treaty networks had been in place for years. The Imperial Powers were all stable, with no room for further expansion unless another empire fell. All it needed was a nudge.

The Archduke's survival would delay the war for a short time until another excuse popped up (yes, probably in the Balkans).

It would seem like war would be more likely than peace, given that all it would take would be one spark.

But how possible could no war be? Possible enough that it wouldn't stand out, or so impossible that it would seem like someone was manipulating the timeline?



The timelines that are accessible in Infinite Worlds seem to usually be ones that have a definite divergence from Homeline. A world where The Great War started in 1915, not 1914, wouldn't seem to be one that Infinity would find, unless it started to diverge from Homeline history (Germany wins, or something more subtle like Adolf Hitler is killed during the war).

There are close parallels, but those only seem to come up in passing. And even then, the difference usually remains active, as opposed to just being subsumed by history.

Originally Posted by Mysterious Dark Lord v3.2

All likely, with the Ottoman collapse being the most likely (the "Sick Old Man of Europe" was everyone's favorite theoretical target.). Tsarist Russia without the war could have lasted another generation before self-destructing.

Giving another decade for tech development might make a more enrgetic war. If Little Willie of Germany will let it wait that long. Or the growing expansionist factions everywhere don't gain power.

Ottoman Empire could be a good war-starter. Some sort of Russian grab for Constantinople could combine the two wobbly empires, and draw in others.

Maybe the best way to avoid WWI isn't to save Archduke Franz Ferdinand; it's to kill Kaiser Wilhelm (though I don't know who his successor would be).



Corresponding question: It's 1914 on a Echo. Does Infinity try to stop the Archduke's assassination?

On a purely moral level, averting the killing of WWI is a good thing. But that would extend empires, and forestall the growth of social democracy.

Moreover, even if the Archduke is saved, the I-Cops would have their hands full trying to stop every other spark - and wouldn't have the forewarning like they did with Franz Ferdinand.



Maybe Infinity would just try to figure out what Centrum would do, and do the opposite.

Of course, that begs the question: It's 1914 on a Echo. Does Interworld try to stop the Archduke's assassination?

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

In Trinity-3, someone introduced the idea of nuclear weapons to the Great Powers in 1900, including simple designs for processing nuclear materials and constructing nuclear weapons, before Einstein developed the theory that would eventually explain the mechanisms behind nuclear weapons. Homeline and Centrum are very interested in finding the guilty party, it was a stable Q6 echo that jumped to Q7, and has found evidence of half dozen similar plots over the last twenty years.

It is now 1920, and Japan is the most powerful of the remaining powers, as Germany used its nuclear weapons against closer targets. The East Coast of the USA is a nuclear wasteland, as is the majority of Europe, a

The east coast of the USA? Not likely. You need more than nukes. You need nuke delivery systems. While dirigibles would work for that, it wouldn't be very difficult for the Americans to set up air patrols that would intercept long range dirigibles. And where would Germany be getting all the uranium ore it would need to crank out that many?

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

The east coast of the USA? Not likely. You need more than nukes. You need nuke delivery systems. While dirigibles would work for that, it wouldn't be very difficult for the Americans to set up air patrols that would intercept long range dirigibles. And where would Germany be getting all the uranium ore it would need to crank out that many?

Solid point. The USA is clearly the dominant economic power in this world. If New York and Washington were nuked the USA could be struggling to reinstate a federal government.

[dcarson]

Lowish tech nukes will use lots of material per bomb. Little Boy was 140 lbs of U-235 for 15 kilotons, Fat man was 14 lbs of plutonium for 21 kilotons. I don't know if they could get the timing to build the implosion type so the 140 lbs per bomb is more likely.

They built at Oak Ridge because the first TVA dam was done and producing over 100 megawatts. Looking online the UK was maybe 2 terawatt hours per year total. So thats about the same total output as the dam for the whole country.

Enough material for bombs to reduce the east coast to a wasteland is decades of production.

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by dcarson

Enough material for bombs to reduce the east coast to a wasteland is decades of production.

Or more. You'll note that the only nuclear powers to have managed more than a couple hundred weapons are the US and the Soviet Union (and yes, that still holds, they're (probably) maintaining to Soviet stockpile, but I'm pretty sure Russia hasn't actually made more than that yet - they've talked about it, but....)

It's also worth remembering you are thinking about building a massive number of weapons to burn down hundreds of cities in an era when burning down a city was still in the war crime remembered for generations category and not a routine part of war. The Second World War changed that, but these guys are apparently supposed to jump straight to it

Also the delivery system problem is pretty severe. Even if you could move a bomb by zeppelin, which I think you probably could, you only get one per zeppelin - even if it could carry more, it's not fast enough to get far enough away to survive the detonation. It's a suicide mission. Recruiting hundreds or even dozens of suicidal zeppelin crews may be a bit tough.

[Ashtagon]

Originally Posted by malloyd

Also the delivery system problem is pretty severe. Even if you could move a bomb by zeppelin, which I think you probably could, you only get one per zeppelin - even if it could carry more, it's not fast enough to get far enough away to survive the detonation. It's a suicide mission. Recruiting hundreds or even dozens of suicidal zeppelin crews may be a bit tough.

The obvious delivery mechanism would be a junk freighter. That gets around the issue of bomb size (at least as far as transportation goes), and you don't even need to get the bomb airborne for coastal targets. You also get to hide the bomb in plain sight as you sail all the way into the harbour. Once in position, crew sets bomb on a timer then disappears inland.

This method would be good to take out any coastal city. And you could probably do the entire seaboard if you hit all major cities at the same time. If you stagger the attacks, its possible that countermeasures may be set up before the later attacks can take place.

[AlexanderHowl]

Highly inefficient bombs with lots of fallout would also cause disproportionate damage to locations because the lingering radioactivity would deny people access to the locations. A 10 kiloton bomb in NYC might only destroy part of Manhattan, but the fallout could depopulate the entire city as people fled the radiation sickness. Similar circumstances could occur in practically any city on the coast or a navigable river, meaning that most cities in the USA would be vulnerable.

[TGLS]

Originally Posted by Ashtagon

The obvious delivery mechanism would be a junk freighter.

Of course, it wouldn't explain Russia though.