IW What Ifs...?

[Polaris]

Everyone,

Here's a Point of Departure for all of you to consider:

What if FDR never approved the Manhattan Project (or at least never gave it full support as too costly and too unlikely to be usuable in a reasonable time frame....which both turned out to be true)?

My guess is that Nuclear Weapons would be set back globally by at least 5-10 years (because the Soviets stole much of US reserach and Hitler did NOT support the A-bomb for reasons already mentioned). My other guess is that the Berlin Crisis of 1947 would lead to a third world war (or Korea would). Take it from there.....

-Polaris

[tantric]

RE: africa - the major east african kingdom was monomatapa, more or less around great zimbabwe, 1000-1400CE. i'm working on a what-if east africa, as a continent in Yrth. bunch of bantu cities get sucked up circa 1000CE then develop on their own for 1000 yrs. i just hope the new GURPS Banestorm isn't for the whole planet. horses didn't do well in africa, and zebras don't domesticate, which limited development. interestingly, africa totally skipped the bronze age, from stone to iron in one jump.

this is a weird ass site about why tech didn't grow the same in different parts of the world, hard to read but cool:

http://www.alanmacfarlane.com/global/planprog6.htm

for my alternate earth, i like a different version of Lenin, where trotsky beats stalin and communism works. a kind of happy global people's socialist republic. all the IW lenins were dreary.

[Brent]

Okay, what if any of the following cultures now dominated the world directly:

Inuit, North American Moundbuilders, Iroquois, Anasazi, Olmec, Hawaii, Rapa Nui, Maori, Australian Aborigines, Java, Tibet, Mongolia, Turkmen, Balts, Karelians, Saami, Swiss, Basques, Picts, Egypt, Ethiopia, Israel, Babylon

What if George Washington had been King George I, had children, and established a dynasty

The United States was a Christian theocracy from the beginning (Catholic? Anglican?)

Germans guided American colonization in place of the English

Some African group colonized America without any major European presence

The European explorers stimulated some native American groups to imperialism and technology and got out of their way.

[jkelly]

Originally Posted by tantric

this is a weird ass site about why tech didn't grow the same in different parts of the world, hard to read but cool:

http://www.alanmacfarlane.com/global/planprog6.htm

If you're interested in this question at all, I cannot recommend Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel highly enough.

[DryaUnda]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

I believe the most interesting AH's are those which are not oo far away from our own world

This probably depends on aesthetics; for me, it's the exact opposite. I can't get enough of alien parallels.

If I had to do recent what-ifs, I'd start with Teddy Roosevelt getting killed at the battle of San Juan Hill.

One thing I would absolutely avoid are parallels that are political rants.

[patton]

Originally Posted by Polaris

What if FDR never approved the Manhattan Project (or at least never gave it full support as too costly and too unlikely to be usuable in a reasonable time frame....which both turned out to be true)?

My guess is that Nuclear Weapons would be set back globally by at least 5-10 years (because the Soviets stole much of US reserach and Hitler did NOT support the A-bomb for reasons already mentioned). My other guess is that the Berlin Crisis of 1947 would lead to a third world war (or Korea would). Take it from there.....

Interesting divergence -- it leads to the typical predictions of a costly invasion-of-Japan scenario.

Not to be too contentious, but I would suspect that the US (and Truman) wouldn't wait too long to get an A-bomb project going after VJ. Despite the Soviets' lackings in this research they STILL had a nice, fresh, crop of Nazi scientists. I think Dulles, DoD, et al. would be too paranoid to allow the USSR to potentially get ahead of the US in nuclear research.

If the Berlin Crisis started WWIII, some small to mid-sized Russian city(s) would be craters... then what?

[patton]

Originally Posted by tantric

RE: africa - the major east african kingdom was monomatapa, more or less around great zimbabwe, 1000-1400CE...

this is a weird ass site about why tech didn't grow the same in different parts of the world, hard to read but cool:
http://www.alanmacfarlane.com/global/planprog6.htm

Thanks for the info and URL... looks like a good source for lots of "what if" research.

Originally Posted by tantric

for my alternate earth, i like a different version of Lenin, where trotsky beats stalin and communism works. a kind of happy global people's socialist republic. all the IW lenins were dreary.

I'd want to see a better Bakuninist timeline.

[patton]

Originally Posted by Brent

Okay, what if any of the following cultures now dominated the world directly:

Inuit, North American Moundbuilders, Iroquois, Anasazi, Olmec, Hawaii, Rapa Nui, Maori, Australian Aborigines, Java, Tibet, Mongolia, Turkmen, Balts, Karelians, Saami, Swiss, Basques, Picts, Egypt, Ethiopia, Israel, Babylon

woh! That would take a good bit of altering. You can't just say "indo-european" and Western civilization never happens for that. And, you've got some direct competitors in the list. Still, it would be interesting to work out.

Originally Posted by Brent

What if George Washington had been King George I, had children, and established a dynasty

Well, actually that IS what happened. THEY just don't want you to know about it! Fnord!

Originally Posted by Brent

The European explorers stimulated some native American groups to imperialism and technology and got out of their way.

Again, no deliberate contention meant, but: why? Something to stop colonialism in it's tracks? An Amerind vectored virus that Europeans had never been exposed to?

[Ze'Manel Cunha]

Originally Posted by patton

Well, on thing I was thinking off was the possibility of a Carthaginian outpost/colony somewhere on the Sub-Saharan coast growing into an empire. I can't help think I've heard that as an AH scenario someplace else...?[...]Would there be such a thing prior to Islamic migrations? Ethiopia, maybe?

The Belisarius series by Flint & Drake touches on this slightly.
It has one of the better takes I've read regarding an Eastern African Empire, based on the true kingdom of Axum, a nation that developed trade with the Orient, and served as a middle man to the Roman Empire.

[The following is my take on how to get to a present day powerful African Nation. It's a little long.]

Given the very real large powerful and aggressive Axumite (Ethiopian) Empire, it can conceivably survive to modern day.
How you get that surviving Empire, is another issue.

If you go back to the old Prester John legends, give a stronger Coptic Christian Church influence over the people and a more clear dynastic kingship.

The problem is with the emergence of Islam. You can take the normal steps there.
1. Mohammed is never rejected by the Christian church and becomes a christian monk/saint, just another footnote in History.
2. The muslim expansion goes East, and concentrates expansion past India and into China, foregoing crushing the Christian Kingdom to its south.

Or, you can stimulate the growth of Axum and have the great seaport of Adulis strengthen the Axumite Empire to such a level that they can hold off the muslim invasions. Then Axum can build other ports that would be able to take over its shipping Empire once the major coastal changes eliminate Adulis as a functional port.
It would be far-fetched for them to push against North Africa, but Axum could spend a thousand years steadily expanding into Sub-Saharan Africa.

When the Crusades happen, and Richard the Lion Hearted seeks out Prestor John, he would find him in Axum. The Axumites would then seize their chance, and meet their fellow christians in Palestine.
Richard's sexuality was rather dubious, but other dynastic marriages could be arranged, linking Axum with Europe, and re-opening the trade route though the ports which replaced Adulis, sending silk once more from China to Europe.

From the 12th century onward, the great Caliphates would be separated by the Axumite Steel holding the Sinai and Palestine, atrophying on the vine and by the 15th century, North Africa would be divided between Axum, the Sicilies, France, Spain and Portugal, with Axum meeting the Holy Roman Empire across the straits of Constantinople.
With the aid of the Portuguese Armada, in the 16th century, the Persian Gulf would be secured, and Axumite expansion would begin across the Middle East and towards India.
[In our world, the Portuguese actually did secure the Red and Persian seas, and happened to run into the remnants of the Axumites.]

Axum would have the world's technological lead until the Industrial Revolution, since they'd have never gone through a Dark Age.
A canny Axumite leader would seize on the developing techniques coming out of the British Isles, and have their Kingdom moving forward.
As the prostestants push against the catholics, the coptics would seize their advantage ursurp the Indian Ocean from the Portuguese fleets, slamming the door on the newcoming Dutch, and push away the latecoming English.
Axum becomes the hand overseeing India, and the path to China from the West.

The English would eventually reach China, ursurping the Pacific Ocean from the Spanish, but they would never reach past the South China Sea, and the Filipines and SouthEast Asia become the front lines of the influence battles.

[I could go on, but this post is long enough as it is.]

[DrTemp]

Originally Posted by patton

Good scenario though I'm a little unclear on how the delayed succession results in a German A-bomb. Is this because Hitler isn't around to throw things off track by favoring the heavy water process? Also, what would be the consequences in the Pacific?

Well, it is now believed that the Nazi nuclear weapons program was only months from completion. It is also believed that Allied strategic bombings actually hindered the process. The latter would take place later.

What would prevent this from turning into a "limited" nuclear war?

Nothing, actually.

At what date would you set this timeline?

Somewhere in the 1970s, probably. But that's rather a matter of gut feeling.