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Old 09-20-2018, 04:37 AM   #31
dcarson
 
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Default Re: Someone discovers Draka

Same reason that despite it being Japan that attacked us we only sent 10% of our military effort against Japan until after VE day. They were totally outmatched.
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Old 09-20-2018, 10:11 AM   #32
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Well, the Japanese were spending $1 fighting WWII for every $3 occupying China, so you could argue that had the Japanese just focused on Manchuria (which was where all of the modern industry was in China at the time anyway), they would have been a much greater threat to the UK, the USA, and the USSR. Imagine that difficulty that the USA would have faced if the Japanese had doubled their Naval budget and invested it all of the extra funding on aircraft carriers and fighters.
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Old 09-20-2018, 10:42 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Johnston2 View Post
Bah. The Infinite Worlds setting is filled with improbable histories. The Draka setting is no more fundamentally unlikely than one where the Nazis conquer the world.

A few quibbles on that statement:

  • There's a difference between "Conquer the World" and "Achieve superpower status". The world probably requires either ASB or a number of different wars over a long time.
  • The exact reasons for the failure of operation Barbarossa are nuanced, and its not too far fetched for it to have succeeded in at least causing a Russian collapse, though occupation may have stretched them. The role of the west in the eastern front victory is hotly debated by all involved.
  • There is a difference between the Nazi party and Germany. A government formed by a military coup may very well have been able to handle diplomacy much more elegantly.
  • Its easy to say past events were inevitable. I'm not so sure, myself.
  • I don't know much about the Draka, but I get the impression they are much more unlikely than a single multi-year intense war being reversed.


There are a lot of corny Nazi victory timelines people have come up with, but the basic threat was very real at the time, and ASB are hardly needed to end WWII favorably for Germany.
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Old 09-20-2018, 11:56 AM   #34
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I'm with eric, here. Determinism is just another way to say "profound lack of imagination." Don't be some sort of pedant and say something like "if by 'determinism' you mean 'making judgements based upon reality' then, guilty!" I've heard that before and it is just as juvenile now as then. I'll give my usual answer: With a distant enough POD one can plausibly imagine all sorts of things.

But you don't even need a really distant POD for this one. There are plausible scenarios for Nazi Germany winning WWII... depending upon how one defines "winning". Conquering the world? No, obviously not. But the USSR collapses after Barbarosa succeeds in capturing Moscow, and the UK then sues for peace? Hmm... not at all unlikely. Once the USSR is out of play that frees up a LOT of German divisions. Even better if Hitler is dead and someone rational is running Germany. (Though it would probably still be another Nazi.)

Granted, the best such scenarios are very early. Once Barbarossa essentially fails and the USSR has time for a buildup then the writing is pretty much on the wall. Even worse when the US declares war, of course.

Most authors tend to stretch far too much out of a Nazi victory scenario, though. After all they are trying to be shocking, or at least dystopian, so they all turn into world conquest. But I'd like to see a decent treatment of the more limited scenario, above. Imagine what the late '40s and early '50s would be like, living with a strong Nazi Germany in the world. What would the German-American Bund do? How does the United Kingdom interact with Germany? The US still curb-stomps Japan, obviously, but does Germany even try to do anything about it? Why would they?

Really, it's a LOT more implausible to come up with a Japan Wins timeline than a Germany Wins timeline.

Last edited by acrosome; 09-20-2018 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 09-20-2018, 03:18 PM   #35
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Probably the simplest way to get a German WW II European victory would be to have Churchill die at some point before 1930. Without his drive, there is a very good chance of an end to hostilities between Germany and the UK after the fall of France. Combine this with a successful attempt on Moscow that kills Stalin, and a treaty similar to the Brest-Litivosk Treaty in 1918 likely allows Germany to survive as a new Super Power.
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Old 09-20-2018, 04:05 PM   #36
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Probably the simplest way to get a German WW II European victory would be to have Churchill die at some point before 1930. Without his drive, there is a very good chance of an end to hostilities between Germany and the UK after the fall of France. Combine this with a successful attempt on Moscow that kills Stalin, and a treaty similar to the Brest-Litivosk Treaty in 1918 likely allows Germany to survive as a new Super Power.
Also have one of the many German plots to remove Hitler from power actually succeed and have him replaced by someone more militarily competent. (Fact is, the Allies worked to thwart those, because his disconnect from reality normally worked in the Allies' favor from a military standpoint.) Think about if "Valkyrie" had succeeded....
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Old 09-20-2018, 05:10 PM   #37
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acrosome:
But I'd like to see a decent treatment of the more limited scenario, above. Imagine what the late '40s and early '50s would be like, living with a strong Nazi Germany in the world. What would the German-American Bund do? How does the United Kingdom interact with Germany? The US still curb-stomps Japan, obviously, but does Germany even try to do anything about it? Why would they?

Like this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatherland_%28novel%29
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Old 09-20-2018, 09:30 PM   #38
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Another possibility is that the Japanese not allying with the Germans before going to war with the USA. Without an alliance with the Germans, the Japanese would have likely not been confident enough to attack Pearl Harbor. If the Japanese had invaded Guam and Philippines instead of attacking Pearl Harbor, the isolationistic elements in Congress would have likely prevented any declaration of war against the Japanese because they did not approve of the having foreign territories anyway (and, since they were Republican, they would have done so to embarrass FDR).

The end result would have been the Japanese getting Guam and the Philippines with minimal trouble, the US not entering World War II to help the British or the USSR, and the Japanese having complete free rein to take over the British territories in the Pacific. Without the assistance of the USA after they entered the war, the British would have likely sued for peace and the USSR would have fallen. Germany would have eventually collapsed in the 1950s because they economic model was severely flawed, but they would have likely killed off twice as many people before their inevitable end.
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Old 09-21-2018, 05:33 AM   #39
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That seems very unlikely. The American public opinion was already rallied against Japan. Any attack would likely be perceived the same way as Pearl Harbor, as it would be preceded by a declaration of war, or it would have also been a surprise attack.
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Old 09-21-2018, 01:10 PM   #40
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I would argue extremely unlikely. In 1941 the U.S. had a very sizable military commitment in the Philippines, for the size of U.S. armed forces. Furthermore a lot of the U.S.'s interwar war planning was for a major showdown with Japan in the Philippines, at least until the rise of Hitler. Separating the Japanese from the Berlin:Rome Axis could make a difference, without Hitler's deceleration of war on the U.S. the U.S.'s commitment to Europe would have been muted.

A more intriguing outcome from a less daring attack on the Philippines might be that in 1941 the best trained and most modern Navy of any size in the world was Japans. Given Japan's superior readiness, and equipment in 1941 into 1942, there is a very real chance that the U.S. could have badly loss their battle with the IJN. By losing these units and men at sea, instead of in Pearl Harbor, they would have been almost total losses. All but the Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Nevada were repaired and put back to sea, and most of the crews were available for new construction coming out of New Deal work programs, as soon as the units were launched.

Japan will still lose, but may make it into 1946, or even 1947, if the Manhattan Project get less funding due to less early concentration on Nazi Germany.
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