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Old 04-25-2018, 11:40 PM   #31
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I would also avoid treating today's tech as being the standard measure for GURPS TLs. We've gone further down the road of miniaturised and massively networked computers than GURPS expected.
In what way? I mean the last GURPS edition was made in like 2004 so it's not all that long ago really.
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Old 04-26-2018, 12:04 AM   #32
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Default Re: 2300 ad tl

That's three years before the first iphone. Since then we've been putting 'smart', networked with wi-fi, cellphone connectivity, etc. electronics into just about everything. We store stuff in a 'cloud' that's whoknowswhere, and access it from any piece of electronics that we can persuade to take our user credentials, and large portions of the population are effectively never offline.
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Old 04-26-2018, 02:24 PM   #33
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In what way? I mean the last GURPS edition was made in like 2004 so it's not all that long ago really.
Mostly it is in the information tech and related, where Ultratech(UT) assumes that there is only 100 fold increase in computer speed between TL 8 and 9.

One of the related things is that it is a future where the iPhone was not invented and mobile internet is not a thing. UT speaks of being able to create combination gadgets and speaks of wearable computers and ability to download encyclopedias, High tech(HT) only speaks of the internet as file sharing,mail video conferencing and such, not the wast access to information that we take today for granted. The ability to Google a thing and receive almost any sort of information and the vast information trove in Wikipedia and so on is mindblowing when you think about it. What is even more amazing is that you can do it from almost anywhere with your smartphone. Characters has this TL 8 wearable computer that uses displayglases instead of a smartphone type device. And so on.

Then there are quite many more minor "more nitpicky" other tech trends that seem unlikely to go the way predicted in UT. in UT they have TL 9 smart car be with fuel cell and only TL 10 be full electric, Delivery drones be TL 10. Both electric cars and delivery drones seem more likely to be early TL 9.

Also there are things that will likely not be that way, there are implant communicators, with the one that taps optical nerves too being an oddity. If we indeed do that I would think it would always be a computer(like a smartphone) and not just a communicator. The extra thing needed to make it so much more useful would be minimal.

There is also a talk of generic home robots in UT, but neither UT or HT mention the robots quite many people have in their homes today, robtic vacuum cleaners and mowers.

HT has a number of technologies that are only listed as their 2007 levels, like the storage capacity of compters and external memory, the price of thermographs and so on.

In UT encrypted signals at TL 9 can be cracked in a personal computer in 1000 hours not 6.4 quadrillion years.

Basically technology predicting technology trends more than a year in advance is very hard, so it is no wonder that even in 10 years some things have gone sideways.

TLDR; In 10 years tech has gone sideways with inventions note foreseen in 2007.
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Old 04-26-2018, 09:49 PM   #34
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Default Re: 2300 ad tl

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Originally Posted by Rupert View Post
That's three years before the first iphone. Since then we've been putting 'smart', networked with wi-fi, cellphone connectivity, etc. electronics into just about everything. We store stuff in a 'cloud' that's whoknowswhere, and access it from any piece of electronics that we can persuade to take our user credentials, and large portions of the population are effectively never offline.
I finished my portions of High-Tech in late 2006. The first iPhone came out in June of 2007. We've had a decade of incredible growth in portable electronics, wearables, inter-connectivity, etc. My car drives itself, my phones knows and marks the when and where of every picture I've taken, and I can carry my whole library of GURPS books with me everywhere, in my pocket. I can watch my favorite movies anywhere, anytime I choose. Amazing.
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Old 04-26-2018, 11:47 PM   #35
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I finished my portions of High-Tech in late 2006. The first iPhone came out in June of 2007. We've had a decade of incredible growth in portable electronics, wearables, inter-connectivity, etc. My car drives itself, my phones knows and marks the when and where of every picture I've taken, and I can carry my whole library of GURPS books with me everywhere, in my pocket. I can watch my favorite movies anywhere, anytime I choose. Amazing.
But weren't a lot of these things already being predicted in HT & UT? Or is it the speed with which we're reaching some of these predictions regarding electronics?
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Old 04-27-2018, 06:59 AM   #36
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But weren't a lot of these things already being predicted in HT & UT? Or is it the speed with which we're reaching some of these predictions regarding electronics?
It’s really the inter-connectivity and ubiquitous nature of it all. Ten years ago I was mainly using Netflix for watching DVDs. Now I don’t even use that part of the service. It’s an app on my phone.
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Old 04-27-2018, 08:06 AM   #37
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It’s really the inter-connectivity and ubiquitous nature of it all. Ten years ago I was mainly using Netflix for watching DVDs. Now I don’t even use that part of the service. It’s an app on my phone.
Not only the access to such, but the fact that you carry it with you everywhere.

When you were using the DVSs and wanted to watch a show on the road you needed a separate gadget(portable dvd player) and even if you had the DVSs at home you had to take them with you. Today it is just one of the many things on the device you carry with you anyway.

The combination of mobile internet and a smartphone has really changed access to so many things. While HT talks about the internet there is obviously nothing about how ever present the mobile internet was going to be, because at that point it was a pain and slow to use on the few devices that supported it.

I mean, not even Apple saw it coming at that point and they were building the iPhone. But the original iPhone as it launched did not have Apps, they saw music to working as with the iPod, that is you download/rip the music to your music library on the device and so on.
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Old 04-27-2018, 11:36 PM   #38
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Default Re: 2300 ad tl

Speaking of DVDs, considering Ultra HD Blu-Rays have come out, and we're starting to see the start of 8K broadcasts, are we reaching late TL8 in storage and display technology?

We're also seeing commercial VR becoming viable (hopefully with less motion sickness though).
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Old 04-28-2018, 01:02 AM   #39
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Speaking of DVDs, considering Ultra HD Blu-Rays have come out, and we're starting to see the start of 8K broadcasts, are we reaching late TL8 in storage and display technology?

We're also seeing commercial VR becoming viable (hopefully with less motion sickness though).
Well UT puts start of TL 9 at 2020/2025/2030/2040/2050. So given the two fist numbers it is no wonder we are starting so see some TL 9 technologies in prototype/early form and then general availability/normal use in TL 9.

Technologies like self driving cars, SDXC cards reaching the 1TB capacity of TL 9 maybe this year, VR getting there and so on.

But those are really computer based things, some other technologies are further from TL 9. I mean there is not general use of caseless firearms anytime soon, flying cars have been "in maybe 10 years" for several decades now, Fusion power kind of the same and so on.
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Old 04-28-2018, 01:32 AM   #40
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Well UT puts start of TL 9 at 2020/2025/2030/2040/2050. So given the two fist numbers it is no wonder we are starting so see some TL 9 technologies in prototype/early form and then general availability/normal use in TL 9.

Technologies like self driving cars, SDXC cards reaching the 1TB capacity of TL 9 maybe this year, VR getting there and so on.

But those are really computer based things, some other technologies are further from TL 9. I mean there is not general use of caseless firearms anytime soon, flying cars have been "in maybe 10 years" for several decades now, Fusion power kind of the same and so on.
That's why I specifically noted storage & display technology. We'd probably be one of those civilizations in GURPS Infinite Worlds that is TL X in most things while being TL Y in something in parenthesis.

Last edited by warellis; 04-28-2018 at 01:43 AM.
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