04-12-2012, 01:14 AM | #1 |
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
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Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
Hi guys,
recently I got to know THS and I am really fascinated. Looks like all transhumanists have been working together in order to develop a realistic depiction of the future. I am wondering how realistic the positive scenario that is presented in this rpg really is. I hope I do not repeat a discussion that has been conducted over and over again. I am really curious about your thoughts. In principle I regard most assumptions of THS as being rather realistic. However I have the following concerns that I do not see covered in the books. Most concerns touch on economic/financial issues. - Europe is being shown as a very well-off power bloc. However THS also acknowledges the fact that Europe was and is rather conservative on emerging technologies (think about GMOs). So is the assumption of a strong Europe really realistic? - Somewhere I read that big corporations still hire a lot of "cheap" labor from developing countries. Something that is has also been driving globalization over the last years. Again, is it realistic that high-cost countries fare so well? - Public debt and the non-sustainability of the warfare state (US) and the welfare-state (EU) - i.e. the current problems are not treated. Of course I can see that in the long run nanoprocessing will enable a generous welfare state. Still, there is still global competition on taxes. - Similarly there is a problem with pension systems - bitcoin is not mentioned at all;) - How do financial markets work in general? Any changes here? - With respect to technology. How does space travel work? I do not see an economical way to get into orbit. How has this problem been solved? Final question: How would you rewrite the THS timeline ten years after you initially designed the RPG? |
04-12-2012, 05:19 AM | #2 | ||||||||
Night Watchman
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Cambridge, UK
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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Something to remember is that most science fiction, including THS, is not about predicting the future. It's about telling a good story that also makes you think; THS provides a framework for a variety of games, and the setting is weird enough to require quite a bit of thought. SF always reflects the time at which it was written, and THS reflects the rather unfocused optimism of the time between the fall of the Eastern Bloc and 9/11. It's hardly surprising that it seems less plausible 13 years later, after many things have changed. Quote:
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Last edited by johndallman; 04-12-2012 at 05:22 AM. Reason: quoting, spelling |
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04-12-2012, 06:40 AM | #3 | |
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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Bill Stoddard |
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04-12-2012, 07:20 AM | #4 | |
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
Thanks for the answers.
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04-12-2012, 07:37 AM | #5 | ||||
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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- Add details on World economy and finance. This is actually quite an interesting topic as we had to witness over the last years. Duncanites could be presented as the adherents of currencies like bitcoins that threaten to undermine established monetary systems. (I for myself think that for the future this topic might become just as controversial and important as nano-socialism). - Additional content on Virtual Reality. Just because THS is not Shadowrun we do not need to give up on doing Runs, do we? - Introduce a big foe. Most players are struggling to come up with generic simple campaigns (like kill the wizard and rescue the princess). To me most "enemies" are actually not 100% evil (TSA, blue shadows, ...), or are too boring (Martian Triads) or are just too powerful to combat as a group of 4 slightly-above average dudes (Kazakztan dictator) My suggestion: It would be cool to have an adventure on xox cults. Because these guys are really spooky but not completely unrealistic. |
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04-12-2012, 07:46 AM | #6 | ||||
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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-- MA Lloyd |
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04-12-2012, 07:46 AM | #7 | |
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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The idea that Europe can continue to sustain a massive welfare state is looking less convincing now than it did ten years ago, to be sure. Back around the turn of the century, most people still enjoyed the sense of optimism that goes with an economic boom and continuing moderate inflation. Bill Stoddard |
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04-12-2012, 07:52 AM | #8 |
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
Interesting discussion. thanks for the comments already given.
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04-12-2012, 09:25 AM | #9 | ||||
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: At the Stern, Raising the Black
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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I don't even want to get into bitcoin or the workings of the financial markets of the future (as it is, I am pretty clueless about how those of today work). Regarding the real space travel of the future, I suspect that there will not be too much of it. By and large I agree with johndallman's assessment about the future: Quote:
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"I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams." |
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04-12-2012, 09:56 AM | #10 | |
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
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Re: Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years
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Lets assume that there will be no miracle and that the crisis turns out to be as dramatic as the Great Depression. Then long-term consequences can be dire indeed! I know a bit about history. What most people do not know: Hitler was not elected because everybody was anti-semitic and because everybody wanted to have revenge for the defeat of WWI. Of course this part of his agenda was also communicated and well-known. But during his election campaigns, the focus was really on 1) fighting the communists and bringing back law&order and more importantly 2) to create employment through economic policies similar to the ones of FDR I do not want to be alarmist, but things might happen that will have large repercussions. |
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Tags |
economics, scenario, ths |
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