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Old 08-23-2020, 12:56 AM   #131
AlexanderHowl
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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The bottom line is that, whenever you predict current capability against future problems, you will always predict disaster. However, future capability should also be accounted for. Especially future capability we already know how to do.
I am quite familiar with the above concepts, and they do not matter for the purpose of the population figures given in Space. Arcologies are not sustainable population centers, they have enormous energy requirements, with the per capita energy requirements increasing as the population density increases. In addition, certain elements vital to agriculture and technology (copper, gold, iron, phosphorus, and silver just to name a few) are already near peak production for efficiency purposes, and the energy cost to increase their production increases exponentially.

For example, you would need an energy production of around 30 PW to support 30 billion people at TL9 average income (1 MW per person). The Earth only receives 170 PW of sunlight, so you would either need to blanket most og the world with solar panels to generate 30 PW or you need to add to the energy budget with fusion, orbital solar, etc. Either way, you dramatically alter the environment of the Earth. It actually becomes cheaper and more efficient to move people off the Earth, even with realistic technology, than to turn the Earth into a world city.
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Old 08-23-2020, 01:09 AM   #132
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
I am quite familiar with the above concepts, and they do not matter for the purpose of the population figures given in Space. Arcologies are not sustainable population centers, they have enormous energy requirements, with the per capita energy requirements increasing as the population density increases. In addition, certain elements vital to agriculture and technology (copper, gold, iron, phosphorus, and silver just to name a few) are already near peak production for efficiency purposes, and the energy cost to increase their production increases exponentially.

For example, you would need an energy production of around 30 PW to support 30 billion people at TL9 average income (1 MW per person). The Earth only receives 170 PW of sunlight, so you would either need to blanket most og the world with solar panels to generate 30 PW or you need to add to the energy budget with fusion, orbital solar, etc. Either way, you dramatically alter the environment of the Earth. It actually becomes cheaper and more efficient to move people off the Earth, even with realistic technology, than to turn the Earth into a world city.
Or you could plaster the roof of your city planet with green space, and the trivial energy costs (the few thousand kW/day that a 3-5 person house requires) can be supplied with fusion power.
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In which I post about a TL9-10 solar system

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Old 08-23-2020, 01:20 AM   #133
AlexanderHowl
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

That does not work for the requirements of supporting 30 billion people earning an average of GURPS$47,000 per year on the Earth though. The energy requirements far outstrip anything we are familiar with and rapidly increase to a K1 level. It just becomes much cheaper and more more efficient to expand throughout the Sol System. Even supporting our current population at TL8 at GURPS$31,000 would require energy expenditures that would exceed global GDP because of the exponentially increasing energy costs.

Last edited by AlexanderHowl; 08-23-2020 at 01:24 AM.
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Old 08-23-2020, 01:36 AM   #134
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
That does not work for the requirements of supporting 30 billion people earning an average of GURPS$47,000 per year on the Earth though. The energy requirements far outstrip anything we are familiar with and rapidly increase to a K1 level. It just becomes much cheaper and more more efficient to expand throughout the Sol System. Even supporting our current population at TL8 at GURPS$31,000 would require energy expenditures that would exceed global GDP because of the exponentially increasing energy costs.
You seem to have some conversion between watt-energy and dollars (GURPSBucks). I would be interested in a link or page reference.

Particularly since you have already stated that:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
For example, you would need an energy production of around 30 PW to support 30 billion people at TL9 average income (1 MW per person). The Earth only receives 170 PW of sunlight,...
And the above post seems to contradict that.
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Old 08-23-2020, 02:03 AM   #135
AlexanderHowl
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

7.5 billion people at $31,000 per capita at TL8 requires a lot less energy than 30 billion people at $47,000 per capita at TL9. TL9 energy consumption would likely be much higher per $1 than TL8 energy consumption, probably a minimum of 4x as much energy per $, so you are probably talking about a minimum of 24x as much energy consumption (assuming you were distributed throughout the Solar System rather than concentrated on Earth). In addition, 7.5 billion people at $31,000 per capita at TL8 would consume 5x as much energy as our current civilization, meaning that the final difference for a distributed society would be 120x as much energy consumption (~2.16 PW).

If you are concentrated though, you have to spend energy to bring resources from off the Earth to the Earth, as it would likely be more efficient than mining the Earth when consumption needs to be 4x to 100x greater (depending on the resource). Interplanetary travel is energy expensive, so the total energy used by human civilization increases greatly. Energy consumption rapidly reach K1 levels, >10 PW, as more and more resources are transported from places further and further from the Earth. In addition, you also need to worry about cooling, ventilation, etc., as the waste heat alone starts cooking the Earth, which increases energy consumption even more. Eventually, the Earth ends up looking like a WH40K Hive World.

Last edited by AlexanderHowl; 08-23-2020 at 02:08 AM.
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Old 08-23-2020, 07:17 AM   #136
Fred Brackin
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by Say, it isn't that bad! View Post
You seem to have missed a bit. :)
I noticed it the frst time around but it was later when I decided to answer your query about why no one was responding to your Flavor Text.

Your space colony is still excessively big for TL11. A capacity of 900 million is.....let's be polite and call it extreme. I seriously doubt you'd have a extra-large nation's worth of people who wanted to leave Earth just to move into a really big apartment building. Even a major metropolis's worth is a maybe yes/maybe no.

.....but this takes up back to "It's your setting and you can put what you want into it.".
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Old 08-23-2020, 04:12 PM   #137
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by Fred Brackin View Post
I noticed it the frst time around but it was later when I decided to answer your query about why no one was responding to your Flavor Text.

Your space colony is still excessively big for TL11. A capacity of 900 million is.....let's be polite and call it extreme. I seriously doubt you'd have a extra-large nation's worth of people who wanted to leave Earth just to move into a really big apartment building. Even a major metropolis's worth is a maybe yes/maybe no.

.....but this takes up back to "It's your setting and you can put what you want into it.".
Ahh; I mistook your point. Yeah, from that perspective, the math doesn't work out, even with a lot of people already in space. 8 Flora already probably has some significant fraction of that populace; but even then, they wouldn't have moved in all at once.

Even as a "wonder project", that makes it too large. I'm going to edit it down by -2 SM...
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In which I post about a TL9-10 solar system

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Old 08-23-2020, 04:13 PM   #138
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
7.5 billion people at $31,000 per capita at TL8 requires a lot less energy than 30 billion people at $47,000 per capita at TL9. TL9 energy consumption would likely be much higher per $1 than TL8 energy consumption, probably a minimum of 4x as much energy per $, so you are probably talking about a minimum of 24x as much energy consumption (assuming you were distributed throughout the Solar System rather than concentrated on Earth). In addition, 7.5 billion people at $31,000 per capita at TL8 would consume 5x as much energy as our current civilization, meaning that the final difference for a distributed society would be 120x as much energy consumption (~2.16 PW).

If you are concentrated though, you have to spend energy to bring resources from off the Earth to the Earth, as it would likely be more efficient than mining the Earth when consumption needs to be 4x to 100x greater (depending on the resource). Interplanetary travel is energy expensive, so the total energy used by human civilization increases greatly. Energy consumption rapidly reach K1 levels, >10 PW, as more and more resources are transported from places further and further from the Earth. In addition, you also need to worry about cooling, ventilation, etc., as the waste heat alone starts cooking the Earth, which increases energy consumption even more. Eventually, the Earth ends up looking like a WH40K Hive World.
I responded to your assumptions on energy consumption in the other thread; to put it simply, I don't agree.
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