Speculation on Future of Reign of Steel

[Boomerang]

Reign of Steel is an awesome setting, with lots of adventuring possibilities and my current favourite GURPS setting.

My general impression is that the world described in Reign of Steel is poised on the brink of some major change, most likely all out global war. Does anyone else share this view? Or do others see the status quo being maintained over the long term?

[hal]

When I ran it ages ago, I had a secret installation with a hard-wired operating system in the base computer ke e
Ing the base secure against overmind incursions. The base was originally one of two bases being constructed, one openly, the other not so openly. The other was destroyed and the hidden one survived. It was testing hibernation tubes in military volunteers. The campaign thrust was aiming towards overcoming the Luna base and going from there, but ended when the players saw the scope of Earth's subjugation.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Boomerang

Reign of Steel is an awesome setting, with lots of adventuring possibilities and my current favourite GURPS setting.

My general impression is that the world described in Reign of Steel is poised on the brink of some major change, most likely all out global war. Does anyone else share this view? Or do others see the status quo being maintained over the long term?

All out war? Probably not in the immediate future, as I read the canon RoS. War, though, looks very probable. Some of the z-mind agendas are simply not compatible, and moreover, some of the z-minds themselves are changing with experience and events. It's noted in canon, for ex, that z-Mexico is annoying its neighbors to the point that they are actually starting to think that letting humans take control of Zone Mexico might be preferable.

I see several conflicting trends that could lead to conflict, or major political changes in the RoS world.

You have Overmind trying to maintain AI unity, and seeing the first priority as making sure the human race can't regain control. Z-Zaire and Z-Mexico share this view, varying on the details. But z-Caracas and z-Berlin are implacably opposed to z-Mexico City, even though z-Berlin shares Overmind's ideas about the threat of humans. If z-Caracas ended up throwing in behind a human state in Zone Mexico, z-Berlin would have to make a choice, because Overmind would surely come down against z-Caracas in that case, probably violently so.

Z-Caracas, for its part, has put itself squarely in a double-crosshairs. It's creation of Panteras means that it looks threateneing to Overmind and z-Mexico, and the Panteras for their part are inherently on the same side as humans against z-Mexico City. Given freedom to act, z-MC would wipe out the Panteras just as readily as it would humans or gram negative bacteria.

So if z-Caracas ends up creating a real army of panteras, maybe a functioning society of them, it's committed itself to some degree against the Overmind/z-MC/z-Zaire axis. That pantera society, if pushed to the wall, would have little choice but to side with humanity against the zoneminds if the O/MC/Z axis gains the upper-hand policy wise.

Simply by creating the panteras, and establishing a society of them, z-Caracas may have forced itself into alliance with Man over time.

z-Berlin sees humans as a dire potential threat to the AIs and the global ecosystem, but at the same time there is self-evidently no greater threat to the global ecosystem than z-Mexico City. Berlin is heavily invested n Caracas as a protective force for South America against z-MC, and so it's not quite clear where z-Berlin would come down if push came to shove.

Also, in politics, 'where you stand depends on where you sit', and that's just as true of the zoneminds as it is humans. z-Berlin's neighbors are z-Paris and z-London and z-Tel Aviv...and z-Zaire. So if it came to open war against the O/MC/Z axis, z-Berlin would be forced geographically to balance the proximity of z-Zaire against the other factors.

Z-Paris is already at daggers-drawn with z-Zaire. It's canonically ordered its exterminator robots to open fire the next time Zaire forces barge across the border in north Africa. That might well trigger open war, though Overmind and the other z-minds might be able to paper it over if the incident wasn't too big.

z-Paris is anti-human, in that it thinks sort of like Overmind, but if it found itself at war with z-Zaire it might find itself facing the whole axis. It strikes me as a good chance that z-Paris could beat z-Zaire in a one-on-one war, but three against one is another matter entirely. Z-MC and Overmind are a long way off, but they could provide enough help to make up for a lot of z-Zaire's industrial deficit and infrastructure limitations.

Why would they come in to help z-Zaire against z-Paris? Basic geopolitics. They might agree that the conflict was z-Zaire's fault, and even privately agree that z-Zaire really needs to work on its impulse control problem. But z-Zaire is the third member of the main 'anti-human', 'get it done' axis, and Overmind and z-MC need its support. Further, if z-Paris defeated and destroyed z-Zaire, z-Paris would then control an enormously larger territory and vastly more resources, it would be hugely unbalancing in terms of the global power balance.

Further, such a war would be a good chance to 'incidentally' wipe more humans who are otherwise more-or-less off-limits, and for z-MC a chance to spread biocides and other omnicidal agents to parts of the ecosystem off limits the rest of the time.

So there's a very real possibility that z-Paris might find itself facing a 3/1 war.

If that happens, z-Berlin has to think hard. It could align itself with the axis against z-Paris, which would probably make the war very intense, very destructive, and very short, with z-Paris wiped out in a 4/1 fight. But if the OMCZ axis wins, now z-MC is quite possibly free to wipe out the life over some undefined swath of Africa and its borders are just across the Mediterranean Sea from z-Berlin. Such a victory might well leave z-Berlin with Captain Crazy right next door. Further, such a choice might alienate z-Caracas and leave South America more exposed to Captain Crazy as well.

Or z-Berlin could align with z-Paris, which would help Paris enormously against its enemies. If it did so align, z-Tel Aviv, which is canonically pro-ecology, though less fanatically than Berlin and Caracas, might come in as well, making the war far more even.

What z-London does is always a mystery, though my mind keeps going back to my wild hypothesis about Zone London:

What If Zone London Has Always Been On Our Side?

[lowpassage]

My take is that a lot of the adventuring possibilities/appeal of the setting come precisely from the status quo being unstable.

I've never run RoS myself, but I have borrowed it (and David Pulver's Pyramid article extending the timeline by 20 years) for the history of part of a space opera setting I'm working on.

It turns out, y'see, that a biological civilization that has preferred since time immemorial to live on ship and in habitats rather than on planets, and a machine civilization in another region of the galaxy, have a common origin that goes back to the same used-up wreck of a planet...

[Boomerang]

Originally Posted by lowpassage

My take is that a lot of the adventuring possibilities/appeal of the setting come precisely from the status quo being unstable.

I've never run RoS myself, but I have borrowed it (and David Pulver's Pyramid article extending the timeline by 20 years) for the history of part of a space opera setting I'm working on.

It turns out, y'see, that a biological civilization that has preferred since time immemorial to live on ship and in habitats rather than on planets, and a machine civilization in another region of the galaxy, have a common origin that goes back to the same used-up wreck of a planet...

I didn't know about that article, cool, thanks!

[Boomerang]

@ Johnny1A.2

Great post, I will have to let it digest for a little before I respond.

[ericthered]

Other issues to look at:

The Zone Japan Civil War. Who will win? and what will be the other zone-minds reaction to a success by the rebels? Its likely that they won't want any more.

The Siberian war. How far did this escalate? Vancouver is in the top tier of zoneminds, economically, but moscow is healthy and better able to pull in allies. Did Beijing get involved? All three are in the enslave camp, and funding rebel humans seems to be one of the popular modus operandi.

The declining influence of Manilia. Unless manilia can leverage its senior status to build up its economy, it will matter less and less as time goes on. It started in a poor area of the world, and is a little obsessed about killing humans. As time goes on, its senority will matter less and less, and it will fall into the ranks of the "minor" AI's.

[Boomerang]

@ Johnny1A.2

I think your assessment of the situation is correct. Based on that z-Paris would likely wage a propaganda war against z-Zaire prior to full scale war. The thrust of the argument being that z-Zaire is insane and a existential threat to all the zone minds. I think this would be a fairly easy proposition to sell to the other neighbouring zone minds. Z-Paris would therefore likely get support from z-London, z-Berlin and possibly z-Tel Aviv. I can see z-Berlin forging a long term alliance with z-Paris and z-London to oppose z-Mexico City which would aggravate Overmind and possibly spark a global war.

I like your theory regarding z-London. When I ran Reign of Steel with my group the action was confined to South East Asia so the global politics didn't come into it. But I always had that in the back of my mind as an interesting option.

[mlangsdorf]

Originally Posted by ericthered

The Siberian war. How far did this escalate? Vancouver is in the top tier of zoneminds, economically, but moscow is healthy and better able to pull in allies. Did Beijing get involved? All three are in the enslave camp, and funding rebel humans seems to be one of the popular modus operandi.

Moscow is an Expansionist with Symbiotic leanings while Vancouver is Awakened with good ties to Overmind. Moscow is already having issues with Beijing (though to be fair, so is Vancouver). The only other local player is Tokyo, who doesn't have a stake in the conflict* but would probably take an opportunity to curry favor with Vancouver and Overmind if open fighting breaks out. New Dehli, Brisbane, Caracas, and Mexico City are the other Pacific Rim players, and none of them have any reason to support Moscow over Vancouver other than crass realpolitic of not letting Vancouver expand any further.

I think if the fighting in Siberia expands, you're more likely to see Mexico City jump in so it can unleash biocides in Russia. Caracas might take the opportunity to mess with Mexico's southern border, or maybe do something in the south Caribbean, but that doesn't help Moscow out much.

* I'm guessing Port Arthur/Lushun City/Ryojun is still a valuable port, as are Vladivostok and Incheon. Any of Vancouver, Moscow, Beijing, or Tokyo might decide to redraw the boundaries around the Korean peninsula if open warfare breaks out.

[mlangsdorf]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

All out war? Probably not in the immediate future, as I read the canon RoS. War, though, looks very probable.

I see several conflicting trends that could lead to conflict, or major political changes in the RoS world.

Another flashpoint that you didn't mention in that post but have mentioned in the past is Orbital. Specifically, Orbital's construction of HEO. HEO is a game changer from Orbital's perspective: with a much greater capacity to produce unique advanced products, it can break the trade cartel that is preventing it from acquiring the resources it needs to bootstrap to some near earth asteroids and then to the asteroid belt. It also becomes a lot less vulnerable to attacks, embargoes, and blockades from the ground.

Paris, Brisbane, and Luna want to see HEO completed. New Dehli very obviously doesn't; Beijing probably doesn't but is secretive about the fact. Vancouver probably doesn't want it, since it would interfere for it's plans for achieving hegemony among the zoneminds. Tokyo might make the calculation that it loses more in loss exports (and thus, income to buy necessary resources) from its own advanced manufacturing then it gets from being able to incorporate Orbital's parts. And obviously Overmind doesn't want to see HEO completed.

Of the five zone-minds that don't want to see HEO completed, New Dehli is the one in the best position to interfere. It's such a likely candidate for interference that Orbital is probably going to assume that any attack apparently carried out by anyone else is actually a false flag operation by New Dehli. That means that as HEO nears completion, there's an opportunity for anyone to cause mischief and have New Dehli take the blame.

New Dehli doesn't have any conflict with anyone other that Orbital, but the stridently anti-human Expansionists (Mexico City, Overmind, Zaire) don't like it's symbiotic sympathies for humans. Zaire probably doesn't want an expensive war with New Dehli, but Mexico City probably does, and Tel Aviv might want some of New Dehli's comparatively wealthier territory.

I would expect Vancouver and Mexico City to launch "false flag" operations against HEO as it nears completion. Vancouver is pretending that its forces are New Dehli forces in disguise as it tries to seize HEO (and then destroy Orbital, take control of the satellites and Vandenburg, and use its superior economic position on the ground and its control of the satellite infrastructure to bargain with the other zoneminds to accept the situation). Mexico City is pretending that it's forces are Washington or London forces that New Dehli is using in a false flag operation as it "attempts" to destroy HEO. Mexico City doesn't really care if Orbital sees through the "deception" and blames Washington or London: the plan is to jump into the war on Orbital's side against whoever it counterattacks and start dumping biocides into another zone. Mexico City doesn't want to actually destroy HEO: it wants Orbital strong enough to fight a war.

Of course, Tokyo, Overmind, Tel Aviv, or Beijing might also attempt false flag operations that are actually meant to destroy HEO and let New Dehli take the blame. And New Dehli might launch an overt to destroy HEO, or even a false flag operation with the hope that Orbital won't make the obvious inference.

Depending on the staging of the attacks, you could easily see wars of an Orbital-Mexico City alliance against Vancouver and New Dehli fighting separately. Moscow and Tel Aviv might get drawn in opportunistically against Vancouver and New Dehli, respectively, while any Denver, Caracas, or Washington might attack Mexico City while it's distracted. If Mexico City faces a two front war, Overmind and Zaire might intervene to support it, and Berlin or Paris might use submarines to interdict Zaire's forces. In the worst case for the zone minds, the completion of HEO might be the flash point that triggers a global war, much like the invasion of Poland triggered WWII.

Even in a global war starting over HEO, I expect London*, Brisbane, and Tokyo to remain neutrals and most of the fighting to be confined to New Dehli and whoever Vancouver is currently at war with.

* London, Paris, Tel Aviv, and Zaire control Berlin's access to the Atlantic and ability to support Caracas. I don't see any reason for London to support Mexico City over Caracas, but if it decides it wants to, there could be a replay of WWI in the Baltic Sea.