Why Germany Matters

[Jürgen Hubert]

Another issue which I am trying to figure out is the SAI population in Germany.

The SAI population is said to be "less than 100 million". Let's make that 90 million.

There are 11 billion people on Earth, with 72 million of them in Germany. If SAIs are divided proportionally among all nations, Germany would have around 600,000 SAIs.

But Germany has an average Wealth level of "Wealthy", and thus presumably can afford to create far more SAIs than other nations. Since "Wealthy" equals five times the wealth of the "Average" wealth level, let's say that Germany has about five times more SAIs than its overall population would indicate, leaving us with three million SAIs - about 4% of the entire population. And this population is likely increasing quite rapidly, compared to the biosapient population.

Furthermore, while both the USA and Japan (and perhaps China) likely have more SAIs, neither grants them full legal citizenship status (although Japan comes closer than the USA). So Germany is indeed likely to have the largest number of citizen SAIs in the world.

Anything wrong with my math so far?

[lachimba]

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

Another issue which I am trying to figure out is the SAI population in Germany.

The SAI population is said to be "less than 100 million". Let's make that 90 million.

There are 11 billion people on Earth, with 72 million of them in Germany. If SAIs are divided proportionally among all nations, Germany would have around 600,000 SAIs.

But Germany has an average Wealth level of "Wealthy", and thus presumably can afford to create far more SAIs than other nations. Since "Wealthy" equals five times the wealth of the "Average" wealth level, let's say that Germany has about five times more SAIs than its overall population would indicate, leaving us with three million SAIs - about 4% of the entire population. And this population is likely increasing quite rapidly, compared to the biosapient population.

Furthermore, while both the USA and Japan (and perhaps China) likely have more SAIs, neither grants them full legal citizenship status (although Japan comes closer than the USA). So Germany is indeed likely to have the largest number of citizen SAIs in the world.

Anything wrong with my math so far?

Sounds right.


I had no idea it was so many. Well that would most probably be large enough number to have legitimate campaigns for enfranchisement and representation.

[Agemegos]

Originally Posted by jeff_wilson

But how do you know the person isn't a sophisticated sock puppet of some kind?

Why do you care? If a sock puppet can do heart surgery, give it a surgeon's licence.

[jalapeno_dude]

Originally Posted by Brett

Why do you care? If a sock puppet can do heart surgery, give it a surgeon's licence.

Sounds good in that particular example, but do you really want to extend it to voting? Or teaching your children? Or managing your company's accounts? These are all instances in which appropriate behavior only when you're paying attention isn't enough.

[Agemegos]

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

Anything wrong with my math so far?

If you apply it to all countries you will probably end up with a total different from your assumed total.

Take the country populations and multiply them by average wealth, and by country-specific factors for the legal situation of AIs. Sum those values, and divide by 90 million. Divide the population * wealth * friendliness factor of Germany by the quotient. That's your SAI population.

[Jürgen Hubert]

Originally Posted by Brett

If you apply it to all countries you will probably end up with a total different from your assumed total.

Take the country populations and multiply them by average wealth, and by country-specific factors for the legal situation of AIs. Sum those values, and divide by 90 million. Divide the population * wealth * friendliness factor of Germany by the quotient. That's your SAI population.

True, but I was lazy. ;)

Besides it has been stated that "average" wealth truly means the world average, so I felt justified by using the multiplier afterward. SAI legality doesn't really factor in, as long as SAIs aren't truly illegal - which isn't actually the case anywhere on Earth. If they are treated as animals or property it doesn't mean that there are any less of them around - just that they have fewer rights.

Thus, the wealth level of a nation is probably the best indicator of how prevalent SAIs are likely going to be - people in poor nations cannot afford to create that many, and furthermore they have less incentive to do so as pressure to give jobs to "normal people" will be much higher.

I am aware that this is a ballpark estimate, however. Some nations will have more than suggested by this calculation - Japan comes to mind, as they have a cultural bias towards strong automation even now, and are stated to have an even stronger bias in 2100. But we don't know any other factors about Germany yet, so "3 million" seems like a good working number.

[Agemegos]

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

Besides it has been stated that "average" wealth truly means the world average, so I felt justified by using the multiplier afterward.

You asked what was wrong with your maths.

[Phil Masters]

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

And this population is likely increasing quite rapidly, compared to the biosapient population.

This is an assumption that I'd question. Admittedly, human populations won't be growing fast (if at all) in most Fifth Wave nations - but anti-xoxing laws, strong licensing laws governing the creation of high-level AIs, and a tendency to bioconservatism, are all likely to restrict the rate of increase of the SAI population fairly strongly. New SAIs probably only get created when there's either a demonstrable need ("the new traffic management system in this town needs a full-sapient supervisor"), including when an existing SAI can demonstrate an emotional need to reproduce, or as occasional, closely monitored academic/industrial research projects.

[Jürgen Hubert]

Originally Posted by Phil Masters

This is an assumption that I'd question. Admittedly, human populations won't be growing fast (if at all) in most Fifth Wave nations - but anti-xoxing laws, strong licensing laws governing the creation of high-level AIs, and a tendency to bioconservatism, are all likely to restrict the rate of increase of the SAI population fairly strongly. New SAIs probably only get created when there's either a demonstrable need ("the new traffic management system in this town needs a full-sapient supervisor"), including when an existing SAI can demonstrate an emotional need to reproduce, or as occasional, closely monitored academic/industrial research projects.

Hmmm. But unlike ghosts, creation of SAIs is not listed as "restricted" in the EU - so those restrictions probably aren't that onerous. Certainly, three million SAIs is a lot.

Maybe the SAI population isn't growing very quickly now, but it was certainly growing quickly at some period in the past, or else it would not have reached those numbers. So, what happened? Certainly something worth thinking about...

[Phil Masters]

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

Maybe the SAI population isn't growing very quickly now, but it was certainly growing quickly at some period in the past, or else it would not have reached those numbers.

True. Even if we don't automatically accept the "3 million" number - I'd be slightly happier with something a bit closer to to the pro rata 600,000 - SAI creation can't have been very strongly restricted for the population to get well up into the tens of millions in 34 years.

Assuming that most SAIs are created for a pre-defined purpose - which will surely be the case in places where they're treated as property, even if the situation in places where they're citizens is more complex - then presumably, over the years, various organisations (and wealthy individuals) have decided that it's worth having something fully self-aware running certain tasks (and not just a dull-witted LAI or NAI with a huge capacity for number-crunching or data-sorting). Traffic management of all sorts, inventory/librarian work, large vehicle ops, secretarial/PA functions? I'm guessing that, despite a tendency for PC and published SAI characters to be very idiosyncratic, individualised characters, many are really optimised for whatever tasks SAIs are uniquely well-suited to.