[IW] Late arrival in New World?

[AlexanderHowl]

They were driven to extinction by TL0 humans after a series of climate disruptions severely limited their populations. By the 13th century, they would have recovered their populations and would have seen humans as perfect prey. A shipwrecked crew would have become a meal, not the masters of the New World, which is why you need a sustained colonization effort.

[Prince Charon]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

They were driven to extinction by TL0 humans after a series of climate disruptions severely limited their populations. By the 13th century, they would have recovered their populations and would have seen humans as perfect prey. A shipwrecked crew would have become a meal, not the masters of the New World, which is why you need a sustained colonization effort.

I mostly agree, but how long a shipwrecked crew would last depends on a lot of factors, including where they're shipwrecked (a decent-sized island without any large predators would be far safer than most of the mainland, for example).

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

They were driven to extinction by TL0 humans after a series of climate disruptions severely limited their populations. By the 13th century, they would have recovered their populations and would have seen humans as perfect prey. A shipwrecked crew would have become a meal, not the masters of the New World, which is why you need a sustained colonization effort.

Why would humans be perfect prey?

We're too small too be really worthwhile for a lot of the megafauna. Also unfamiliar, and while we might be soft-skinned, we carry pointy sticks and also know how to throw pointy sticks a long way. Also there's a fair bit of evidence that most animals think humans taste bad.

Now, taking humans opportunistically, that makes sense. "Perfect prey" doesn't.

[AlexanderHowl]

Megafauna is a scientific term that usually refers to animals of 40+ kg average mass, so humans are technically megafauna. Humans are the perfect lunch for a 200+ kg predator with no previous experience with them (children are perfect prey for smaller predators). We are slow, have no obvious weapons, and we are really poor night vision.

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Megafauna is a scientific term that usually refers to animals of 40+ kg average mass, so humans are technically megafauna. Humans are the perfect lunch for a 200+ kg predator with no previous experience with them (children are perfect prey for smaller predators). We are slow, have no obvious weapons, and we are really poor night vision.

Looking at things from the predators' perspectives, we're also unfamiliar and may smell like we don't taste very good, which doesn't scream "perfect prey." And, of course, I think most ships that could make it that far would have arms and people who know how to use them on board, which would give the humans a significant leg up at any TL. We also don't behave much like the herds they're used to culling - they may end up in a situation like this.

Now, if the humans don't have anyone who knows how to fight and hunt with them, they'll probably be easy pickings for the predators. However, in that case they probably don't have anyone who knows how to survive in the wilderness, and they'd be screwed anywhere that wasn't an idyllic paradise island, even without predators to worry about. If they land with enough people (and enough people with the right skills) to establish a small colony, they probably landed with enough people (and enough people with the right skills) to fight off the local megafauna. Of course, losing people and expending resources fighting off said megafauna may be why they end up unable to build new vessels (or repair their old one) and get back to where they came from, and thus ended up establishing a permanent settlement, isolated from their parent culture, that ends up becoming its own thing (possibly with some odd founder effects).

[ericthered]

Humans have monster slaying deeply ingrained in our psyche. When there are no giant beasts to slay, or it becomes too easy to kill them, we make up new ones to satisfy the urge. Most groups of humans who come across really big animals are going to slaughter them for food and safety. We're also quite capable of building fortifications and finding nice safe places. I suspect that a megafauna-infested new world is more welcoming to new-comers than one without it, because of the abundant food source.

That said, different groups will handle mega-fauna with different amounts of skill. The Polynesians will have a hard time figuring out how to deal with large land animals, while the Yupiks won't have any issue at all.

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by Rupert

Why would humans be perfect prey?

We're too small too be really worthwhile for a lot of the megafauna. Also unfamiliar, and while we might be soft-skinned, we carry pointy sticks and also know how to throw pointy sticks a long way. Also there's a fair bit of evidence that most animals think humans taste bad.

Now, taking humans opportunistically, that makes sense. "Perfect prey" doesn't.

Few predators go after unfamiliar big targets that might hurt them even when they aren't humans, and even unarmed humans certainly look big and strong enough to injure a predator. Sure some predators can reliably *win* those fights, but even a bit of injury is a big price to pay. Most things that attack humans are desperately starving enough they no longer have much to lose.

Wild animals can theoretically be a threat to individual humans - though in practice lethal attacks are incredibly rare even among animals that haven't seen much selection pressure against it - marine predators that haven't been heavily hunted still mostly don't bother divers - but they really aren't a credible threat to long term survival of substantial groups of humans.

[Flyndaran]

Haven't we all seen videos of some large animal like an alligator or black bear backing away from an aggressive house cat?

I could imagine it wouldn't take much of an experimental nature for a predator of primates to go after an unfamiliar species of primate. But of course, there are only a few small arboreal monkeys native to Mexico, and none further north.

[Phil Masters]

Originally Posted by malloyd

Wild animals can theoretically be a threat to individual humans - though in practice lethal attacks are incredibly rare even among animals that haven't seen much selection pressure against it - marine predators that haven't been heavily hunted still mostly don't bother divers - but they really aren't a credible threat to long term survival of substantial groups of humans.

Probably so; the original Ice Age settlement of the Americas was successful, and seems to have handled the megafauna well enough, after all. But note how we're segueing here from "random shipwreck" to "random shipwreck of something the (hypothesised) size of a Ming treasure ship" to "substantial group".

(I tend to assume that those Ice Age settlers were actually a series of waves of fairly substantial groups who were already well adapted to sub-Arctic environments, enabling them to get well established before they started expanding south into more temperate zones, in significant numbers. Dunno off-hand what genetics suggests about founder group sizes.)

I can believe all sorts of settlement patterns in an unoccupied Americas if the initial numbers are large enough, probably meaning continuing support from a larger society behind them. Random shipwrecks, I find less convincing. If the sabretooths don't get them, the inbreeding will.

[Phantasm]

Originally Posted by Phil Masters

Random shipwrecks, I find less convincing. If the sabretooths don't get them, the inbreeding will.

Assuming there were women in the ships to begin with! Vikings and Polynesians appear to be the exceptions rather than the rule among ancient seafaring peoples, with women sailors.