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Old 07-10-2020, 07:59 AM   #1
thrash
 
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Default [IW] Late arrival in New World?

Is there an established timeline where the Beringia land bridge was not crossed during the last glacial?

A paper in this week's Nature described pre-historic contacts between Polynesia and South/Central America (c. AD 1150-1250), based on genetic evidence. It occurs to me that the various real and hypothetical pre-Columbian contacts with the New World -- Egyptians, Phoenicians, Romans, Celts, Vikings, Chinese/Japanese, Polynesians, etc. -- would have gone very differently if they didn't encounter existing, long-established Native American populations.

Small founder groups (e.g., a single shipwreck) could persist without being absorbed and disappearing, as long as they included women. Deliberate colonization attempts would not run afoul of better-established locals (e.g, Vinland and the Skraelings), but would also encounter true virgin wilderness rather than a human-adapted ecosystem depopulated by disease. Similarly, the Columbian exchange would not include previously domesticated species, but also no human-specific pathogens. Some Pleistocene megafauna might persist, with interesting adventuring possibilities.

The result could be a patchwork of a variety of cultural groups and odd survivals interacting with one another in ways very different from OTL: Yrth without the Banestorm.
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Old 07-10-2020, 12:15 PM   #2
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

I think you have a number of groups that get there well before the Spanish:

1) The vikings, of course. Around 1000 AD
2) The Polynesians. There is an off again, on again debate as to if they made it to the new world. I suspect they did make it in one form or another. They would have made it fairly late in history though: possibly the vikings will beat them there.
3) Yupiks from Siberia. They have a fairly aquatic lifestyle, and linguistically there are not thousands of years of separation between them and their counterparts across the strait. I think you have to do more if you want to really close down humans in the new world.

Any of these groups could be fun to work with. Sticking all three on the same continent could make for some fun geo-politics if you want to work it all out.
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Old 07-10-2020, 02:39 PM   #3
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

There were a couple of Atlantic expedition during the 14th century by the Mali Empire that may have made it (the Portuguese documented a radically different tribe than the rest in Brazil during the 17th century, which could have been the descendants of such an expedition). If the Mali expeditions had developed slightly better technology, they may have been able to make it to Brazil and back, allowing trade and the exchange of ideas (and diseases).

With an extra 150 years of Old World diseases ripping through the Americas through the trade networks, the European may have had a nasty shock when they got to the Caribbean. The Arawaks and Carib may have already recovered from the plagues and may have already reached TL3. At least from what we can gather, the Amazonian civilization traded with the Caribbean and the Andean civilizations, which in turn traded with the North American and Mesoamerican civilizations, meaning that ideas like iron-working could have spread like wildfire.

An additional unpleasant surprise to the Europeans would have been the spread of Islam to the Americas before the spread of Christianity. While Islam probably would not have become the dominant religion in just 150 years of trade, it would have been a fierce competitor for Christianity. In addition, trade with the Americas may have made Mali stronger and wealthier, which might have prevented the Portuguese and the Spanish from developing their African trade during the 15th century.
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:37 PM   #4
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ericthered View Post
2) The Polynesians. There is an off again, on again debate as to if they made it to the new world. I suspect they did make it in one form or another. They would have made it fairly late in history though: possibly the vikings will beat them there.
The paper I linked above establishes that there was contact between Polynesia (specifically the Marquesas) and Central/South America in c. 1150-1250. This is likely early enough to let the Polynesians to get well ashore before running into the Scandinavians, especially since the because they are on opposite shores.

Quote:
3) Yupiks from Siberia. They have a fairly aquatic lifestyle, and linguistically there are not thousands of years of separation between them and their counterparts across the strait. I think you have to do more if you want to really close down humans in the new world.
As best I can tell, the Inuit arrived in the New World from Asia also around AD 1000. I would expect them to spread pretty much the same way they did in OTL, but with fewer limits due to lack of competition. By the time they reach the Atlantic coast and environs, however, the Scandinavians would already be established farther south.

There are historical examples of Japanese ships carried across the north Pacific to North America in the 1800's. I am making the case that this could have happened with Chinese or Japanese ships in the pre-Columbian era as well, but we might not know it if they were absorbed into local populations. Without existing native groups, we might have permanent communities grow from shipwrecked survivors. It's a bit of a stretch, but I think it then more interesting if the lack of an existing culture to land in provides enough additional incentive for some of these to make their way back to Asia and establish two-way links.

An open question would be the contact line between Inuit moving south from Alaska and Chinese moving north from the Columbia/Snake River basin.

More importantly, it is not clear what effect an active (if sporadic) North Atlantic trade between Scandinavia and Vinland would have on Southern European exploration, once they develop the technology for deep ocean voyages. I suspect that Henry the Navigator and the Portuguese would turn southwest rather than (or in addition to) passing the Bay of Benin to the southeast, and wind up in Brazil. By they time they worked their way back to the Windward Islands, they would encounter Polynesians in agile, ocean-going catamarans.

I'm envisioning a five-way (Polynesian, Inuit, Scandinavian, Chinese/Japanese, Portuguese) scramble for the New World c. AD 1500, with occasional lost Egyptian or Phoenician ruins in the jungle for variety.
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:40 PM   #5
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
There were a couple of Atlantic expedition during the 14th century by the Mali Empire that may have made it (the Portuguese documented a radically different tribe than the rest in Brazil during the 17th century, which could have been the descendants of such an expedition). If the Mali expeditions had developed slightly better technology, they may have been able to make it to Brazil and back, allowing trade and the exchange of ideas (and diseases).
That's interesting. I'll have to look into it more. No diseases, though -- this alternate has no native humans in the New World to harbor them.
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:51 PM   #6
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

The first realistic problem with a shipwreck crew (with several fertile women included) founding a colony in an unoccupied new world is that you’ve got a painfully skimpy genetic base. I’m not sure they could survive. Too much functional inbreeding.

The second... interesting issue and possible problem is the native megafauna which haven’t been wiped out by prior human colonisation.
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Old 07-10-2020, 04:20 PM   #7
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Masters View Post
The first realistic problem with a shipwreck crew (with several fertile women included) founding a colony in an unoccupied new world is that you’ve got a painfully skimpy genetic base. I’m not sure they could survive. Too much functional inbreeding.
I'm thinking more in terms of a dis-masted Ming treasure ship with 400-500 people aboard than a fishing boat, though there might be a few of those, too. From a narrative standpoint, a shipwreck is just to establish a beachead that draws the interest of the home country.

Quote:
The second... interesting issue and possible problem is the native megafauna which haven’t been wiped out by prior human colonisation.
Ayup. I mentioned that in the first post. Based on what we know about them, do you think there is a threat right at the coast or only farther inland?
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Old 07-10-2020, 05:34 PM   #8
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ericthered View Post
I think you have a number of groups that get there well before the Spanish:

1) The vikings, of course. Around 1000 AD
2) The Polynesians. There is an off again, on again debate as to if they made it to the new world. I suspect they did make it in one form or another. They would have made it fairly late in history though: possibly the vikings will beat them there.
3) Yupiks from Siberia. They have a fairly aquatic lifestyle, and linguistically there are not thousands of years of separation between them and their counterparts across the strait. I think you have to do more if you want to really close down humans in the new world.

Any of these groups could be fun to work with. Sticking all three on the same continent could make for some fun geo-politics if you want to work it all out.

In my archaeology class it was pointed out there was no land bridge all the way to Australia when humans arrived there between 50,000 and 65,000 years ago which is much earlier then the long chronology theory which sets the first migration to America at around 40,000. For this to happen it means humans has to have decent water craft c 65,000 years ago.

The short chronology theory is older theory and is the one with the 19,000 years ago date.
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Old 07-10-2020, 07:03 PM   #9
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The megafauna of the continents was no joke. In North America, American lions were larger than tigers and short-faced bears weighed a ton. In South America, you had birds large enough to hunt humans, aa well as mammalian predators.
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Old 07-10-2020, 07:26 PM   #10
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Default Re: [IW] Late arrival in New World?

If they can be driven to extinction by TL0 hunters, they're probably not going to be an existential threat for TL3 or TL4 colonizers. Good for adventurers, though.
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