[MH] Caribbean by Night

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by Varyon

Given the revised time tables, I think the only thing that really changes about my response is that I'd be much less likely to send anything - and certainly wouldn't send anything of serious importance - via the Aqueronte. Having to wait around for the ship to offload is just asking for trouble. As you note, extra energy sources are the only thing I really see being sent that route. That, or maybe some tools that were inferior even to the second-rate ones I was using back at home while my best were being smuggled over, simply as backup in case everything else was compromised.

Oh, every route would have some basic ritual necessities sent, simply as redundant emergency supplies.

Originally Posted by Varyon

I had considered lead, but dismissed it as you've mentioned elsewhere that it's more magically inert than anti-magic (while iron is largely the latter). Still, good to know there are options.

Very thick lead-lined steel boxes are quite effective. Like lead-line storage safes, for example.

On the other hand, not perhaps the most convenient containers for shipping by air. At minimum, pretty damn expensive to ship when you're paying by the pound.

Originally Posted by Varyon

If would be humorous if some of the more powerful cultists were in lead-lined coffins for the trip over.

If they are still living, they need to breathe, which rather puts a damper on the whole lead-lined box thing. That being said, the PCs actually have encountered lead-lined boxes that look very much like coffins, which must perforce be used to transport something...

Originally Posted by Varyon

I figured it would be something like that. So, yeah, make high-quality Charms both for the ritual and for the ~6 weeks you'll be without your best gear. Send the Charms you intend to use in the States along with your best gear, unless you're confident you can safely transport them yourself, and keep the rest with you. Any personal-use ones that you still have by the time you fly out, either bring them with you (if practical) or spend/discard them (to make "room" for more Conditionals, in case you need them in the States).

That all sounds good.

And, obviously, if you're going to perform a ritual that you believe will end the world as it now exists, you expect to need everything you can possibly muster. Because if you don't use it, what good is it to you afterwards?

[Icelander]

I'll probably have to introduce the six Hunters of Kessler's New Orleans team in the next session.

I'd have to check my notes, as it's possible that there is some throwaway reference to a relative of an old friend of Kessler that leads the New Orleans team. In any case, the team leader will be someone with long-standing ties to people in Kessler's inner circle.

However, I haven't decided much, if anything, about the other five Hunters. Odds are that they'll be US citizens*, very likely with a military background (though a police background is possible) and highly competent. All of them obviously lack Mundane Background, but Magery or other supernatural abilities are rare. Some of them are people who learned about the paranormal somehow and some were approached by people in Kessler's network because of their exceptional abilities, strong Will and right mindset.

Kessler's network employs as informants and support people all sorts of 'ordinary' people who've learned about the occult; cops, journalists, academics, social workers, emergency personnel and so on. Those people, however, are not the 'Night Riders'. None of them are in any way 'ordinary', except in the sense that Navy SEALs, Green Berets or police hostage rescuers can be 'ordinary'. The 'Night Riders' have jobs as hazardous, complex and challenging as CIA's Special Activities Division and tend to be exceptionally competent, resourceful and strong-willed people with a background from elite military units.

In general, most 'Night Riders' are approached and offered their jobs on the basis of a recommendation from someone trusted by Kessler's inner circle, often someone who served with them. The early 'Night Riders', who informally came into being at the end of the 1980s, were friends and family of Kessler's old comrades in arms from the French Foreign Legion and some of the 'security contractors' (mercenaries) that Kessler had employed in his various African business ventures (oil, mining, etc.). In the 2000s, fewer of the newer recruits have had any ties to security work in Africa and more of them are veterans of the US military.

I imagine that desirable motivations are generally some extension of motivations perceived as positive in elite military units, i.e. some variety of patriotism (defend my country) or sense of duty to others (defend those who can't defend themselves), especially as an excellent case can be made that 'monsters', or the supernatural in general, are a far greater threat to the United States, modern civilization and the world as a whole than any terrorist organization or rogue state.

By some estimates in the campaign setting, 15,000+ people are killed in the US every year as a result of occult influences, dark spirits, rogue magicians and predatory supernatural entities. The most pessimistic estimates even posit that the real number might be twice that, as many 'missing persons' who are never found might have fallen prey to supernatural predators.

That being said, perfectly pure motives are not required, as long as the prospective candidate impresses some very shrewd judges of characters as having the right mental fortitude and resiliance to survive stress and psychological trauma that would shatter lesser minds. Some 'Night Riders' are motivated, at least partly, by a sense of adventure, a need to continually prove themselves against the toughest challenges they find or even a desire for vengeance.

And when he finds a rare qualified candidate, Kessler tries his best to make the offer as appealing as possible. 'Night Riders' are employed in some kind of cover jobs, often with security companies associated with Kessler's holdings somewhere, and tend to get various consulting contracts to raise their income. Their yearly salaries start at $150,000, with active Hunters who get a lot of hazard pay often averaging $300,000. And they get excellent benefits, have access to the best toys and can easily arrange for comfortable quarters for a nominal fee (or free) if they are willing to live around some secure location (where their presence serves as extra, unofficial security).

Would forumites like to suggest some ideas for characters, backgrounds or names for these five 'Night Riders' (Monster Hunters)?

*And I want at least four out of these six to be American in origin as well. Not that Kessler recruits with any specific prejudice... well, that's untrue, in that he is somewhat prejudiced against Yankees and West Coast people, but not perhaps to the point of turning them away. Still, there is a noticable bias among Kessler's people toward Southerners and former Legionaires, as well as a concentrated effort in recent years to recruit people with the appropriate linguistic and cultural familiaries for the Caribbean. However, I specifically want the New Orleans team to be majority American, because I feel that the demographics among those 'Night Riders' I have detailed skew somewhat too much toward exotic origins for an organization that is supposed to be mostly American.

[Icelander]

The cultists of the Keepers of the Last Hearth are led by fanatics, but those are actually quite bright fanatics, some of whom are usually quite sensible about other things than their obsessive pursuit of destroying an imperfect world.

After the PCs started interfering with their plans, the world-ending ritual that these cultists are planning has gotten progressively more difficult to perform. Changing the location will give a penalty, being without the prophecised initiator for the ritual will undoubtedly give a huge penalty and having to improvise sacrifices will also reduce their odds significantly.

Even if we assume that the cultists (delusionally or not) believed that their original odds were 100%, a sane appraisal of their odds made at evening on the 29th of December, 2018, is that they have less than 10% odds of even managing to enact any kind of powerful ritual, with much, much less than 0.1% odds of actual success.

By contrast, deciding to wait and perform the ritual at a different time, different place and perhaps after having reacquired the Prophecised One could increase the odds by a couple of orders of magnitude, at the cost of having to wait a year, couple of years or maybe a decade or so.

What should a character with Obsession roll against to re-evaluate their odds and decide to wait?

Self-Control and then, if they succeed, against IQ or applicable skills?

IQ or applicable skills with a penalty for Obsession and other applicable Disadvantages?

Will, with the same modifiers?

Something else?

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by Icelander

What should a character with Obsession roll against to re-evaluate their odds and decide to wait?

This can depend on exactly what the Obsession is. Are they Obsessed with the end result, making the attempt, or something else? Are the various groups united on this issue?

If with the end result, then while they'll be annoyed at the delay, delaying doesn't really require any kind of self-control roll. An Obsession self-control roll is required for doing something that doesn't contribute towards the goal, and a tactical delay that makes success much more likely is contributing.

If they're obsessed with making an attempt, then definitely self-control.

If they're obsessed with doing it at a specific place and/or time, they may be entirely unwilling to delay.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by johndallman

This can depend on exactly what the Obsession is. Are they Obsessed with the end result, making the attempt, or something else? Are the various groups united on this issue?

If with the end result, then while they'll be annoyed at the delay, delaying doesn't really require any kind of self-control roll. An Obsession self-control roll is required for doing something that doesn't contribute towards the goal, and a tactical delay that makes success much more likely is contributing.

If they're obsessed with making an attempt, then definitely self-control.

If they're obsessed with doing it at a specific place and/or time, they may be entirely unwilling to delay.

Obsessed with the end result, but in the case of Sister María Teresa (the driving force behind not abandoning the attempt at the first or second setback), she's also been established as having been convinced through signs, portents and predictions that this time is the right time.

Giving up requires her to accept and admit having been very, very wrong, something which is more unthinkable to a lot of people than the thought of ceremonial human sacrifice.

As she's also abandoned the careful habits of a lifetime for the past few months, the thought is even more abominable, as she can foresee that she might be in grave danger even if she abandons this attempt, given that she's no doubt left a trail of breadcrumbs for authorities and opposing occult power-groups, as she's been so convinced that there is no need to plan for events after the Rapture (equivalent).

Potential bonuses to her roll are that two of the other five leaders who are with her privately have significant reservations about the ad hoc plan they are currently embarked upon. And those are the two of her fellow higher-ups she's most inclined to listen to on practical matters.

Out of the other three, one she regards as an inhuman savage unworthy of attention and one as an inconsequential airhead born with awesome power for incomprehensible reasons. So that's two votes for 'ay' she's inclined to disregard out of hand. However, unless Sister María Teresa changes her mind, the 'ayes' still have it, and even if we discount her, the majority of the most influential cultists are currently supporting continuing.

The tie-breaker is the last of the leaders, an unworldly indigenous magician from a very rural part of Peru, whose English non-existent and whose Spanish is only Accented. He is very wise, no doubt, but Sister María Teresa has to acknowledge that he's also deeply delusional and believes that he is a high priest of the Inca Empire.

So, if she evaluates the viewpoints of her fellow cultists rationally, she can see that the only people who support continuing are naive, completely ignorant of conditions in the US or completely insane. Except for those who are all three, of course.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by Icelander

. . . she's also been established as having been convinced through signs, portents and predictions that this time is the right time.

The one and only right time, or just one of a number of advantageous times?

The "one and only" implies that trying to find and capture/kill whoever is messing things up is worth considering.

[Varyon]

I'd be tempted to roll for Self Control, and on a success she gets a roughly accurate estimate (based on how well she does on relevant "knowledge" rolls) of how likely the ritual is to succeed, how likely it is to suffer a terminal failure (that is, a failure that will make her unable to ever attempt again, say by cheerfully painting Indianola with her entrails), and how likely it is that opting to wait will prevent her from ever being able to attempt the ritual (say, due to being arrested, assassinated, or effectively barred from entering the US and any extradition country ever again). If she fails on the Self Control roll, she'll still get to make her knowledge rolls, but she will markedly overestimate the chance of success, underestimate the chance of a terminal failure, and overestimate the chance that waiting will prevent her from making another attempt.

She could also save face (and justify things to herself) by stating that, while she was indeed correct that now is the absolute best time for the ritual, the fact they have no access to important aspects of it (Galveston Killing Fields, appropriate sacrifices, the Girl with the Kaleidoscope Eyes, etc) mean they will be forced to try at a less-optimal time. Going with the 100% chance she thought they had with everything in place, perhaps the second-best time (but with everything again in place) has a 90% chance. She wasn't wrong, but events beyond her control changed things enough that her initial assessment could not longer apply. It's like if someone asks you how much volume of water is in a glass, and then after you answer someone takes a gulp of it before it gets measured - your initial estimate may well be correct, but by the time you got a chance to test it some of the water was gone.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by johndallman

The one and only right time, or just one of a number of advantageous times?

Emotionally, the one and only, though she's intellectually aware that others have proposed a number of alternate times and places, each of which could be equally good.

Essentially, she has a religious attachment to a certain interpretation of prophecy that others interpret differently. However, the more the original plan becomes impossible, the less sense her interpretation makes, if she can be even remotely objective.

At a certain point, you have to accept an endless run of bad luck as some kind of sign.

Originally Posted by johndallman

The "one and only" implies that trying to find and capture/kill whoever is messing things up is worth considering.

Well, she thought about it, of course.

Magic can find the person of prophecy she needs, but she's aware that she's under arrest somewhere, probably surrounded by cops, and also watched by occultists unfriendly to the cult. And the kind of people she'd need for any kind of rescue attempt (people familiar with modern Texas, law enforcement and technology) are mostly dead, captured or fleeing.

Also, even if she somehow manages a rescue and then follows up by killing all the annoying occultists interfering with her plan, how would she escape police pursuit? She'd be removing a prisoner from a jail or the equivalent, on an island she doesn't know, with only one effective way off the island. While most of law enforcement in Texas is carrying out a massive investigation and manhunt that started on the route that is the only way off the island.

The main reason that the cultists abandoned their first choice of ritual space is because it's literally crawling with cops looking for suspects that might have escaped from the scene of the first ambush. Even a couple of days later, chances are that there will still be crime scene technicians around it. And there will definitely be hundreds of extra police on Galveston, just because of the investigation.

Sister María Teresa will underestimate the US law enforcement, both their technological capability, their funding and their professionalism, because of an unconscious bias caused by her experience of corrupt Colombian cops. But she won't underestimate them so badly that she doesn't expect there to be a lot of armed and dangerous police guarding the very person she wants to rescue.

Just killing the PCs wouldn't really help her cause, at least not in her mind. It would be a pointless and emotional act of petty revenge, on some interfering occultists who don't even know what they interrupted and who no longer pose any particular risk to the ritual after they moved it.

There are other voices that loudly insist that the yacht Penemue should nevertheless be blown up, sunk or otherwise destroyed, but the fact that this would require the cultists to be on Galveston island pretty much makes it a non-starter. The more sensible of them know that if anything dramatic happens on Galveston and the police even suspect terrorism, the island will be closed down within minutes and they won't be able to escape.

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by Icelander

At a certain point, you have to accept an endless run of bad luck as some kind of sign.

Depending on exactly how her new "faith" works, it could be a sign that God (whom she despises, if He exists) is really opposed and is trying to stop her from trying, because He knows she'll succeed and destroy the creation He gets some sadistic pleasure out of watching over the suffering of. Alternatively, it could be a "test" of some sort to see if she has the mental and emotional fortitude to go through all of this without losing sight of her goal, the Book of Job comes to mind. The latter version only works if her "faith" allows for supernatural entities that are in favor of the ritual yet have the power and inclination to test her in such a way. The "God is a jerk and wants to stop me" version is probably easier, particularly as she can replace "God" with any number of supernatural entities that would be opposed to the ritual. In her mind, it could well be that the ritual is nearly guaranteed to succeed, even with incredibly suboptimal conditions, so those opposed to it are going all-out trying to stop her from even attempting it. Hell, the incredible opposition itself is something she might think of as "evidence" that she's on the right path.

At least, that's the interpretation I'd go with if the dice indicate she misestimates the odds badly enough that she feels going for it is still a good idea.

Originally Posted by Icelander

There are other voices that loudly insist that the yacht Penemue should nevertheless be blown up, sunk or otherwise destroyed, but the fact that this would require the cultists to be on Galveston island pretty much makes it a non-starter. The more sensible of them know that if anything dramatic happens on Galveston and the police even suspect terrorism, the island will be closed down within minutes and they won't be able to escape.

There's also the fact that such actions are completely needless if the ritual succeeds - the Unmaking of All Things (or whatever they call their Heat-Death Rapture*) would, by definition, involve the destruction of the Penemue, and in a far more complete and final way than a mere explosive device (or whatever they ended up using in a likely-repelled-by-PC's attack)

*That wouldn't be a terrible band name, come to think of it, although Lords of the Last Waste might be better.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by Varyon

Depending on exactly how her new "faith" works, it could be a sign that God (whom she despises, if He exists) is really opposed and is trying to stop her from trying, because He knows she'll succeed and destroy the creation He gets some sadistic pleasure out of watching over the suffering of. Alternatively, it could be a "test" of some sort to see if she has the mental and emotional fortitude to go through all of this without losing sight of her goal, the Book of Job comes to mind. The latter version only works if her "faith" allows for supernatural entities that are in favor of the ritual yet have the power and inclination to test her in such a way. The "God is a jerk and wants to stop me" version is probably easier, particularly as she can replace "God" with any number of supernatural entities that would be opposed to the ritual. In her mind, it could well be that the ritual is nearly guaranteed to succeed, even with incredibly suboptimal conditions, so those opposed to it are going all-out trying to stop her from even attempting it. Hell, the incredible opposition itself is something she might think of as "evidence" that she's on the right path.

At least, that's the interpretation I'd go with if the dice indicate she misestimates the odds badly enough that she feels going for it is still a good idea.

This is, in fact, how I imagine her justifying the clearly insane choice of continuing with her hopeless task.

She doesn't believe in benevolent divine entities. The world, to her, is evidence against any being that is both benevolent and powerful enough to rate the description 'divine'. She acknowledges to herself that the Lords of the Last Waste are not morally superior to any other force, simply that their ultimate goals are honest enough, not to mention congenial to her.

Her problem is that while she considers herself an atheist, she is capable of great intensity of religious feeling. In place of her lost faith, there is hatred, and her rationality wars with her desire to know the truth. Any truth, even if she has to force a certainty that doesn't exist for prophecy. She tells herself that she is merely very confident in the thaumic calculations and the preparations that lie behind this ritual, but really, she's dangerously close to viewing the Prophecy as revealed truth.

And, of course, the endless parade of misfortunate indicates that Someone really doesn't want them to succeed. Which, yes, might only strengthen her certainty. If she allows herself to surrender to magical thinking, which, ironically for a cultist and ritual magician, would be a betrayal of who she's been all her life.

Originally Posted by Varyon

There's also the fact that such actions are completely needless if the ritual succeeds - the Unmaking of All Things (or whatever they call their Heat-Death Rapture*) would, by definition, involve the destruction of the Penemue, and in a far more complete and final way than a mere explosive device (or whatever they ended up using in a likely-repelled-by-PC's attack)

*That wouldn't be a terrible band name, come to think of it, although Lords of the Last Waste might be better.

Just so.

Anger, vengeance, retribution, these are all petty and pointless motivations. Either there is no one truly worth getting upset about, only fellow victims of cruel chaos, caught in the same trap, or there is Someone behind it all, which makes Him the only being truly deserving of retribution.