Alternate History Idea - Hitler dies in early 1936 - then what?

[adm]

Originally Posted by BraselC5048

The Soviets might decide to do a landgrab of the Baltic States (nobody is willing to fight over that), and invade and are humiliated in Finland right about on schedule. If anything, this drives a wedge between the British/French and the Soviets. When war finally does break out, with Stalin's objective being the spread of communism, he might well invade Poland himself, potentially with little intention of stopping at the German border.

Keep in mind that until the Munich Crisis, the U.S.S.R. was considered to be the dangerous one. Britain's early tolerance of Hitler and the NAZIs was because they wanted an Ally against Stalin.

Originally Posted by BraselC5048

Goering and Stalin just doesn't have the same feel as Hitler and Stalin.

Honestly if you eliminate only one of the Hitler/Stalin pair, the other will most likely profit from it.

[Michele]

Originally Posted by adm

Honestly if you eliminate only one of the Hitler/Stalin pair, the other will most likely profit from it.

Hmmm. I'm not so sure. As you pointed out, the Soviet Union was seen as the most dangerous threat. If a staunch anti-Communist, but not frothing-at-the-mouth rabidly aggressive strongman led Germany, then there would be no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. And the Soviet Union would not be provided external support and cover for its expansion in the 1939-1940 time frame.

As to the further Soviet expansion that came at the end of the real-history war, whether that would happen in this alternate timeline is anybody's guess.

[exalted]

The soviets will take no action until after 41 which is after the purges in the army and related industries that make Stalin feel safe and happy with the ideas of his officers. They may of course become accelerated as the great purge has been going on for a good while by then.

After those purges the Red Army is not capable of meaningful offencive warfare against one of the great powers (or even anyone as the winter war shows) for at least two years without the help of vast areas to retreat over, poor communications, poor railroads which give time to rebuild and reorganize.

As such any attack before at earlierst 43-44 is likely to be a series of disasters especially under harsh conditions such as in asia. Unless Stalin gets a wake up call.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by exalted

The soviets will take no action until after 41 which is after the purges in the army and related industries that make Stalin feel safe and happy with the ideas of his officers. They may of course become accelerated as the great purge has been going on for a good while by then.

After those purges the Red Army is not capable of meaningful offencive warfare against one of the great powers (or even anyone as the winter war shows) for at least two years without the help of vast areas to retreat over, poor communications, poor railroads which give time to rebuild and reorganize.

Not only will the purges hinder the Bolsheviks, but they didn't ramp up industrial capacity for war until after Munich. While the shoring up of the industrial base and the economy was the great success of Stalin, it didn't happen overnight, and it needed a reason.

The Bolshies might have been able to put up a fight against an invader, however. Their military model was always based on having more boots on the ground than anyone else, which makes some sense considering that the Soviet Union had a big population and started out with next to no industrial capacity (the Romanovs never put much into it, and after two years of fighting Germany, it was depleted). But there's no way the Soviets could take back Eastern Europe or move into the Balkans with the forces they had in 1936, and even with a clear threat, they still needed American aid.

[adm]

If there is a more united Europe, Stalin may not be so quick to purge the military.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Michele

Hmmm. I'm not so sure. As you pointed out, the Soviet Union was seen as the most dangerous threat. If a staunch anti-Communist, but not frothing-at-the-mouth rabidly aggressive strongman led Germany, then there would be no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. And the Soviet Union would not be provided external support and cover for its expansion in the 1939-1940 time frame.

As to the further Soviet expansion that came at the end of the real-history war, whether that would happen in this alternate timeline is anybody's guess.

The most notable foreign policy factor(ignoring his "eccentric" domestic policies that is) about Hitler was his willingness to actually begin another Great Power war at a time when almost all nations in Europe were shell-shocked and almost all rulers had spent time in the trenches themselves. An alternative dictator would have done the irredentism and the millitary rebuilding but would probably have been more interested in a containment policy then a direct attack on Russia.

[gruundehn]

Originally Posted by exalted

The soviets will take no action until after 41 which is after the purges in the army and related industries that make Stalin feel safe and happy with the ideas of his officers. They may of course become accelerated as the great purge has been going on for a good while by then.

After those purges the Red Army is not capable of meaningful offencive warfare against one of the great powers (or even anyone as the winter war shows) for at least two years without the help of vast areas to retreat over, poor communications, poor railroads which give time to rebuild and reorganize.

As such any attack before at earlierst 43-44 is likely to be a series of disasters especially under harsh conditions such as in asia. Unless Stalin gets a wake up call.

Bear in mind that the purges were based upon contact with the Germans and might not have happened. Granted that is a low probability given Stalin's paranoia but it is possible. Also remember that the Soviet cavalry arm was hit least hardest in reality so it is possible that if different victims were chosen at the start one or more of the other arms could have deflected the purge from themselves. So the purges could have been less extensive and Stalin might even have been overthrown, which was the real reason behind the purges - Stalin's fear of the military taking power away from him.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by gruundehn

Bear in mind that the purges were based upon contact with the Germans and might not have happened. Granted that is a low probability given Stalin's paranoia but it is possible. Also remember that the Soviet cavalry arm was hit least hardest in reality so it is possible that if different victims were chosen at the start one or more of the other arms could have deflected the purge from themselves. So the purges could have been less extensive and Stalin might even have been overthrown, which was the real reason behind the purges - Stalin's fear of the military taking power away from him.

Really? You would think he would be paranoid about such a traditional arm being polluted by the Old Regime. Of course a lot of the most fanatical communists were cavalry but ideological purity didn't really stop his purges any more then probable military effectiveness.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by BraselC5048

And the Heer. Who actually has the combat troops and answer only to the German General Staff, who actually took effective power during WW1, and who flatly told the German Republic in 1919 that Bolshevik reforms were not allowed. (They didn't want it anyway.)

Most likely the General Staff throws it's support behind Goering, with variable levels of actual power given to him.

There was still supporters of the monarchy after WWII. If the General Staff wants the Kaiser (and the other monarchies, if they want) back as figureheads, with Goering as chancellor holding the real power, Goering will object, but it's amazing what the power the guys with lots of guys with the guns can wield if they want to, and he'll likely have no choice but to go along with it. The last Kaiser is still alive, by the way, although you might want a different candidate. Not as likely. When it comes to the monarchy being the real power, that ship had sailed from Europe two decades earlier.

Did Goering share Hitler's "living space" objectives? If not, then Poland's off the hook. The Heer wants to "right the wrongs done the their fathers in 1919," make Germany a major world power, and ultimately win a war with Britain and France. Goering's objectives will be slightly different, likely, then than Heer's, and it's a good question as to who would actually hold the real power. Likely not as focused on eastern expansion, support for recovering Germany's 1914 borders, (with/without what's now Poland), including in the Balkans, and a refight in the west. Britain and France might not even oppose putting all German-speakers in Germany, it's not actually that bad of a thing, and certainly won't go to war over it.

The Navy was told to be ready for war in 1945; the British simply have no choice but to embark on a massive battleship building program, they simply have to have naval superiority in the North Sea at all costs, as that's what the security of their country ultimately depends on.

War will break out, eventually. Possibly Germany invades some countries out of order. Apparently the Nazi's had some weird Norse fascination, and I changed geography to put a mysterious country high in the (bigger than in real life) mountains between Norway and Sweden that's closed to outsiders for another reason, and they might well try to invade that (and Norway in the process). It won't go well.

The Soviets might decide to do a landgrab of the Baltic States (nobody is willing to fight over that), and invade and are humiliated in Finland right about on schedule. If anything, this drives a wedge between the British/French and the Soviets. When war finally does break out, with Stalin's objective being the spread of communism, he might well invade Poland himself, potentially with little intention of stopping at the German border.

What the heck happens then is anybody's guess. The Germans can stop them if they're not busy in France, Poland just wants its country back when it's all over, and neither Britain nor France want the Soviets to beat Germany. Would the Germans stop an attempt to land British troops at Poland in Danzig? They don't control the entrance to the Baltic anyway, but they might consider it a good thing. Three way wars - never seem to happen historically.


Back to the original starting point, basically a way to keep war from breaking out for another decade, while letting technology and society be exactly what I want it to be in the meantime. Although it's not quite the same, somehow, Nazi's just have to have Hitler, otherwise it just doesn't feel right. Goering and Stalin just doesn't have the same feel as Hitler and Stalin.

Soviet Russia had not had conspicuous good fortune invading Poland on it's own account before.

[gruundehn]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

Really? You would think he would be paranoid about such a traditional arm being polluted by the Old Regime. Of course a lot of the most fanatical communists were cavalry but ideological purity didn't really stop his purges any more then probable military effectiveness.

A lot of the purges happened because someone denounced someone else, often the result of torture. The cavalry arm tended to stick together, plus they had little contact with the Germans, so few of them were initially denounced and thus few of them were tortured into denouncing others.