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Old 07-14-2009, 10:56 AM   #11
SuedodeuS
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crakkerjakk View Post
I think this is a flawed assumption. To kill someone with a sword, you have to stick it in them. In modern urban combat, you're spraying bullets towards where you think the enemy is. He may or may not be there, but your bullets are going to keep moving till they hit something. Punching through to the next house and shredding a family is easily attainable for most medium machine guns and up and many assault rifles.
Indeed. Accidental civilian deaths are likely to go up with TL. Purposeful civilian deaths are more a factor of culture/purpose than TL. So, an equation for calculating it would likely have 3 variables - mission, temperament, and TL. Mission is basically the RoE - if they are "shoot anyone you see," civilian deaths are going to be much higher than if it's "shoot anyone with a weapon." Temperament refers to the way the soldiers think - are they the type to purposefully avoid civilian casualties, purposefully pursue civilian casualties, or somewhere in between? TL simply represents the types of weaponry used - the more advanced, the more likely civilian casualties are (unless you've reached the point of "smart" weapons, which would probably decrease civilian casualties).
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:57 AM   #12
Mi-Go
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crakkerjakk View Post
I think this is a flawed assumption. To kill someone with a sword, you have to stick it in them. In modern urban combat, you're spraying bullets towards where you think the enemy is. He may or may not be there, but your bullets are going to keep moving till they hit something. Punching through to the next house and shredding a family is easily attainable for most medium machine guns and up and many assault rifles.
I base this on looking over the statistics for historical conflicts. The number of combatants used in a war decreases with increases in technology. The specific technology has a much higher damage potential, as you allude to, but the damage potential is better focused. As TL increases other things like politics begin to have ever increasing amounts of influence over what is acceptable in war, a society is typically more "civil" as it becomes more advanced and will tolerate less. It becomes less about what you can do rather than what you will do. In short TL isn't just about being able to now roll 3d6 for damage instead of 1d6.

I don't have my copy of How to Make War with me at work but it likely has more exact statistics for this. It goes into great detail in how to predict, as best you can, what sort of casualties to expect from nerve gas versus conventional warfare etc. A good book, if a bit dense to read through.

If someone disagrees with the assessment then they could simply do the reverse, or something else entirely, if it sits better with them :)

I would just caution placing too much importance on firepower compared to logistics and politics in advanced TL warfare.
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