[Banestorm] The war of Megalos against Caithness

[Polydamas]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

So you say the story about the Mongols is just made up?

By what you say, there is no way they could conquer the largest empire in history only feeding themselves with what they found in the steppes of Siberia and only feeding their horses with grass- but that's what they did.

A herd of Central Asian steppe ponies only a few generations away from wild horses is different from a large, powerful warhorse used to living in a stable and being fed grain and hay. Moreover, a horse must work harder to carry an armoured man and barding into battle than it must to carry a skinny nomad, a bow case, and a few score arrows.

When the Mongols tried to invade places where there was not enough grass or other food for them and their horses, Ain Jalut happened- the Mamluks smashed their remaining slow and clumsy cavalry with controlled charges then turned on the foot. Climate was always the main limit on Central Asian warfare. It worked very well indeed, as long as there was enough grass and open country for the horse-herds to feed for a campaign.

[Polydamas]

I calculate that if you have a growth of 1/2 of 1 percent, that the colonization population of Caithness needs to be 1.7 Million people in order to reach a population of 3 million 200 years later. Likewise, the population of Megalos with a growth rate of .005 is about 8.99 Million in order to have a population of 16 million people 200 years later. 1.7 million out of 8.99 million still works out to be roughly 1 in 6 had to migrate out of Megalos to start a colony called "Caithness".

Hal, you aren't assuming that the Megalan and Caithnesser populations had to grow at the same rate, are you? Obviously, once the orc threat in a region was elmininated, population would tend to explode. The area was ideal for colonization, after all. Cheap farmland, a fairly typical chance of disasters, and a population used to the idea of expanding farmland to better themselves suggest a fast rate of population growth like that of the 13 Colonies in the eighteenth century. Meanwhile, the population back in Megalos are under heavy taxation, the best farmland is scarce or unavailable, and all the most ambitious poor freedmen and escaped serfs have run off to Caithness. The founding of Caithness was Megalos' last succesful conquest, and I can easily see there being demographic reasons for this.

[Polydamas]

DrTemp, I suppose that you are right about the elves having divination magic. So most of the larger woods are unavailable as long-term hiding places for orcs, and the conquest speeds up because of that. Orcs can use such tactics in the areas of rough terrain without elf colonies, however. GURPS Banestorm makes it clear that elves are only present in some of Caithness' mid-sized forests in 2005, and I doubt that elves were present in all a mere 200 years ago.

However, I cannot accept your assumption that orc tribes never consist of anything more than a single band of hunters except when there is a great leader present. References in GURPS Banestorm are quite clear in referring to great and minor orc tribes. I cannot imagine a great tribe of less than a few thousand orcs. Such tribes would move in smaller groups related by blood and intimidated by the leaders of one of the bands. They might come together a few times a year to plan wars, receive orders to move their hunting grounds, and for the leaders to deliver a few good smackings to the other bands' leaders to show who is in charge.

Depending on the results of the knight-vs-orcs fight and Hal's defence of his population growth rates, perhaps I will have to conceed defeat. Until then, though, I still think that Caithness' history has not been justified.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

Well, we've got all this new land for free... :-> Anyway, of course you don't "use up" your horses lightheartedly. But really, the modern attitude of feeding them the best stuff available seems highly unlikely for early Caithness to me.

However, it was exactly what a knight who wanted to be an effective mounted combatant did.

In general, I wonder what you think that wild horses eat?

Grass. However, wild horses are generally smaller than those bred as warhorses, and aren't being asked to carry several hundred pounds of armoured rider around, or walk all day. As horses don't chew cud, any time spent walking is time they aren't gaining nutrition, so they need higher energy feed to compensate. Even race horses, when in training, are given extra hard food supplements because the hour or two each day that they spend in training costs more energy than they can readily get grazing.

Sure. But not by Christians, so it was deemed okay to kill those previous inhabitants.

ISTR that they weren't killed unless they objected to paying taxes, but were instead simply required to pay taxes, work the land for their new masters, and so on.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by hal

The reason I chose to calculate the 2% rate of growth was based on the fact that historically, while growth rates were lower than that, people are claiming that we can get more "modern" type living, agriculture, etc. The nasty part about the arguments for and against growth rates either higher or lower than 2% is simple. Using 2% as the baseline, the immediate objection was "Yes, but it doesn't make sense that the population of Megalos was less than 2 Million 200 years ago".

I see no problem with Megalos having a lower growth rate by that time, having already got to a 'comfortable' population density (well, I wouldn't if it wasn't so sparsely populated). At that point, growth would drop, and most of it would move into the new province (Caithness). Thus Caithness doesn't need to provide all its growth domestically, and Megalos' apparent slow growth in the past few centuries is explained.

One of the "ideas" I almost suggested as a possibility as to how Caithness MIGHT have conquored the lands of the orcs so quickly had to do with disease. Problem is, orcs are not humans, any disease that is contagious enough to be spread between humans and/or orcs would be a cross-species disease. Add to the mix that Orcs have disease resistance +2 AND a +2 to their HT, and it becomes readily apparent that orcs aren't likely to fall prey to diseases by humans.

However, if they'd never met measels, or small pox, or cholera, influenza, or the plague, that high HT wouldn't help that much - they'd be having to deal with a big penalty to their HT rolls for lack of resistance to these nasty new diseases. While you might argue that this goes back the other way, the orcs, being far less urbanised than humans, probably wouldn't have diseases of the sort that cause epidemics.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by hal

As stated in other of my posts - either the growth rate is high and the original population of Megalos and Caithness are as I've calculated, or, the grow rate is relatively low (and lower yet for Caithness because of the lack of magically augumented farming) and the population expansion written as "Yrth history" becomes invalid. You can't have it both ways. I calculate that if you have a growth of 1/2 of 1 percent, that the colonization population of Caithness needs to be 1.7 Million people in order to reach a population of 3 million 200 years later. Likewise, the population of Megalos with a growth rate of .005 is about 8.99 Million in order to have a population of 16 million people 200 years later. 1.7 million out of 8.99 million still works out to be roughly 1 in 6 had to migrate out of Megalos to start a colony called "Caithness".

I suspect you actually can, but explaining why the population growth rates go up and down in the manner required, and why they're different in one place to the next will result in quite an 'interesting' history.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by Polydamas

The founding of Caithness was Megalos' last succesful conquest, and I can easily see there being demographic reasons for this.

That's how I see it - or would if it weren't for the fact that Megalos is so big for its population.

[Bruno]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

So you say the story about the Mongols is just made up?

By what you say, there is no way they could conquer the largest empire in history only feeding themselves with what they found in the steppes of Siberia and only feeding their horses with grass- but that's what they did.

The mongols didn't have "horses" in the sense of knights. They had ponies and many to a man, too. You'd ride one pony for an hour or so, then switch to the next, meaning that no one pony would have to bear the effort for very long. Horses, unlike ponies, have sensitive tummies, and a LOT more mass to move around, even before you drop a knight on top of it.

That being another significant difference: the knight is fed a better diet from childhood than a mongol soldier, so he's taller and heavier. He also brings with him about twice as much gear by weight, the average mongol on horseback being a lightly armored archer with some melee weapons, rather than heavy cavalry. The Mongols used totally different tactics, being hit-and-run ranged skirmishing as long as humanly possible before going at it hand to hand.

A warhorse, unlike a mongol pony, has to carry a f-ing great big knight in armor, and it's own armor, for the duration of an entire stand up knock em down fight.

A grass fed horse isn't good for anything other than keeping it alive. You don't keep a horse on grass rations unless you're desperate. You feed it at the very least extra hay even if you aren't working it. If you are working it, it'd damn well better get a good ration of oats or you'll end up with a broken down nag or a dead horse.

[Bruno]

Originally Posted by DrTemp

In general, I wonder what you think that wild horses eat?

Wild horses don't work. They don't carry men, they don't wear armor, and they certainly don't wear armor and carry men, also wearing armor. Wild horses carry themselves only, and generally only fight for a short period or run for a short period, depending on size and numbers to protect themselves from most predators, and sprinting speed to protect themselves from the big or social ones.

They ALSO spend pretty much the entire day and night eating that grass. They eat in their SLEEP for heavens sake. They DON'T take two to eight hours out of their day to run around looking for orcs and fighting them.

[Bruno]

I think what's being missed here is the fact that a warhorse is like a prize boxer: it gets that way through constant training and peak nutrition. You don't get a prize boxer by feeding him only rice for three meals a day. You also don't train a prize boxer without getting to know him and be concerned about his wellbeing, especially after investing two years of intense training in him.

Same deal with a warhorse. Survival rations aren't enough to make a big strong warhorse, and it sure as heck won't be spirited on grass alone while training with its rider. A warhorse is not like a vehicle - it's an animal, and one that's trained to be agressive, as well. It bonds with its rider, and one or two grooms, and it's at best testy with everyone else. This means only the rider and only the one or two grooms can handle it. The rider has to train with the horse, as well, because the horse, unlike a vehicle, is an unpredicable animal. The rider has to know the horse to be effective, and the horse has to know the rider so as to not dump him accidentally and to predict what he wants.

You might be able to treat a workhorse calously and use it up, but after training a 2000lb animal day in and day out you'd have to be Calous to "use it up", and you'd have to be On The Edge to mistreat it and then perch on its back. This isn't just a riding horse or a pack horse or a work horse, this is an attack horse. It's a killer. Unlike an attack dog, it IS bigger than you, and you're right on its body where it can bite you, throw you and trample you, or even ROLL on you.