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Old 08-03-2020, 09:12 PM   #11
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

The first mining operations, I think, would consist of building cargo ships out of the asteroid, slapping an engine and fuel tank on ship, then having it automate itself to the destination. Orbital mechanics and obstacle avoidance are relatively simple enough that a modern desktop can handle it; and governments and corporations can afford the programming expertise needed to do so.

The engines and computers themselves might be shipped back on those same cargo ships, for a fee. The guidance program itself would probably be a yearly licensing fee. Gouging corporations, combined with a lack of government oversight, means that much of the profit gained in sales, could be lost in buying various manufactured goods.

A glut of materials would see prices drop; precipitously, for some goods - perhaps to the point that some miners are essentially indentured workers due to debt.

That would provide one of the impetuses for the first solar war...
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Old 08-03-2020, 09:13 PM   #12
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

You can do Saturn with TL9, you just need to build big (SM+14) for passive radiation protection and life support. Of course, that requires a massive space infrastructure, but that is not impossible, just unlikely without a really good economic or military reason. Uranus and Neptune are highly unlikely though, as they would take years.
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Old 08-03-2020, 09:33 PM   #13
Fred Brackin
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by Say, it isn't that bad! View Post
...The spaceship I designed (which might be upgraded to TL10 anyway) has a minimum of 50 dDR, so radiation should not be too much of a hazard?

I mean, we've got a tiny space station up there with metal walls that basically make it a tin can in comparison, and people seem fine for months at a time?

Also, the US has been planning a manned mission to Mars for some years, and nobody at NASA seems panicked over everybody they send, dying from it.
It's not dDR it's number of systems. See Spaceships 5. Especially the part where cosmic rays divide conventioanl PF by 100.

The ISS is inside Earth's magnetosphere which deflects most of the charged particles that make up cosmic rays.

At NASA the people in charge of human factors are intensely woried about long term radiation. The people working on other aspects of a Mars mission are just hoping the human factors group solves their problem.

Outside of NASA peole like Robert Zubrin are confident that they can find astronauts (or maybe "astronauts") who will make heroic sacrifices like dying of cancer after they get back to Earth.
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Old 08-03-2020, 10:18 PM   #14
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
You can do Saturn with TL9, you just need to build big (SM+14) for passive radiation protection and life support. Of course, that requires a massive space infrastructure, but that is not impossible, just unlikely without a really good economic or military reason. Uranus and Neptune are highly unlikely though, as they would take years.
You mean the colony ships, settlements, and stations? Although the settlements would mostly "borrow" SM by burrowing... ;)

Edit: Some parts of this post has been edited, as I forgot about the Delta-V increase from having 6+ fuel tanks. This Delta-V increase lets us use only 6 fuel tanks across the entire Earth-Jupiter run

Alright, so settlement routes (using Brachistochrone Transfer, assuming 0.005G acceleration; 1 Advanced Fusion Plasma Pulse reaction drive) would be:
Earth->Mars = 39 days, 100 mps (5+1 extra fuel tanks).
Mars->Inner Belt/Ceres = 51 days, 130 mps (6 fuel tanks, 14 mps extra). Edit: The Delta-V increase lets us drop from 7 to 6 fuel tanks.

For the Inner Belt/Ceres to the *Jovian asteroid clouds, we have two options:
1. We use a Hohmann Transfer for Ceres to the *Jovian asteroid clouds:
Inner Belt/Ceres->*Jovian asteroid clouds = 1,400 days, 3.1 mps.

2. Build two way-stations; one at 3.533~ AU, and another at 4.367~ AU. This would require fuel and supplies for both itself, and ships making the transit. The most expedient would seem to be to boost two sets of three sizable asteroids; one nickel-iron, one high in uranium, and one water-ice. From the inner belt, this will take 1,000 days and 1.4 mps for the first set, and 1,200 days and 2.4 mps for the second set, using Hohmann Transfers.

About three and a third standard years later, the Ceres-Jupiter Transit Stations are in place. Provided sufficient initial asteroids are chosen, it should be at least ten years before further resupply should be scheduled.

We then proceed to further Brachistochrone Transfers as outlined:
Inner Belt/Ceres->Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 1 = 45 days, (6 fuel tanks). Edit: The Delta-V increase lets us drop the extra 7th fuel tank (originally there to ensure we had any extra Delta-V at all).
Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 1->Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 2 = 45 days, (6 extra fuel tanks). Edit: The Delta-V increase lets us drop the extra 7th fuel tank (originally there to ensure we had any extra Delta-V at all).
Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 2->Jovian asteroid cloud = 45 days, (6 fuel tanks). Edit: The Delta-V increase lets us drop the extra 7th fuel tank (originally there to ensure we had any extra Delta-V at all).

135 days after leaving Ceres, and 1,200 days after the start of the mission, we've arrived at Jupiter's orbital ring (not, it should be clarified, at Jupiter itself).

Jupiter's orbital ring to Saturn requires either several dedicated asteroid stations, or a Hohmann Transfer taking about ten years, and 2.1 mps. Fortunately, we've arrived not just at one of Jupiter's orbital rings, but at one of its lagrangian asteroid clouds.

* Jupiter has two asteroid clouds; one preceding it, and one following it, at about 60 degrees away on the orbital plane. This gets us out to Jupiter's orbit, while avoiding the radiation.

Last edited by Say, it isn't that bad!; 08-04-2020 at 12:27 AM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 10:29 PM   #15
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by Say, it isn't that bad! View Post
The setting:
Year: Around 2200-ish?
Tech Level: 9, no super-science, no FTL, *no AI/limited AI.
Switches: If a switch has a more realistic option, assume that is the one that is used unless otherwise notified here.
Setting summary: Humanity has colonized much of the solar system, and Space War I started over the issue of Belter independence when someone did something precipitous "because negotiations were going too slow."

Open for suggestions, discussions, and critique.
I think that TL9 is a little too low for c. 2200. Heck, Transhuman Space is c. 2100 and is looking at TL10 with some TL11 nanotechnology and that roughly matches the "Accelerated" on Ultra-Tech's development table (IMHO that was little too conservative as we were are seeing some prototype TL9 right now.)

Not everything has to be TL10. TL 10 Power Beamed Power and (advanced) Solar Cell should be on the table by 2200.

Give the issues of radiation a Radscanner (TL10) should also be around.

Explorer and Worker Swarms (TL10) would IMHO also be fast tracked (if a robot can do it why risk a human life?)
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Last edited by maximara; 08-03-2020 at 10:45 PM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 10:29 PM   #16
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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It's not dDR it's number of systems. See Spaceships 5. Especially the part where cosmic rays divide conventioanl PF by 100.
I don't have Spaceships 5. Some silly person instead bought "Pyramid 3/051: Tech and Toys III". *Cough* That cosmic ray armour divisor is really going to be a problem... I presume that one also has methods to protect against cosmic rays?

Although there's also Hardened in Spaceships 1, which I slapped on for reasons of "armour's cheap". B47 would suggest that would change the AD (100) to AD (10), but that seems... questionable? To be honest, I'm not quite sure how Armour Divisor modifiers work in the specific case between (10) and (100).
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The ISS is inside Earth's magnetosphere which deflects most of the charged particles that make up cosmic rays.
Good to know.
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Originally Posted by Fred Brackin View Post
At NASA the people in charge of human factors are intensely woried about long term radiation. The people working on other aspects of a Mars mission are just hoping the human factors group solves their problem.
Yeah... maybe some form of magnetic shielding? I couldn't imagine most people would want to strap lead to their spaceship... anyway, I'll try to remember to get Spaceships 5 next.
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Outside of NASA peole like Robert Zubrin are confident that they can find astronauts (or maybe "astronauts") who will make heroic sacrifices like dying of cancer after they get back to Earth.
...Well. May their quest be in vain, then, because that sounds pretty vain.

And I think that's all I'll say about that here.
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Old 08-03-2020, 10:44 PM   #17
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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I think that TL9 is a little too low for c. 2200. Heck, Transhuman Space is c. 2100 and is looking at TL10 with some TL11 nanotechnology and that roughly matches the "Accelerated" on Ultra-Tech's development table (IMHO that was little too conservative as we were are seeing some prototype TL9 right now.)
As noted in the original post, I'm using "soft wall" computer technology; for further explanation, this is the theory that computer technology will get harder and harder to miniaturize, to the point that, while gains are expected, those gains will be A) minimal, and B) exorbitant in resources.

We seem to be hitting that wall right now; Global Foundries has dropped out of the nanometer race entirely, and Intel has had a lot of trouble getting past 14nm.

Transhuman Space, on the other hand, presupposes abundant, powerful computers on a massive scale.

Also, nanobot technology has a number of hurdles (some listed in the books) which mean that it's less-modest claims should be chewed and considered, but perhaps not swallowed (just yet).
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Not everything has to be TL10. TL 10 Power Beamed Power and (advanced) Solar Cell should be on the table by 2200.
Beamed power is definitely something I like, as are efficient, cheap solar cells. However, beamed power loses out to practical fusion power on a safety level.
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Give the issues of radiation a Radscanner (TL10) should also be around.
A Belter without a radscanner is typically locked in the sickbay until the body doc and the head doc can both clear them.
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Explorer and Worker Swarms (TL10) would IMHO also be fast tracked (if a robot can do it why risk a human life?)
The heat dissipation issues of some nanobot swarms, especially worker swarms, mean that I tend to view such technology as being either a form of super-science, or much slower than typically shown.

But yes - automation is definitely used; when I say "miner", it should be read as "educated technician directing robots" (edit: or driving a vehicle), something I should have made clear.

Also, I will edit the date and tech level. A lot of stuff to respond to...

Last edited by Say, it isn't that bad!; 08-03-2020 at 10:55 PM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 10:54 PM   #18
AlexanderHowl
 
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

Quote:
Originally Posted by Say, it isn't that bad! View Post
You mean the colony ships, settlements, and stations? Although the settlements would mostly "borrow" SM by burrowing... ;)

Alright, so settlement routes (using Brachistochrone Transfer, assuming 0.005G acceleration; 1 Advanced Fusion Plasma Pulse reaction drive) would be:
Earth->Mars = 39 days, 100 mps (5+1 extra fuel tanks).
Mars->Inner Belt/Ceres = 51 days, 130 mps (7 fuel tanks, 10 mps extra).

For the Inner Belt/Ceres to the *Jovian asteroid clouds, we have two options:
1. We use a Hohmann Transfer for Ceres to the *Jovian asteroid clouds:
Inner Belt/Ceres->*Jovian asteroid clouds = 1,400 days, 3.1 mps.

2. Build two way-stations; one at 3.533~ AU, and another at 4.367~ AU. This would require fuel and supplies for both itself, and ships making the transit. The most expedient would seem to be to boost two sets of three sizable asteroids; one nickel-iron, one high in uranium, and one water-ice. From the inner belt, this will take 1,000 days and 1.4 mps for the first set, and 1,200 days and 2.4 mps for the second set, using Hohmann Transfers.

About three and a third standard years later, the Ceres-Jupiter Transit Stations are in place. Provided sufficient initial asteroids are chosen, it should be at least ten years before further resupply should be scheduled.

We then proceed to further Brachistochrone Transfers as outlined:
Inner Belt/Ceres->Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 1 = 45 days, (6+1 extra fuel tanks).
Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 1->Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 2 = 45 days, (6+1 extra fuel tanks).
Ceres-Jupiter Transit Station 2->Jovian asteroid cloud = 45 days, (6+1 extra fuel tanks).

135 days after leaving Ceres, and 1,200 days after the start of the mission, we've arrived at Jupiter's orbital ring (not, it should be clarified, at Jupiter itself).

Jupiter's orbital ring to Saturn requires either several dedicated asteroid stations, or a Hohmann Transfer taking about ten years, and 2.1 mps. Fortunately, we've arrived not just at one of Jupiter's orbital rings, but at one of its lagrangian asteroid clouds.

* Jupiter has two asteroid clouds; one preceding it, and one following it, at about 60 degrees away on the orbital plane. This gets us out to Jupiter's orbit, while avoiding the radiation.
Using a fusion engine (rather than a more expensive fusion pulse drive), you can make Saturn in around 2 years. With 8 fuel tanks of hydrogen reaction mass, you have a total of 115.2 mps of delta-v. If you accelerate to 55 mps and reserve 55 mps for deceleration, you end up with 5.2 mps for maneuvering. Even with non-core systems, which would be needed for spin gravity, you can end up with a PF of 2,000/20, meaning that you would take 3 rads a year from cosmic radiation and solar flares, well within the tolerances of human beings.
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Old 08-03-2020, 11:24 PM   #19
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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As noted in the original post, I'm using "soft wall" computer technology; for further explanation, this is the theory that computer technology will get harder and harder to miniaturize, to the point that, while gains are expected, those gains will be A) minimal, and B) exorbitant in resources.

We seem to be hitting that wall right now; Global Foundries has dropped out of the nanometer race entirely, and Intel has had a lot of trouble getting past 14nm.
I think that is more due to the limitation on what you can do with a CISC based chip. The Apple A11 for the iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and iPhone X in 2017 was 10 nm. Current iPhones use a 7nm ARM chip (A12) and the A14 (a Bionic-based, 5 nm 12-core CPU) is supposed to show up in a Mac in 2021.

Though we are going to hit the quantum tunelling wall soon even with functional prototype 3 nm chips supposedly due out in 2021 (Apple's planned A16 is supposed to be 3 nm and be out in 2022). I'm not sure if the gate-all-around FETs for 2nm chips is going to pan out and that may be the limit with RISC based instruction sets. To go faster and cooler quantum computing will have to become a thing and that is so much on the theory side it is not even funny.

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Transhuman Space, on the other hand, presupposes abundant, powerful computers on a massive scale..
From 2017 on (10 nm or smaller) Apple has been just north of 200 million each year with the iPhones alone (if not for the pandemic them hitting 800 million total was possible; not so much now) that is reasonable even if computer technology goes totally safe tech due to 5 nm turning out to be as small as a CPU can get and still be viable for mass production.
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Last edited by maximara; 08-04-2020 at 12:27 AM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 11:31 PM   #20
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Using a fusion engine (rather than a more expensive fusion pulse drive), you can make Saturn in around 2 years. With 8 fuel tanks of hydrogen reaction mass, you have a total of 115.2 mps of delta-v. If you accelerate to 55 mps and reserve 55 mps for deceleration, you end up with 5.2 mps for maneuvering. Even with non-core systems, which would be needed for spin gravity, you can end up with a PF of 2,000/20, meaning that you would take 3 rads a year from cosmic radiation and solar flares, well within the tolerances of human beings.
I'm not sure what you mean by "fusion engine"; the Fusion Pulse Drive on Spaceships p22 gets 5 mps per fuel tank at TL9 and 10 mps at TL10, while the Fusion Rocket on p23 gets 12 mps at TL9, and 60 mps at TL10; neither seem to match the numbers you gave.

I'm using an auto-calculating spreadsheet that seems to have come with "Pyramid 3/079:Space Atlas" to calculate transfer times. It seems lacking on places to enter the minimum or maximum delta-V you're using.

Tolerances over time; although I'd worry more about peak exposure.
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