11-26-2019, 03:48 AM | #1 |
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: The Kingdom of Insignificance
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Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
Got a game set in 2030-2040ish, and I want the PCs to take a road trip deep into farm land. But...
Q1: If dense urban and suburban locales switch to autonomous vehicles only on roads, and private car ownership becomes replaced with a horde of AI driven taxis, what about locations outside of designated urban areas and arterial roads? What potentially could be the vehicle options for people living and working on rural farming properties, or in similar industries, like say, forestry? Q2: I have read somewhere recently that electric looks like the default option for urban vehicles, but what about long distance trucking, farm equipment and the like? Would they be electric as well, or possibly hydrogen fuel cell powered?EDIT: I'm positing that there's no petrol, diesel, or LNG powered vehicles.
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11-26-2019, 08:15 AM | #2 |
Hero of Democracy
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: far from the ocean
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
Question 2:
Farm Tractors are actually one of the success stories for Automated Driving right now, at least on large farms. Large fields well maintained and only driven on by one vehicle (or at by a small number of vehicles with a single owner) are a pretty good environment for automated driving. I don't think that endurance is a big deal there, as you'll always be within a few miles of your infrastructure. For Long Haul trucks its unsure if range and downtime when charging are issues. They might not be, so you're justified ignoring those possible issues, but replaceable batteries might be able to overcome them. The truck pulls in to the station, gets the depleted battery lifted out, a charged one placed in it, and continues on its way in less time than it takes a truck driver to order a hamburger and go to the bathroom. Specialty Big truck gas stations are already a thing, and are already islands of civilization in otherwise barren stretches of road. Resource extraction equipment is the hard leg of this question. You often have specialized equipment in the middle of nowhere that requires a lot of power. A secondary concern here is that a lot more than vehicles need power in those situations: you have lights, stoves, heaters, and the other basic amenities, which currently run off of gas generators. Trucking piles of batteries or fuel cells back and forth might work, but someone would have to do the math on it. Question 1: Either the rural folks are allowed to drive manually, or you have Automated Vehicles and a navigation system that can handle the small roads and off-roads of the rural areas. The rural folks might own their own vehicles, or they might have their own taxi-networks. If I had to guess, I'd say the farmers had a light taxi network supplemented by privately owned but Automated vehicles.
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11-26-2019, 08:25 AM | #3 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
There are a lot of possibilities, though they depend on the type of energy technology. Methanol fuel cell vehicles are a possibility, as a civilization that possesses commercial fusion or orbital solar arrays could create methanol from atmospheric carbon dioxide and seawater. Excess energy production could be 'stored' in methanol, which could act as a vehicular fuel in place of well, everything (it would actually work out better than electrical cars for the majority of consumers).
As for AI cars, they are far too vulnerable to hacking to be trusted from a contemporary cybersecurity perspective, and you only need one enemy nation with imagination during a war to show the error of trusting AI vehicles. For example, imagine that an enemy nations hackd a significant number of AI vehicles in a target nation and programs them to ignore anything that is the color red. The AI vehicles would not 'see' red lights, stop signs, red cars, people wearing red, etc. They could even have them as sleeper programs that are activated through specific commands uploaded through the Internet. |
11-26-2019, 08:52 AM | #4 |
Hero of Democracy
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: far from the ocean
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
That's not a deal-breaker for most situations in the modern world, for better or worse.
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11-26-2019, 10:24 AM | #5 | |
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
Quote:
Looking up the current laws, currently a trucker can only drive during a 14-hour daily limit, and can only drive for 11 hours of that time. If the laws are unchanged (and long-haul trucks legally require a human operator, rather than being able to rely solely on their AI autopilot), this means you'd need a battery that can keep the truck going for up to 11 hours, and that can recharge in 10 hours or less. 10/10 seems like it would probably be achievable (and would require some of the breaks the driver takes during his 14 hour window involve some recharging of the battery). Were I designing a future electric semi tractor-trailer for a campaign, I'd probably do as I indicated above, with battery cells in the floor of the tractor and trailer both. As with the Tesla models, the electric motors would be incorporated into the axels. The trailer would maintain the large "nose" as a combination crumple zone and sleeping area, easily accessible from inside the cabin. The top of the tractor and most trailers would be covered in solar cells to help extend battery life during the day (sides could also benefit, but the cells would likely end up damaged by road debris). For hauls over areas with few recharging stations, the trucks may replace some of their cargo with additional batteries that can be plugged into charging ports to further supplement range. At relatively static worksites unconnected to the power grid, you'll need some sort of generator (probably several) to keep the vehicles going, but the vehicles themselves can probably get away with relatively small batteries and frequent recharges (likely recharging while they work, and detaching only when driving around). What this generator is will depend on the setting - it may be ICE burning fossil fuels or some sort of alcohol; it may be powered by nearby wind turbines, solar panels, hydroelectric, and/or geothermal energy; or it could be nuclear in nature, ranging from RTG's to small fission/fusion plants. At very high TL, antimatter or total conversion may be available, although the former is probably a bad idea for liability reasons. Those options relying on fuel (ICE, nuclear over the long term, antimatter, and some types of total conversion) will need to have tankers/trucks bringing if in from outside unless it can be locally sourced. Beamed energy from orbit is technically an option (basically being a giant laser that aims at specially-designed solar cells on the worksite), although energy loss from atmosphere may make this a poor choice compared to just placing whatever energy generation methods the orbital lasers use at the worksite. The orbital lasers may also violate various space treaties, which would make them unfeasible if said treaties aren't replaced or modified. More dynamic worksites will need more portable energy generation methods. ICE is reliable but may have environmental concerns. Nuclear is a bit more difficult to make into a readily-portable form, but this should be doable. Antimatter is a disaster waiting to happen, but total conversion may be an option. Beamed power is probably more feasible here, as your orbital lasers just need to adjust their aimpoints to keep up with the equipment. In any case, outside of ICE you may opt for a separate energy supply vehicle that follows the working vehicles around (from a safe distance) and recharges them when needed. Rural citizens, as already mentioned, are more likely to own their own vehicles rather than rely on a city-wide taxi service. I'd expect well-to-do urbanites to similarly own their own vehicles for reasons of health and comfort. Such vehicles likely link into the city navigation grid to make transportation as safe and easy as possible, and use designated parking areas to wait after dropping their owners off, recharging while they wait.
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11-26-2019, 12:28 PM | #6 |
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: New Zealand.
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
Forestry vehicals include early walkers (and climbers) currently so there is the possibility they are developed further. Cabs are likely to be minimal or non existant as operational use is typically by remote.
ATVs, RTVs and side by sides are less likely to be A.I. controlled when working with animals, there is also the issues relating to lack of reliably cellular coverage. The electric equivalent of the fuel truck or trailer is likely. I could also see cargo drones as well.
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11-26-2019, 08:38 PM | #7 |
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Oz
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
If you are exchanging batteries than recharging them in place, it might be best to put them on a trailer behind the load.
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Decay is inherent in all composite things. Nod head. Get treat. Last edited by Agemegos; 11-26-2019 at 09:15 PM. |
11-26-2019, 09:07 PM | #8 |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Shoreline, WA (north of Seattle)
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
Here's my take.
First, technology expands patchily, so expect to see poorer areas (which usually includes rural areas) using older tech. That, plus the difficulty of the infrastructure, makes me think that rural and wilderness vehicles will still use internal combustion engines, but with ethanol or biodiesel for fuel. Depending on the age of a vehicle, it might have a self-driving module for in-town use, but switch to driver control outside of the network. Vehicles without that module might have to be parked at the edge of the network. Small towns might have a permissive network that accommodates human drivers. Culturally, you might have ICE engines associated with rugged lifestyles, and usually found in pickups or SUVs. If someone's got one in their driveway, you know they are or aspire to be in the great outdoors. See also overlanding... Now, farm equipment is, as mentioned upthread, a prime candidate for electrification; it's used in a predictable area where you can easily have charger infrastructure installed, and its usual use allows you to recharge/swap batteries fairly easily. The farm of the future includes a power station, where a renewable energy source or three charge a power bank for the property and a few swappable batteries for the tractor and combine. (This also probably has the central farm computer for coordinating any AI guided machines.) ... a good example of this, of all things, is The Magic School Bus Rides Again, season 2, episode 3, "Ghost Farm", in which the kids explore a "haunted farm" complete with drones. The things you learn parenting a small child... For bulk transport, and probably long-distance passenger travel, I think you'd see a lot fewer semi trucks and a lot more rail. Small towns would see the railroad station become more important again; I think you could also put a biodiesel/ethanol plant on the edge of a lot of towns - after all, you're already growing the raw material nearby. Farms either have their own rail spurs (for big operations) or short-haul trucks to move produce to the station. Depending on culture, horses might make a comeback as around-the-farm transport, but I think you're more likely to see the usual pickup or quads, either electric or ethanol. Given that a pickup tends to also be the family vehicle, and the one you may need in an emergency (to get to the hospital, evacuate from a disaster, or get out to a sick animal), it'll probably still be ICE so you're never stuck with an undercharged battery. (And because farmers tend to be small-c conservative and stick with what they know to be reliable.) Remote worksites will use generators; usually these will be biodiesel or ethanol, but if it fits the site there might be a solar or wind plant in place, assuming the site will be in use long enough to justify it. Resource extraction operations like logging will go with a mix of ICE trucks or an electric rail line to haul the goods out, but would be a good fit for electric/drone extraction vehicles, run from a central temporary hub. |
11-27-2019, 01:50 AM | #9 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
I really do not see logging as a large industry. In any rational society, logging for paper would be replaced by hemp production. It will probably occur as a byproduct of CBD production. It is far more economical than logging, and the seeds can be used to produce hemp oil and hemp protein powder (and it is universally legal in developed nations).
You can grow an average of 2500 plants per acre and, with earnings from CBD alone at $30 per plant (and total costs of $4 per plant), a farmer would net $65,000 per acre. Even if the cost of CBD plummeted to $6 per plant, farmers would make $5,000 per acre, much more than any conventional crop. They could practically give away the hemp fiber at that point. |
11-27-2019, 03:56 AM | #10 | ||
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Oz
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Re: Near future vehicular transport options? [TL8+]
Quote:
Telepresence? Quote:
Electric with overnight charging in the shed (with either standalone solar on the shed roof or grid power)?
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Decay is inherent in all composite things. Nod head. Get treat. Last edited by Agemegos; 11-27-2019 at 04:02 AM. |
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