Recovery time from a demonic invasion

[Anthony]

Let's say we have a low tech country invaded by a demonic army. Eventually the demon lord is driven off by a Small Band of Heroes, but in the meantime there is vast death (~50% of the population) and destruction (very few places untouched, many razed).

How long would it take to recover and rebuild? What would the recovery look like?

[Dalillama]

How low-tech? How big was it to start with? How were the neighbouring countries affected? How much bureaucratic infrastructure was there before? How much is left? Is the original government still extant in some form?

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Anthony

Let's say we have a low tech country invaded by a demonic army. Eventually the demon lord is driven off by a Small Band of Heroes, but in the meantime there is vast death (~50% of the population) and destruction (very few places untouched, many razed).

How long would it take to recover and rebuild? What would the recovery look like?

It depends on what the demonic army did, on the psychology of the populace, and whether any social order remains.

Fifty percent mortality is enormous. The closest thing I can think of to that in real life was the Black Death of the 14th Century, which probably killed at least 30% of Europe, and some estimates run close to 50%. It left deep psychological scars and transformed society permanently. Depending on what you consider to be the point of 'recovered', the Black Death recovery time was probably 50-100 years. For certain nit-picky definitions, the answer would be 'not yet as of 2019'.

Since it was a demonic army, much depends on whether they left any magical/other parting gifts. Is the soil still arable? The water supply reliable?

If it's still possible to grow food, then the issue is social order. Does the king (or whatever) still rule? Is there something recognizable as currency? Did the invasion disproportionately kill some groups over others?

If for some reason the demons murdered way more women then men, for ex, recovery will be enormously delayed because of low fertility. If they killed the young men disproportionately, which is likely in an armed invasion, fertility will recover quickly, but labor will be desperately short, which will screw up transportation and farming and everything else. OTOH, if there's enough social order for it to matter, wages will rise, benefiting some groups.

If there's enough social order to bring in a crop and transport it to market in that first year, recovery will begin and I'm guessing probably 50-150 years, depending on the details and what other countries do. If things are so broken down that that first crop fails/can't be delivered, starvation and plague follow, and the recovery doesn't start because the disaster isn't over.

There's a non-trivial chance the former social order collapses entirely, and what rises in its place is quite different. The realm may break apart and recover as separate states, it might be absorbed into neighboring realms. A monarchy might become a theocracy or a republic, or vice versa.

But I would guess the absolute minimum for recovery, depending on your definition of 'recovered', would be 50 years. It might take much less for society to start to function again, but populations would need time to recover and 'recovered' would take a while.

[ericthered]

Which 50% is really important. Did they kill people throughout the region equally? or were 50% of all villages slaughtered? Were any populations hit especially hard, like those who couldn't flee or the young male population who were called on to fight?

Did the demons slaughter animals as well as people? did they torch buildings and fields? How much damage do they do to the local infrastructure? Its also worth asking if the 50% who survived did so by running or if they just got lucky and the demons never hit them. Its possible that the demons overran 100% of the country but half of everyone fled over a river. Modern wars often see far more people displaced than killed, and I suspect ancient ones may have had a similar effect.

Finally, its worth looking at how the countries's neighbors were effected by the invasion, and if the 50% can be replaced out of that population pool. Sons without an inheritance could gain a farm by traveling to the demon ravished lands, and that's a tempting offer. That could result in a quick recovery of population and wealth, but it may mean the the local culture never really recovers, and the country blends into a neighbor or neighbors.

[Anthony]

Hm. Some interesting things I hadn't considered, though details are in flux anyway, I was mostly just thinking "sometime in living memory there was a demonic invasion with horrific damage and deaths, what is it like now?"

To simplify away the 'and the neighboring countries invade' possible outcome of such a situation, perhaps a large island, and sea travel limited (could just be generally difficult, could be leftover aquatic monsters).

I would assume deaths not evenly spread over the land, and disproportionately among fighting age men, though no area or group untouched. The effect of essentially wiping out a generation of males would certainly change society, though I'm not sure exactly how.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Anthony

Hm. Some interesting things I hadn't considered, though details are in flux anyway, I was mostly just thinking "sometime in living memory there was a demonic invasion with horrific damage and deaths, what is it like now?"

To simplify away the 'and the neighboring countries invade' possible outcome of such a situation, perhaps a large island, and sea travel limited (could just be generally difficult, could be leftover aquatic monsters).

And/or it so happens that many or most of your skilled mariners were lost in the invasion. Seafaring and shipbuilding, even (or esp!) at low TLs, is a skilled trade.

Another possibility would be a society occupying a fertile region surrounded by extensive deserts.

I would assume deaths not evenly spread over the land, and disproportionately among fighting age men, though no area or group untouched. The effect of essentially wiping out a generation of males would certainly change society, though I'm not sure exactly how.

1. Young men are at a premium, for labor, fighting, and breeding. For at least one generation, you've got more women than there are men to marry them. The effect of this depends on the social customs of the society.

If it's mostly monogamous and holds on to that through the catastrophe, the surviving young, able-bodied men have a wide pick of mates, and even the semi-able-bodied men probably can find a wife easily enough. The rest of the females settle for what they can get or stay single. There'd be a substantial percentage of 'old maids' in the subsequent generation, and society would place a premium on marriage prospects for girls. As others have noted, see post Great War France for an example of a little of this.

Possibly, a former monogamous culture might become at least a bit more polygamous after such an event, but that's by no means guaranteed.

Many families will have lost all of their male offspring. Depending on the culture, this may leave a large population of elderly with no means of support as time passes. It also may mean that quite a few farms, shops, etc. are going to be up for sale, cheap, for lack of heirs over time.

One possible outcome would be that healthy male orphans would be highly desired for adoption because of all the families that lost their sons. This too would leave a mark on the society.

As others have noted, the shortage of labor is likely to mean that wages will rise, maybe by quite a lot. There's a fair chance that the remaining power structure from before will try to stop this by legal actions or other means (that happened after the Black Death) but such efforts are likely to be futile at best.

2. The shortage of labor also means that every healthy male in the military is a young male not working. This would apply pressure for female labor, but at the same time, the population shortage would argue for motherhood as the societal ideal for women.

Social power, officially or not, is likely to move from the former ruling class toward the surviving laborers, at least for at time. There just won't be many other sources of labor to tap into.

[RyanW]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Fifty percent mortality is enormous. The closest thing I can think of to that in real life was the Black Death of the 14th Century, which probably killed at least 30% of Europe, and some estimates run close to 50%. It left deep psychological scars and transformed society permanently.

Another close parallel might be the Thirty Years War, which saw death tolls similar to the Black Death in parts of Germany. It was over two centuries before a functioning, unified German state returned.

Originally Posted by Anthony

I would assume deaths not evenly spread over the land, and disproportionately among fighting age men, though no area or group untouched. The effect of essentially wiping out a generation of males would certainly change society, though I'm not sure exactly how.

And that makes me think of France in the aftermath of World War I.

[Þorkell]

Originally Posted by Anthony

I would assume deaths not evenly spread over the land, and disproportionately among fighting age men, though no area or group untouched. The effect of essentially wiping out a generation of males would certainly change society, though I'm not sure exactly how.

Originally Posted by RyanW

And that makes me think of France in the aftermath of World War I.

Or the post WW2 Soviet Union. What percentage of men born in the early to mid 20s survived the war?

[RogerBW]

Originally Posted by Anthony

How long would it take to recover and rebuild? What would the recovery look like?

I think your best historical model would be the Black Death across Eurasia in the 14th century. Death rates are argued over, but in some places they were definitely up to 50%. And there's a whole separate article on consequences. Broadly: labour was suddenly very much more relatively valuable than other things (land, cash).

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by RogerBW

Broadly: labour was suddenly very much more relatively valuable than other things (land, cash).

Though plague is notable for killing people but mostly leaving infrastructure intact, warfare isn't so selective. The thirty years war seems like the most appropriate model (more modern examples have the problem of looking at consequences on an industrial society, which is more advanced than I want).