Need help with placing a Worldline.

[Rowan]

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

Otherwise places like Mali and Ethiopia are as good candidates for major power status, if not better, as any European power and without desert-crossing zombies as likely destinations for refugees from the Middle East and North Africa.

Okay. Why, though? Can you explain why those powers would turn into great powers on this world line? If they did not become great powers on our world line, can you tell me why? It would help me to have a clearer picture if I understood what influences might have been key factors for them.

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

(Come to think of it, you could probably put an Islamic (Omani) outlier in Madagascar and various other islands along the way as a minor power.)

Okay that's good to know, but we can footnote those notions for now. I want to try and stick as close to the formats used in the Infinite Worlds book. =)

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

I'd imagine Steppe would survive reasonably well but go back to Diffuse Diffuse (the Mongol conquests won't survive the POD).

Right, again that's a good candidate for another footnote. :D

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

Unless South Asia is as depopulated as China it'll probably will be recovering by the time Malay are finished with South-East Asia and maybe southernmost China. (And if the Ethiopians are in the race, they'll be in Western Asia almost as soon as it's safe.)

Perhaps, we might say that large plague outbreaks 'continue' in those areas for whatever reason? Lack of support networks, unified governments, political or cultural infighting, etc? And all that lack of support leads to outbreaks of diseases as well? In fact, perhaps we could use that as a reason to keep the African powers in a more tenuous position so they don't have the chance to grow past minor power status?

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

(And somehow I doubt that any notable number of refugees from China will make it all the to Europe. In fact, they are more likely to go to places like Japan and Indonesia. Europe gets refugees from Western and Central Asia. And from other parts of Europe.)

Okay then, that's a MAJOR problem them. We really, really need to find a way to ensure an unrecoverable wave of mass immigration from the asian lands into europe. Otherwise the European area will most certainly not collapse. And the entire premise for the worldline falls apart. I'd rather not have to start from scratch. Can you think of a reason for a mass immigration. It doesn't have to be a 100% plausible or realistic one. alot of these World Lines can get creative in what happens, as long as it doesn't dip into weird parallel territory.

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

This might have some usefulness: Europe in 1200

That map is helpful, and it was by in large what I was looking for. =) Thank you. When I speak of Spain, I am, sadly, using the more modern term, or at least the one used by the 16th century, for that land mass simply because the landmass there before that seems to be a patchwork of different territories. Sadly, I don't know much of that part of history, and I felt it was easier to use the term Spain, rather then to rattle off the various names of the patchworks. I have no idea, for instance, if those patchworks are all separate entities, or if they are together under some common 'banner'. I will try to keep things a bit more temporally accurate in future discussions. I note on this map, that their is no Germany at this time as such, but a huge tract of land listed as the Holy Roman Empire, and Italy as it appears is not so much Italy, but the Papal states along a small section of the 'boot', as it's sometimes called. =)

[Rowan]

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Well, I still like the idea of the Mediterranean islands. It's time Corsica got the empire it deserves! :-)

It's just that Corsica doesn't seem to be very big to me. What sort of ability would they have to take and hold territory? All of Italy, say? Italy and say Spain? More then that? Would they be able to just swoop down the southern part of europe and grab everything including some of Hungary to the north?

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

But if the Mediterranean islands don't grab you, Spain is another good canidate. Given your scenario of a disease that starts in eastern Asia and gets less severe as it moves westward, the westernmost tip of Europe seems like a good place to be only minimally affected.

Well this was my initial reaction, but at this time, it's been brought to my attention by another, that Spain as we'll come to know it in the 1500's doesn't exist at this time. It's just a landmass that seems to be split up into different territories. And an Arabic civilization seems to cover most of what will be southern Spain, and parts of Portugal from across the straits and into North Africa. I imagine it would be easy to accidentally have an outbreak if someone gets in through the 'back door' so to speak?

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Italy is another possiblity: the Alps to the north give it a lot of defensibility against land-based invaision, whether by desperate refugees, or flesh-maddened hordes of the undead.
And as others have pointed out, Scandinavia is a strong possiblity, both for defensibility, and because the climate would tend to kill off biological zombies, at least during the winter.

Ya. Scandinavia is kind of the front runner right now for a civilization/major power to be honest. They would probably push east though right? Territory wise I mean? They're not likely to just head across the water, and then south into eastern europe, right?

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Also, if you wanted to drop the supernatural aspect entirely, you could say that, instead of rising after death, victims who suffered a certain ammount of damage (equal or more than their HP, say), have some weird brain damage that manifests as reduced IQ, Compulsive Cannibalism, and/or Gluttony. That means that most people simply won't survive, and that some of the survivors will be animalistic, human-flesh-eating monsters.

It could be a kind of parasitic infection. Their are some parasites that can make animals do weird things. So yeah .. I could see it perhaps loosing the mystic bent. We could still incorporate Cabal influence, into England at least, like Captain-Captain mentioned somewhere up thread. Even if it's not a magical disease .. the safeguards against catching it could be so.

[Kelly Pedersen]

Originally Posted by Rowan

Okay. Why, though? Can you explain why those powers would turn into great powers on this world line? If they did not become great powers on our world line, can you tell me why?

Hard to say precisely. This is one of the areas of the world where the what-ifs are complicated, interrelated, and don't have many places where a single twist will change everything. Basically, though, there's nothing really preventing Africa from being the heartland of a great civilization. It's just that, in our timeline, Europe got there firstest with the mostest, and tended to screw everybody else. But if an alien visitor showed up in 1200 AD and tried to predict who would be the dominant culture in 800 years, they probably wouldn't be much more likely to pick Europe over Africa.
Heck, by 1350, in our timeline, the Mali Empire controlled a land area almost half the size of Europe. If I was doing an Infinite Worlds-style writeup of Homeline, c. 1250, Mali would be on the list of Great Powers.

Originally Posted by Rowan

It would help me to have a clearer picture if I understood what influences might have been key factors for them.

Islam was a big factor in the sub-Saharan areas, but just as much of the culture was local, and animism was still pretty big. If you know anything about Vodoun, most of the African cultural influences in it came from around this part of West Africa.

Originally Posted by Rowan

Perhaps, we might say that large plague outbreaks 'continue' in those areas for whatever reason? Lack of support networks, unified governments, political or cultural infighting, etc?

You could have a disease reservoir of some kind, allowing the plague to keep flaring up. My suggestion on that front would be either some sort of animal population (maybe for apes, this disease just makes them mildly ill, and a little more aggressive, and it only causes full-blown zombieism when one of them bites a human), or simply have it survive in the environment, outside of a host (perhaps the northern weather kills it, which is why there's no relics in northern Europe).

Originally Posted by Rowan

Okay then, that's a MAJOR problem them. We really, really need to find a way to ensure an unrecoverable wave of mass immigration from the asian lands into europe. Otherwise the European area will most certainly not collapse.

Mmm. Honestly, I think you'll do better simply abandoning the idea that it was immigration that caused the collapse. Mass movements of people a) don't tend to happen on the kind of scale you're talking about, and b) don't tend to cause the sort of collapse you seem to be looking for, anyway. Population movements tend to work more like a wave through a flexible medium: one group moves away from somewhere, and they displace the next group in that direction further, who in turn displace another group, and so forth, until the wave either runs out of steam, or it hits an impassable barrier. For example, people in eastern China might move a few hundred miles west, to escape a disaster. The people who were already living there when the refugees show up get pushed into central Asia. The central Asians move westward, into the Middle East and Russia. Russians move into central Europe. Central European groups move into western Europe. And so forth.
And even when the populations move and cause disruption, it's not really going to hideously depopulate a region, typically. Either the newcomers conquer the existing inhabitants, are repulsed, push the inhabitants out, or get assimilated into the population. Beyond the usual casualties of war (which are bad, but not usually enough to actually depopulate anywhere), the population numbers tend not to decrease, and may even grow.

I suggest, instead, that you have the disease being the primary killer, and simply have it reduce in lethality as it moves westward. Diseases do that - it's actually bad for a disease to kill its host too quickly, or with symptoms that are too obvious, since that reduces its chances of being passed on. If the disease kills, say, 50% of its victims and zombifies another 20% at its starting point in east Asia, but is only killing 35% and zombifying another 10% by the time it hits Europe, it's still bad enough to cause social turmoil and collapse, but it leaves you with a much more populated Europe than Asia.

Originally Posted by Rowan

I felt it was easier to use the term Spain, rather then to rattle off the various names of the patchworks. I have no idea, for instance, if those patchworks are all separate entities, or if they are together under some common 'banner'.

At the time we're talking about, there was some common identity, but they definitely weren't united. Basically, the Christian kingdoms of the north of the penninsula had been engaged in reconquering the south from the Muslims for at least three centuries. There would have been a sense of "we're all Christians together, not like those infidels to the south", but that didn't stop the countries from bickering between themselves.

Originally Posted by Rowan

I note on this map, that their is no Germany at this time as such, but a huge tract of land listed as the Holy Roman Empire,

The Holy Roman Empire/Germany was probably more unified, at your point of divergence, than pretty much any period until the 19th century. It still wasn't super-united, though. There were quite a few palatinates, duchies, baronies, etc. who were all fairly independent, and often paid only lip service to the Emperor. The German states are actually a very good example of one of the classic failure models of feudal nations. The Emperor didn't have the right to select his own heir. Instead, when an Emperor died, the various feudal lords elected a new Emperor from the eligible candidates, which put a lot of power in their hands. They maintained their own military forces, had mostly-independent justice systems, and so forth. Eventually, they just stopped bothering to elect Emperors at all.

Originally Posted by Rowan

and Italy as it appears is not so much Italy, but the Papal states along a small section of the 'boot', as it's sometimes called. =)

Italy, aside from the Papal States, was part of the Holy Roman Empire at the time, and it was even more independent than most of the German states.

[Kelly Pedersen]

Originally Posted by Rowan

It's just that Corsica doesn't seem to be very big to me. What sort of ability would they have to take and hold territory?

Well, it all depends. If they have to rely only on their own troops, probably not very. But remember that very small states have conquered very large states in the past. Alexander the Great's homeland of Macedonia was probably less than a tenth the size of Persia, for example. Successful conquerers recruit from the locals, though. When you've just had your homeland overrun, it's nice when the overrunner says "Okay, boys, you're an equal part of the empire now, lets go loot the people just over the border, who you have a grudge with anyway!". And don't forget, Corsica gave the world Napolean. :-)
I'm not being too terribly serious about Corsica, though, to be honest. It's a possible outcome, but not super plausible. I'd bet on one or the other of the countries on the Iberian peninsula getting their act together first.

Originally Posted by Rowan

Ya. Scandinavia is kind of the front runner right now for a civilization/major power to be honest. They would probably push east though right? Territory wise I mean?

Well, the Scandinavian nations have always had interests on the Baltic coasts. They'll go east, yeah, but I would definitely expect them to snatch up northern Germany, too. Whether they push south of that would depend on how you want things to go, basically. If you prefer Britain to be the clearly dominant power, having the more southern German states turn to it to protect them from Scandinavia is certainly plausible.

[Xenarthral]

Originally Posted by Rowan

Okay. Why, though? Can you explain why those powers would turn into great powers on this world line? If they did not become great powers on our world line, can you tell me why? It would help me to have a clearer picture if I understood what influences might have been key factors for them.

Not being overrun by zombies and refugees is a big part on why they could turn into great powers here - they're hard enough to reach that the zombies
might not get there, but not so isolated or distant that they can't take advantage and expand when things calm down.
Mali was just getting going at the time, but among the things it has or will
soon have* is a major center of islamic learning (Timbuktu), a greater
population (far more than Scandinavia), no or little technology lag and fewer
people coming to invade from the north.
13th century Ethiopia I have even less on, but it is in an easier location for
expansion (and escaping to).

But in comparison, all Unified Scandinavia has going for it regarding becoming
a great power is being Europeans. We were, I've been lead to believe, pretty
much a backwater even by medieval European standards.

Two things that have not been adressed yet:
a) the geography of China (in particular), depending on the zombies some
parts of China proper might do quite well. Especially if the Alps and the
Pyrenees are enough to keep them at bay in Europe.
b) the POD is at the height of the Mongol world tour (Genghis died in 1227 -
incidentally his wikipedia page has two maps of early 13th century Asia).

*The collapse up north might speed things along so that, for example, Mali gets control over Timbuktu earlier.

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Well, the Scandinavian nations have always had interests on the Baltic coasts. They'll go east, yeah, but I would definitely expect them to snatch up northern Germany, too.

It is not unreasonable to assume that the main reasons they went east (and
north) in OTL was partly what was in the other directions.

[Michele]

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

...

Interesting and informative post. I'm getting drawn into this alternate Earths business, I'm afraid.

It is not unreasonable to assume that the main reasons they went east (and
north) in OTL was partly what was in the other directions.

Yes. South was (relatively) overcrowded. If it's mostly empty, save for very small survivor settlements which can be easily taken over, plus empty cities to scavenge... fertile lands that have already been deforested, mines that have already been opened, and no owners...

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by Xenarthral

Two things that have not been adressed yet:
a) the geography of China (in particular), depending on the zombies some
parts of China proper might do quite well. Especially if the Alps and the
Pyrenees are enough to keep them at bay in Europe.

I was thinking about geography too. Islands keep getting mentioned as being safe from plague, but a lot of mountainous states would enjoy similar protection depending on the particular ways the plague spreads.

b) the POD is at the height of the Mongol world tour (Genghis died in 1227 -
incidentally his wikipedia page has two maps of early 13th century Asia).

...and I was thinking about the Mongol Empire too. Rowan's been sceptical of how Japan could be a world power at this time, but the Mongols managed to control pretty much all of Asia and a lot of Eastern Europe by the late 13th century, and they succeeded without needing their enemies to be weakened by some zombie plague.

Let's say the attempted Mongol Invasions of Japan, in 1274, led the Kamakura Shogun to organise a counterstrike against China, but when they arrived a year later they found the plague had decimated the population. The Japanese pick up the reins of the Khan's empire, and pretty soon you have samurai eating sushi on the Caspian Sea.

And at the risk of being a spoilsport- aren't you overthinking this? When will the game be set, during the 21st century? So all of this will be ancient history, and a lot of other stuff could have happened over the last 8 centuries. Just make a few broad brushstrokes, then decide how you want things to look now, and just fill in the rest with a few handwaves. You don't need to justify every bit of history. Britain controls Europe? Great. Did Venice survive? Doesn't matter.