GT:ISW -- How much of the Terrans' victory over the Ziru Sirka is owed to the Vargr?

[Hero of Canton]

At the prompting of my best buddy, "Buster the Wonder Dog", (my 8 year old Pitbull-Rottweiler-Doberman+15 Other Breeds sidekick) I been wondering if the Terrans really should thank their unknown furry allies, the Vargr, for their help in taking down the Vilani Imperium.

My readings of Traveller Canon, and of learned postings here, have led me to believe that the Terrans would have ultimately lost the Interstellar Wars had it not been for the Vargr attacking the Imperium at more-or-less the same time.

Granted, subject populations in revolt, rampant corruption, crippling inefficiency, and cutthroat disharmony among the Vilani ruling elite all played important roles in the epic "Hail Mary Pass" that was the Terran victory. However without the Vargr raiding deep into the Imperial Core I think sheer mathematics would have eventually doomed the Terrans' cause before the Meson Wonder Weapons and J3 Drives that spelt victory in the ISWs would have been invented/implemented.

What says the "Hive-Mind"? Should humanity's uplifted best friend share the glory for defeating the "Grand Empire of the Stars"?

Hero of Canton

[Hero of Canton]

Part of my reason for asking this is that I'm in the planning stages for a new Alternate Interstellar Wars Campaign. One major departure from Canon is to have Terran biotechnology be the origin of the Vargr (and possibly the Azlan as well). They would initially be combat bioroids to help make up the difference in numbers the Terrans are facing against the Ziru Sirka.

Hero of Canton

[Anthony]

I would consider the Vargr problems more a symptom of the general decay of the Ziru Sirka than a direct cause of Terran success; a more functional Ziru Sirka would probably have been successful against both threats.

[Randyman]

All of it, of course. The idea that the Terrans did anything other than move in to the vacuum of a collapsing Ziru Sirka is merely Solomani propaganda intended to bolster their clearly unsupportable supremacist doctrines.

[jason taylor]

Tartar style raiding is less feasible on an interstellar level when it depends so much on basing for the corsairs. It will be easy enough for the Vilani to locate the necessarily fixed bases and it can be responded to in kind by far heavier forces. By contrast the Terrans were able to take control of the economy and population of the Ziru Sirka. Deep Penetrations in the Terran case would not merely be piracy but a carefully worked project to maintain the initiative while they increased their presence in subsector after subsector encouraging mass defections. Furthermore there would have been constant economic competition so even cease-fires were a form of war whether the Terrans desired or not; the nature of the Villani economy made it vulnerable toward feeling the pressure.

Simple raiding is not enough to destroy an empire the size of the Ziru Sirku because there is always untouched resources in the rear to divert to parrying threats. Mere corsairs can only plausibly reach so far, and the more conveniently plundered planets will soon be scarce. The only example of a large space empire being destroyed was by tipping the population into defecting, that is in the ISW. The only way to do that is to have military resources enough to seize and hold forward bases to give a reasonable promise of protection. The Vargr cannot do that. In effect the Terrans most effective means of commerce raiding is not raiding per se but encouraging barratry. The Terrans can create a robust economy and recognize every defecting captain's free-and-clear rights to ownership within a subsector. As long as they can maintain enough force to prevent retaliation there will be plenty who will be willing. Within a few years, instead of destroying a subsector's economy they can co-opt it and by doing so co-opt an indifferent population. Planet bound authorities will take longer, being less mobile. But within fifteen years there will grow a generation in the subsector accustomed to seeing the Terrans rather then the Ziru Sirku as their government, at least if the Terrans are careful to avoid being overbearing. By corralary they will see any Vilani response as an invasion. Vargr have no such subtleties. They are just raiders and being so they will not get the advantages of hegemony over the area they attack, but rather they will just destroy it and send it's inhabitants off as refugees. The area raided cannot therefore support further ventures in the area behind the sector they attack; they will support most projects of that kind from the original area.

It is made clear in canon that the majority of the corsairs operated by collecting tribute with ships that were small by comparison and using WMDs on those that would not comply. A very cheap way of going about it from their point of view so long as defenses remained sparse. When the goal need shifted to building ships capable of operating for months and overcoming real resistance this would be different. Especially as the Vargr have no particular reason for striking against the Ziru Sirku. They are piratically not politically motivated and as soon as piracy required more overhead then the profit margin justified they will stop-or just pirate each other(which of course they would do anyway).

Furthermore, the Vargr simply do not have the military technology to compete with the Vilani on their own. Unless there is a distraction and possibly a supply of munitions they will be overwhelmed.

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

...Furthermore, the Vargr simply do not have the military technology to compete with the Vilani on their own. Unless there is a distraction and possibly a supply of munitions they will be overwhelmed.

So if IIUC what you mean is that the threat posed by the Terrans is what made the Vargr deep raids on the Vilani Core possible and so destabilizing. Or am I mistaken?

Hero of Canton

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

So if IIUC what you mean is that the threat posed by the Terrans is what made the Vargr deep raids on the Vilani Core possible and so destabilizing. Or am I mistaken?

Hero of Canton

Vargr raids of their neighbors are like thunderstorms in a Florida summer. You may not get one today but there'll be one soon and over the long term they're practically a regular occurrence.

So if the Ziru Sirka had survived thousands of years of Vargr raids what was different at the end?

Incidentally it's Terran survival of the early and mid-period Interstellar Wars that needs explanation. By the Ninth War when they have J-3 and the Meson Gun no special explanations for victory are needed. 50% greater strategic mobility and an unstoppable weapon are very much the sort of thing victories are made of.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

So if IIUC what you mean is that the threat posed by the Terrans is what made the Vargr deep raids on the Vilani Core possible and so destabilizing. Or am I mistaken?

Hero of Canton

Uh-huh. The Vargr would naturally raid as chance allowed. It's what they do. But they don't care about destabilizing the Ziru Sirku and are not going to do so unless perceived weakness gives them a chance to advance with greater profit. But it was the Terrans that enabled them to do so on ill-defended areas secure from retaliation.

[SteveS]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

. . .
Incidentally it's Terran survival of the early and mid-period Interstellar Wars that needs explanation. . . .

I think the contact plagues explain a lot. Every northern winter on Earth brings new natural biological weapons, soon carried away with traders. Ask any Vilani who commanded a ship as a fourth officer how effective his or her ship was when the captain and third officer were in the morgue and the first and second officers were in sick bay intensive care after someone came back from shore leave with influenza, and Terran survival makes more sense.

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

...So if the Ziru Sirka had survived thousands of years of Vargr raids what was different at the end?

I beg to differ amigo. It was within only 20-30 years of first Vilani contact with the Terrans that the Vargr first began raiding the Ziru Sirka. Essentially simultaneous in the grand timeline (see below).

Here's what I found over at wiki.travellerrpg.com/ "Vargr migrations around the Windhorn began around -2400, at the beginning of the Interstellar Wars with Terra, and the Vilani had to maintain forces on their coreward border to repel attacks by the aliens they called the urbarrani ("pack-predator barbarians"). Vargr actions undoubtedly hastened the collapse of authority in the Ziru Sirka, although the extent of this is probably overstated by Vargr historians."

Hence the core of my inquiry -- the 1st Imperium had to fight two barbarian menaces simultaneously on opposite ends of their territory. This two-front war exacerbated all of the problems the Grand Empire of the Stars was having already and helped bring it down. What I'm wondering is if the Vargr were seen as a bigger threat than the Terrans until it was too late (8th+ ISW).

I had posted my thread hoping to see if it would be possible to have a "Terrans Triumphant" outcome in the ISWs without the Canonical "Vargr Menace". I'm thinking not so much.

Hero of Canton