New Reality Seeds

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

When Tokugawa Ieyasu became the Shogun, Hideyoshi's conquest was a problem. It prevented any closing of Japan if they were going to keep control of Luzon. Just dumping the conquest would have been to dishonorable. So he kept them and a full closing of Japan never occurred.

It won't affect the outcome, but Japan's isolation was a reaction to Catholic missionary influence in the western hans. If it kicks out the Spanish colonials at this time, they'd probably handle the situation at home differently and it would never progress to the point where isolation is necessary.

[AlexanderHowl]

It was in response to the Jesuit reaction to the ban on the trade in Japanese slaves. The Jesuits tried to replace the Shogun with a leader more sympathetic to the slave trade and the Tokugawa did not look kindly on that. If the Jesuits had just accepted the ban on the Japanese slave trade and had not attempted to have the Christian daimyos rebel, the Tokugawa would have likely not closed off Japan. The fact that the Jesuits openly discussed helping the Unified Crown conquer Japan through converting the population to Catholicism also did not help matters.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

It was in response to the Jesuit reaction to the ban on the trade in Japanese slaves. The Jesuits tried to replace the Shogun with a leader more sympathetic to the slave trade and the Tokugawa did not look kindly on that. If the Jesuits had just accepted the ban on the Japanese slave trade and had not attempted to have the Christian daimyos rebel, the Tokugawa would have likely not closed off Japan. The fact that the Jesuits openly discussed helping the Unified Crown conquer Japan through converting the population to Catholicism also did not help matters.

Which suggests that a conquest of Luzon, showing how weak Spain was in East Asia, might have taught the Jesuits caution. But not likely.

Still, the point is weirdly cool Swashbucklers in the early 18th century.

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

The fact that the Jesuits openly discussed helping the Unified Crown conquer Japan through converting the population to Catholicism also did not help matters.

What's the Unified Crown?

[jeff_wilson]

Originally Posted by Daigoro

What's the Unified Crown?

Castille+Aragon, united by Phillip of Bourbon's victory in the War of Spanish Succession. This made a real, long-lasting kingdom of Spain rather than an on-again, off-again marriage arrangement like in Columbus' day.

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Which suggests that a conquest of Luzon, showing how weak Spain was in East Asia, might have taught the Jesuits caution. But not likely.

Might well have motivated them to try harder. But you have to wonder how much of that is just bad intelligence. Trying to conquer Japan, with like 3 times the population of Spain and little real deficit in military technology at that point, seems like it would be fairly optimistic if it were sitting just off the shore of Europe, never mind on the other side of the world. You have to wonder if the Jesuits actually pushing that as policy had a clear idea of how big Japan is. A lot of people seem fairly fuzzy on that even now. Or somehow thought it was a lot more primitive that it was. Presumably they'd have been stay-at-homes at the Spanish court who hadn't been there, and I'm not sure how many Europeans involved in colonial adventures had quite grasped that Asia wasn't the same kind of place as Africa or the Americas.

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by jeff_wilson

Castille+Aragon, united by Phillip of Bourbon's victory in the War of Spanish Succession. This made a real, long-lasting kingdom of Spain rather than an on-again, off-again marriage arrangement like in Columbus' day.

Ah, I see. I thought it was some reference to Tokugawa's rival, Hideyori Toyotomi. But anyway, I'd need to see some evidence that the ban on slavery was the main motivation for the Jesuits' activity. It was certainly a problem for the shoguns, but I can't find much saying that it was the prime reason, also considering that Japanese slaves were banned in Portugal at around that time.

[AlexanderHowl]

The Unified Crown refers to the Iberian Union of Portugal and Spain from 1580 to 1640. The Jesuits became phenomenally wealthy off the Japanese slave trade and did not care if Japanese slaves were banned by the Portuguese or the Japanese, as they made so much money that it was worth the risk of punishment. It was only by throwing out the Europeans and suppressing the Christians that the Japanese were finally able to stop the Japanese slave trade.

[Daigoro]

Interesting theory, but like I said, I couldn't find anything that gives the trade in Japanese slaves as much importance as you're giving it. Do you have some sources that go into that?

ETA: This article, for example, goes into depth on the Jesuit attempts to overtake Japan, but makes no mention of slavery at all.

[ericthered]

Returning to a moorish columbus.

During the 1400's, the only two countries in a good geographical position to send out ships are Granada and Morocco. I can't see Granada sparing the money (they're in desperate circumstances), but Morocco is traditionally the strongest state in the Maghreb.

If the Moors get to mexico, I have little doubt that follow the same route as the spainish before them, conquering the population and taking huge amounts of gold. Islamic tolerance at the time is not exceptional, but we're comparing them to the spainish conquistadors, so amerindian culture won't take nearly as hard a hit.

I expect Morocco to quickly absorb the rest of the Maghreb. At this point, each major city is its own kingdom, and has been since the last moorish empire fell apart 300 years before. The ottomans are at their peak, and in OTL conquer the Maghreb except for morocco, but never manage to solidify power there. Here, they might have a better chance of unifying, if only because nobles want to get a piece of the wealth flowing into the empire, and so support cultural unification.

Wars and alliances are tricky. A few thoughts:

• An influx of money is likely to mean an increased number of wars. That's just kind of how the world worked back then.
• The reaction to the ottomans matters a lot! The ottomans can either be seen as a principle ally or a principle foe. Which way will determine history.
• Spain is probably on its way to a temporary peak even without the new world. They'll end up as a Hapsburg possession even without the new world, I think. The Moroccans will want to at least reduce the power of their neighbor, and likely they'll want to take at least some port cities (as Portugal and Spain did to Morocco in our time line)
• Does the protestant reformation go off on schedule, and does the new muslim threat inspire any restraint?
• I see a lot fewer rivals for a world spanning empire than spain had. On the other hand, Europe may be able to get in on the action anyways.