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Old 08-04-2020, 06:31 AM   #31
Varyon
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by maximara View Post
IIUC one of the issues Intel is having at going below 14 nm is heat and in space heat is a problem as the only option for cooling things off is radiation. The x86 architecture hasn't exactly been cool (I still remember the jokes about the Pentium space hear with the very first PC to use that chip)
If your spaceship is one giant computer, sure. Otherwise, you can probably dump quite a bit of heat into the ship environs before it becomes an issue (particularly with a good cooling setup). I suspect the waste heat from your power plant sufficiently outstrips that of your onboard computers as to make the latter negligible to the ship as a whole. If this isnít the case, and your vessel has insufficient radiators, youíll probably have to temporarily reduce the power of your computers and/or other heat-generating systems from time to time.

All that said, I see nothing wrong with positing a hard-science future with weaker-than-expected computer technology. Even if youíre wrong, itís unlikely to be the most important thing you ďmess up,Ē because the future isnít exactly easy to predict.
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:56 AM   #32
Fred Brackin
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by Say, it isn't that bad! View Post
I don't have Spaceships 5. Some silly person instead bought "Pyramid 3/051: Tech and Toys III". *Cough* e.
I looked at your design late last night and it's actually almost as good as you could get at your SM. It has PF 750 or 7.5 against cosmic rays. It'd be better though if you swapped the fusion reactor and the habitat. persons in Core habitats or Control rooms get double protection. I think you'd be at PF 1800 or 18 v. cosmic rays.

The radiation rules are tricky but if all the time was spent in ships this well protected you could go about 3 and 1/2 years without rolling for radiation sickness. You could double that by taking Antirad (the version in Bio-tech) which would give PF 2 (not divided by cosmic rays) to add on.

After you do start rollling, if you have HT people half of them get sick and 2% of them get very sick and in a couple of years some of them die from cancer (technically the Terninally Ill disad).

A setting with mature TL9 Bio-tech can cure cancer and reset the radiation count but both are quite expensive and require hospital facilities (this is in the Gene Therapy section of Bio-tech).

TL10 brings you abetter version of Antirad and portable cancer and radiation cures for half the TL9 price. The big thing though is the ability to genetically engineer parahumans who have Regeneration(Radiation Only) 4pts. With that Ad you cna ignore thwe cosmic radiation stuff. You still can't go into Jupiter's inner radiation belt but you might be able to colonize Ganymede and Callisto.

So I'd make your setting TL10 in Bio-tech (at least) and your Belters and peopel further out be parahumans with space adaptations.
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Old 08-04-2020, 08:08 AM   #33
AlexanderHowl
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

Quote:
Originally Posted by Say, it isn't that bad! View Post
It appears that, for cosmic rays, an active electrostatic field could provide "viable" protection:

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/c...0090022229.pdf

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/718390main_...Protection.pdf
Yeah, NASA has been going back and forth about the costs-benefits of 'active' shielding forever and a day, but they inevitably find that it ends up costing much more mass to supply the power and/or fuel. In the case of the latter article, the author ignores that, while the majority of cosmic rays are relativistic helium atoms, the majority of the damage comes from relativistic iron atoms, so the design would only give a PF of 2 against cosmic radiation. This is why the designs in the 1970s rejected active shielding in favor of passive shielding.

In addition, you need large spacecraft to have effective spin gravity and you need a diversity of capabilities and relationships among the crew to allow for successful missions. When sending people beyond the Earth-Luna system, you will probably need a minimum people of 40 individuals, just to cover enough bases, and that would not really allow for long term relationship stability. You would need around 400 people for a mission of longer than a year, as that gives a properly selected crew psychological stability.

In the case of the SM+14 spaceship, you can design a spacecraft capable of transporting 2,000 passengers and 100,000 tons of cargo for ~$20 billion. With High Automation, it would require a crew of 1,000, and it would be capable of in-situ resource exploitation, allowing it to refuel within about a month. It could get to Saturn in two years, spend six months in Saturn orbit for refueling, spend two years traveling to Earth, and spend six months in Earth orbit before repeating the process. While it would effectively end up costing $200,000 per ton of cargo delivered to Saturn orbit, when you include capital repayment and other costs, it is probably a lot more cost effective than any other design.
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Old 08-04-2020, 11:32 AM   #34
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by Varyon View Post
All that said, I see nothing wrong with positing a hard-science future with weaker-than-expected computer technology. Even if youíre wrong, itís unlikely to be the most important thing you ďmess up,Ē because the future isnít exactly easy to predict.
I, personally, am not sure if the "soft wall" theory is the correct one; the choice made is a stylistic one. I have fond memories of books set in a near-future colonized solar system. :)
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Old 08-04-2020, 12:06 PM   #35
AlexanderHowl
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

A lot of them were probably using the assumption of TL7 space colonization, so TL9 by 2200 AD might not have seemed all that unreasonable. With sufficient investment, you can reach Mars with TL7 technology (we did it in real life), it just takes a really long time. The point still stands that bigger is almost always better when it comes to manned spaceships, as larger spaceships provide more radiation shielding and higher spin gravity.

By TL9, fusion rockets allow people to go anywhere in the Sol System without Hohmann transfers, which cut transportation times greatly. In the case of going to Saturn, it quarters the time required. If you are going to Uranus or Neptune, it cuts the time even more, as the Hohmann transfers take 21 years for Uranus and 42 years for Neptune (contemporary probes do not use Hohmann transfers for such missions, as the technology just does not have the lifespan). Of course, in situ resource utilization is a requirement, as is total life support, as the missions are otherwise too long for humans.

If you wanted a Neptune colony mission, the costs would probably be $400,000 per ton of cargo, since the ship will likely not return soon enough for a route to be economical. Now, you could have the colony give the crew the spaceship in lieu of salaries, in which the crew probably transforms it into a clan ship. If there was a major puah, with one such ship produced every year for a century, you could have a hundred clan ships traveling through the Sol System, going from Earth to Neptune every fourteen years. As long as the clans make enough to survive, I doubt that will care much about the economic viability of the model.

Similar clans could work the Earth-Main Belt, Earth-Jupiter Trojan, Earth-Saturn, and Earth-Uranus routes (Earth-Mars is too close for such spaceships to remain independent). After a century, every clan ship would have its own customs and traditions, though they would likely marry outsiders to prevent inbreeding.
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Old 08-04-2020, 12:08 PM   #36
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Brackin View Post
I looked at your design late last night and it's actually almost as good as you could get at your SM. It has PF 750 or 7.5 against cosmic rays. It'd be better though if you swapped the fusion reactor and the habitat. persons in Core habitats or Control rooms get double protection. I think you'd be at PF 1800 or 18 v. cosmic rays.
Thanks. I had that thought while drifting off, as it has a number of systems that provide radiation protection.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Brackin View Post
The radiation rules are tricky but if all the time was spent in ships this well protected you could go about 3 and 1/2 years without rolling for radiation sickness. You could double that by taking Antirad (the version in Bio-tech) which would give PF 2 (not divided by cosmic rays) to add on.
Since Solar War I is between Earth-Mars and (mostly) the Inner Belt, and since its role is to *defend Earth and Mars, rather than to attack, the crew is unlikely to spend nearly that much time exposed to dangerous levels of radiation.

According to the quick spreadsheet I wrote for reaction drive travel, it's 21 days from Earth to Mars, and 89 days from Earth to Ceres/the Inner Belt, spending 38 mps on acceleration and deceleration.

If it spends only 19 mps (edit: on acceleration or deceleration; 38 mps total for the round-trip), it can make a round trip to and from Earth and Mars at 53 days, or a round trip to and from Earth and Ceres at 190 days. That makes it less than optimal on attack, since 190 days is plenty of time to concentrate defensive force.

* It needs a refuelling station at the end, or to only spend 19 mps on acceleration and deceleration, total. This could be fixed with a robofactory of some sort...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Brackin View Post
After you do start rollling, if you have HT people half of them get sick and 2% of them get very sick and in a couple of years some of them die from cancer (technically the Terninally Ill disad).

A setting with mature TL9 Bio-tech can cure cancer and reset the radiation count but both are quite expensive and require hospital facilities (this is in the Gene Therapy section of Bio-tech).

TL10 brings you abetter version of Antirad and portable cancer and radiation cures for half the TL9 price. The big thing though is the ability to genetically engineer parahumans who have Regeneration(Radiation Only) 4pts. With that Ad you cna ignore thwe cosmic radiation stuff. You still can't go into Jupiter's inner radiation belt but you might be able to colonize Ganymede and Callisto.

So I'd make your setting TL10 in Bio-tech (at least) and your Belters and peopel further out be parahumans with space adaptations.
Another possibility is that Belter ships and stations are rather large, which is an idea I was thinking about already - after all, they don't have to lift material out of any (significant) gravity well.

Although most of the Earth-Mars Alliance ships would be built in space, the Belters just have a lot more space rocks to play with.

Last edited by Say, it isn't that bad!; 08-04-2020 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 08-04-2020, 12:15 PM   #37
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
Yeah, NASA has been going back and forth about the costs-benefits of 'active' shielding forever and a day, but they inevitably find that it ends up costing much more mass to supply the power and/or fuel. In the case of the latter article, the author ignores that, while the majority of cosmic rays are relativistic helium atoms, the majority of the damage comes from relativistic iron atoms, so the design would only give a PF of 2 against cosmic radiation. This is why the designs in the 1970s rejected active shielding in favor of passive shielding.
Ah. Yeah, if it costs much more mass to supply the fuel/power for the active electrostatic shielding than you'd save by having active electrostatic shielding, then it's not worth it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
In addition, you need large spacecraft to have effective spin gravity and you need a diversity of capabilities and relationships among the crew to allow for successful missions. When sending people beyond the Earth-Luna system, you will probably need a minimum people of 40 individuals, just to cover enough bases, and that would not really allow for long term relationship stability. You would need around 400 people for a mission of longer than a year, as that gives a properly selected crew psychological stability.
With a fusion rocket, a trip from Earth to Mars would be short enough that you wouldn't need spin gravity. However, fusion rockets seem more of a 2075+ thing, at current speed in fusion research.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
In the case of the SM+14 spaceship, you can design a spacecraft capable of transporting 2,000 passengers and 100,000 tons of cargo for ~$20 billion. With High Automation, it would require a crew of 1,000, and it would be capable of in-situ resource exploitation, allowing it to refuel within about a month. It could get to Saturn in two years, spend six months in Saturn orbit for refueling, spend two years traveling to Earth, and spend six months in Earth orbit before repeating the process. While it would effectively end up costing $200,000 per ton of cargo delivered to Saturn orbit, when you include capital repayment and other costs, it is probably a lot more cost effective than any other design.
The SpaceX Falcon, according to a google search, would cost $3,295,056.36 to launch a short ton into orbit, so I feel that $200,000 per short ton to Saturn is an entirely reasonable cost, here. :D
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Old 08-04-2020, 12:24 PM   #38
Say, it isn't that bad!
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
A lot of them were probably using the assumption of TL7 space colonization, so TL9 by 2200 AD might not have seemed all that unreasonable. With sufficient investment, you can reach Mars with TL7 technology (we did it in real life), it just takes a really long time. The point still stands that bigger is almost always better when it comes to manned spaceships, as larger spaceships provide more radiation shielding and higher spin gravity.

By TL9, fusion rockets allow people to go anywhere in the Sol System without Hohmann transfers, which cut transportation times greatly. In the case of going to Saturn, it quarters the time required. If you are going to Uranus or Neptune, it cuts the time even more, as the Hohmann transfers take 21 years for Uranus and 42 years for Neptune (contemporary probes do not use Hohmann transfers for such missions, as the technology just does not have the lifespan). Of course, in situ resource utilization is a requirement, as is total life support, as the missions are otherwise too long for humans.

If you wanted a Neptune colony mission, the costs would probably be $400,000 per ton of cargo, since the ship will likely not return soon enough for a route to be economical. Now, you could have the colony give the crew the spaceship in lieu of salaries, in which the crew probably transforms it into a clan ship. If there was a major puah, with one such ship produced every year for a century, you could have a hundred clan ships traveling through the Sol System, going from Earth to Neptune every fourteen years. As long as the clans make enough to survive, I doubt that will care much about the economic viability of the model.

Similar clans could work the Earth-Main Belt, Earth-Jupiter Trojan, Earth-Saturn, and Earth-Uranus routes (Earth-Mars is too close for such spaceships to remain independent). After a century, every clan ship would have its own customs and traditions, though they would likely marry outsiders to prevent inbreeding.
I like all of this in general, although I will probably not use as-is. I really like the idea of Belter clans. Combine that idea with monetary net worth = voting shares, and you get a quite "alien" culture that makes sense within its context.

I think I will have Belters start making their own ships perhaps about 40? years in. That's enough for an entire generation to grow up with no memories of Earth, wonder why they don't build their own ships, learn the skills necessary to build their own ships, and then build the facilities to do so.
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Old 08-04-2020, 12:25 PM   #39
Anthony
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
Yeah, NASA has been going back and forth about the costs-benefits of 'active' shielding forever and a day, but they inevitably find that it ends up costing much more mass to supply the power and/or fuel.
Well, some of that has to do with scale. Mass requirements for mass shielding vary with surface area, mass requirement for electromagnetic shielding (applies to both magnetic shields and electrostatic shields) vary with diameter, so electromagnetic shielding wins for sufficiently large scale vessels and habitats.
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Old 08-04-2020, 01:19 PM   #40
Flyndaran
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Default Re: In which I post about a TL9 solar system

Any idea on where that break point would lie? It would make for some nice setting background depending on the rarity of the large ships.
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