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Old 01-11-2018, 12:02 AM   #171
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by Tomsdad View Post
Also this tangent of pistol vs. rifle came up explicitly when the point about C20th cavalry pistols came up.
It didn't 'come up', you brought it up. I'm endeavoring to put it back down.
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Old 01-11-2018, 12:05 AM   #172
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by Minuteman37 View Post
...

Also the american, Russian, and German bolt-action rifles were all 5(3), so lets trim this down to five shots to begin with for historical accuracy.
bolt action rifles with more shots are not uncommon though, the SMLE that you mentioned earlier was 10, the French had 8 and a lot of other rifles at the time had extended magazine versions as well. Basically 5(3) isn't an inherent technical limitation to bolt action rifles of the time.

EDIT: sorry I didn't realy get into the cavalry vs rifles thing as lets face it I've already clogged this thread up enough with that, but basically it's what I was discussing earlier

Last edited by Tomsdad; 01-11-2018 at 05:25 AM.
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Old 01-11-2018, 12:10 AM   #173
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth View Post
It didn't 'come up', you brought it up. I'm endeavoring to put it back down.
Because it was brought up to me, you chose to tack on to it and run on with it. I'd already made the same point you did in that pistol range is mostly irrelevant, especially on a charging horse (but it does give options in close combat vs. bolt action rifles).

Basically you put it back down after picking it up from the same spot I had left it!
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Old 01-11-2018, 12:14 AM   #174
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by Tomsdad View Post
Because it was brought up to me, you chose to tack on to it and run on with it. I'd already made the same point you did in that pistol range is mostly irrelevant, especially on a charging horse (but it does give options in close combat vs. bolt action rifles).

Basically you put it back down after picking it up from the same spot I had left it!
...I do not see that in the posts, but whatever. You're saying the past several posts of vigorous argument about whether pistol range is relevant has been you trying to agree that it is not?
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Old 01-11-2018, 12:18 AM   #175
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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We can figure out bolt action rifle vs cavalry charge in GURPS reasonably easily.

We'll assume a 400 yard charge and the 7.62mm bolt-action rifle on Basic p.279. We'll assume a cavalry horse (Move 8/16, BL 96), and that the rider (including gear and saddle) has a total weight exceeding 192 lb, so Move is 9.6, we'll call it 10 for simplicity. Our hypothetical gunners will aim for 4 seconds and fire. Since we only have 5+1 shots, we either wait to start shooting until 300 yards, or we have to reload once; we'll assume we start shooting at 300 yards, so we have shots at 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, and 50 yards, or to simplify range/speed charge stuff, 290, 240, 190, 140, 90, and 40 yards. We are shooting at horses, so all shots start with a +9 modifier (+1 for SM, +5 for Acc, +3 for 4s aim time). Total modifiers are:
290 yards: -4
240 yards: -4
190 yards: -3
140 yards: -2
90 yards: -1
40 yards: +1

For a skill 12 shooter (generic trained), our hit chances are 8-, 8-, 9-, 10-, 11-, and 13-. Expected number of hits is 2.8. The horses have dodge 8, which will cut the expected number of hits to 2.1.

This will not end well for the cavalry.
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Originally Posted by sir_pudding View Post
All out Attack (Determined) and braced should give +1 each.
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Originally Posted by Anthony View Post
Good point. Increase average hits to 4.2, or 3.1 after dodge. Note that target selection is going to be a problem, there is a high probability of multiple people aiming at the same person, which will reduce effectiveness, but it's still not good for cavalry.
Yep nice

As per the link earlier Napoleonic cavalry seems to have charged at about 12mph which is what Mv6?

Certainly not as fast as they could go but done in order not to blow their horses, risk a tumble in battlefield ground conditions and to maintain formation and not end up strung out. Although I can imagine C20th cavalry might risk pushing the speed up a bit if their facing that level of fire.

As an aside would you allow a dodge against incoming bullets, they can't really be aware of individual attacks coming at them can they?

Last edited by Tomsdad; 01-11-2018 at 12:27 AM.
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Old 01-11-2018, 01:57 AM   #176
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by tshiggins View Post
So, if 20,000 troops make up about two percent of the villain's available population, then he has about 1 million people under his control. Moreover, to sustain that, he needs what would count as a fairly wealthy and stable economy -- not something enjoyed by most tyrants, although it's certainly not unprecedented.

So, the guy isn't just a talented military commander, he's a talented Field Marshal-caliber officer ("Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics, and Field Marshals study economics...") with a flair for inspiring loyalty in others.

This guy makes Adolf look like a piker, he's clearly read every one of the Rules for Evil Overlords, and he adheres to them, scrupulously.

I say again, cut Lex Luthor a check, keep your heads down, and wait for this nightmarishly-effective warlord to kick the bucket. Once he goes, his gunpowder empire is quite likely to break like glass, because guys with his combination of natural talent and ethical bankruptcy (fortunately) only appear about once a century -- if that.
I see where our miscommunication came from.

It's 20,000 civilians in his fledgling nation. The Army is only a medium sized Battalion of roughly 500.
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Old 01-11-2018, 06:13 AM   #177
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There are 40 seconds between the start of the charge and impact. A muzzleloading musket - or rifled musket if using Minie balls - takes 20 seconds to reload using paper cartridges, or 15 seconds with a successful Fast-Draw (Ammo) roll. Facing a cavalry charge with muskets means you'll need to affix your bayonet at some point, so we'll leave 4 seconds for that (firing with attached bayonet reduces skill, so you'd wait until you're done shooting). An added snag is that the bullets already in the musket when the engagement starts are likely to have been carefully loaded, for +1 Acc.

If you opt for a reload, that gives you 2 shots. You want to start affixing bayonets at the latest 5 seconds before impact (meaning bayonets are fixed and ready 1 second out, giving your soldiers enough time for Wait (Stop Thrust)). That means the second shot is 6 seconds out, when the cavalry is roughly 60 yards away (which rounds up to 70 yards). That means you start Aiming 10 seconds out, for 3 seconds of Aim* and one second to fire. Thus, your first shot was 26 seconds out if you trust your troops to reload in only 15 seconds, 31 seconds out otherwise. We'll assume 30 seconds or fewer, for 300 yards. If you don't opt for a reload, you get one shot at 100 yards.

For a typical Acc 2 musket (Acc 3 for the first shot), that's a choice of either two shots, one at a net -6 (+3 for Acc, +2 for extra Aim, +1 for All Out, +1 SM -13 for Range) and the other at a net -3 (+2 Acc, +2 Aim, +1 AOA, +1 SM, -9 Range), or one shot at a net -2 (+3 Acc, +2 Aim, +1 AOA, +1 SM -9 Range). An Acc 3 rifled musket is the same, but at +1 in each case.

For skill 12 and a musket, that means a shot at 6 and one at 9 (~0.4675 hits between the two), or a single shot at 10 (~0.5 hits). For skill 12 and a rifle, that means a shot at 7 and one at 10 (~0.662 hits), or a single shot at 11 (~0.625 hits). When Dodge 8 comes into play, these drop to around 0.35, 0.37, 0.49, and 0.46, respectively. Cavalry is in much better shape than it was against those 7.62 bolt-actions, but with equal numbers the cavalry is potentially looking at between 35% and 50% casualties** even before having to face down bayonets set against the charge.

....

**3d+2 pi+, as for a Pattern 1853 Enfield (used heavily in the American Civil War, at least according to High Tech), means an average of 12.5 damage. On a hit to the Leg or Foot, that cripples the limb, causing the horse to fall. On a hit to the Torso, Neck, or Face, that increases to 18.75 Injury, calls for a roll against 11 to avoid falling down (due to being a Major Wound), and halves the horse's Move and Dodge (due to being below 30% HP). On a hit to the Vitals (which happens to one in six of the horses shot in the Torso), you're instead looking at 37.5 Injury, for a Death Check besides, and if the horse keeps charging it has to make an HT roll every second to not pass out. On a hit to the Skull, that's 42 Injury, for a roll against 1 to avoid Knockdown/Stunning, and just shy of 2 Death Checks. My 35%-50% estimate assumed every horse hit would be a casualty, which isn't quite accurate (particularly considering the possibility of low damage rolls), but it's still not looking great for the horses. Barding for the horses will make them more likely to shrug off the hit, of course.
Nice write up! Interesting stuff on the damage stopping the charge. In comparative terms the TL6 rifle works well here too. As at 7d there's about a 75% chance that just a standard torso hit knocks a ST22 horse to 0 HP or less.

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Originally Posted by Varyon View Post
*Aim caps out at Acc+2, for 3 seconds of aiming. I think Anthony conflated the +1 for All Out into his Acc+3 assumption.
I think it's not a problem for Anthony as he's going with Acc 5 rifles, so if you have the time you'll always be able to access the Acc+3 for 4 seconds aiming. (Is that what you meant?)

Last edited by Tomsdad; 01-11-2018 at 06:33 AM.
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Old 01-11-2018, 06:21 AM   #178
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony View Post
We can figure out bolt action rifle vs cavalry charge in GURPS reasonably easily.

We'll assume a 400 yard charge and the 7.62mm bolt-action rifle on Basic p.279. We'll assume a cavalry horse (Move 8/16, BL 96), and that the rider (including gear and saddle) has a total weight exceeding 192 lb, so Move is 9.6, we'll call it 10 for simplicity. Our hypothetical gunners will aim for 4 seconds and fire. Since we only have 5+1 shots, we either wait to start shooting until 300 yards, or we have to reload once; we'll assume we start shooting at 300 yards, so we have shots at 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, and 50 yards, or to simplify range/speed charge stuff, 290, 240, 190, 140, 90, and 40 yards. We are shooting at horses, so all shots start with a +9 modifier (+1 for SM, +5 for Acc, +3 for 4s aim time). Total modifiers are:
290 yards: -4
240 yards: -4
190 yards: -3
140 yards: -2
90 yards: -1
40 yards: +1

For a skill 12 shooter (generic trained), our hit chances are 8-, 8-, 9-, 10-, 11-, and 13-. Expected number of hits is 2.8. The horses have dodge 8, which will cut the expected number of hits to 2.1.

This will not end well for the cavalry.
I see a few gaping holes in your scenario:

1) RPG's often struggle with simulating mass combat realistically. This is generally because of issues with morale and willingness to kill. Big blocks of men don't annihilate each other in 15 seconds of close combat, and an awful lot of soldiers historically didn't shoot to kill. I say historically because after Vietnam modern armies started actually conditioning people so they wouldn't have those problems. Most soldiers just fire in the general direction of the enemy.

2) you're holding the battle on an featureless plain, and in modern war such a battlefield is rare enough to be notable, and a special case. Oddly enough, these cavalry WANT cover. They don't rely on a firm formation, so the cover doesn't hurt them, and it protects them from bullets. a quarter mile is not the distance you want to be charging. Next time you're out doors, look around and think about how you would try to move a group of horse into combat range with infantry in that area, and see how far it is. Notice just how much terrain is around.

3) is more of a quibble, but I think skill 12 is high. Skill 11 or 10 is more likely unless you've got pretty good troops.
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Old 01-11-2018, 07:08 AM   #179
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by ericthered View Post
I see a few gaping holes in your scenario:

1) RPG's often struggle with simulating mass combat realistically. This is generally because of issues with morale and willingness to kill. Big blocks of men don't annihilate each other in 15 seconds of close combat, and an awful lot of soldiers historically didn't shoot to kill. I say historically because after Vietnam modern armies started actually conditioning people so they wouldn't have those problems. Most soldiers just fire in the general direction of the enemy.
If you are referencing the stuff by S.L.A Marshall (post WW2) you have to be a bit careful it was to be blunt a bit overstated.

If nothing else even Marshall made allowance for situations were there was an immediate threat to life that you had to shoot your way out off (such as cavalry bearing down on you, that will only be driven off or stopped by weight of fire)

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Originally Posted by ericthered View Post
2) you're holding the battle on an featureless plain, and in modern war such a battlefield is rare enough to be notable, and a special case. Oddly enough, these cavalry WANT cover. They don't rely on a firm formation, so the cover doesn't hurt them, and it protects them from bullets. a quarter mile is not the distance you want to be charging. Next time you're out doors, look around and think about how you would try to move a group of horse into combat range with infantry in that area, and see how far it is. Notice just how much terrain is around.
Thing is with that units of cavalry are not exactly stealthy 300-400 yards is within the effective range of these rifles, assuming your cavalry are going to be able to sneak up, form up and start a charge within that range while not getting spotted and shot at is a bit optimistic without a lucky set of variables in play.

Now yes of course terrain will effect how close you get before it kicks off, but actually cavalry don't move that well in tight terrain*. And a quarter mile charge is historically not out of the ordinary. We Talked about the charge of the light brigade earlier, that was done over a 3/4 mile distance

C20th engagements (unless in terrain like jungles, trenches, boccage or built up areas etc) tended to take place at longer ranges than historical ones.

Ultimately you're right terrain is a huge factor but in many places a quarter mile isn't very much. But yeah it's going matter weather we're fighting in the jungle highlands of Vietnam or the central Hungarian plain.

Either way if you crunch those numbers most of the damage is done as the range reduces (as the shots become easier). So actually once the range closes you can start increasing your rate of fire by shaving off some of those extra aim actions that are only bringing you an extra +1 each. I don't think it's a massive stretch to imagine the temptation to increase rate of fire at a slight cost in accuracy as those big chaps with big swords start getting closer and closer to you ;-)!



*and while yes in theory cavalry might be able to sneak up and surprise someone from cover and tight terrain, but they also risk having the same done to them as well (cover works in both directions) and well again cavalry are not that sneaky


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Originally Posted by ericthered View Post
3) is more of a quibble, but I think skill 12 is high. Skill 11 or 10 is more likely unless you've got pretty good troops.

12 is base line professional.
I agree not all troops would have it, but to assume less is to assume your fighting less than average troops. Which yeah I agree is a good situation to be in, but a bit of an assumption that you'll be in it.

But OK drop a point off skill but add back in the AoD +1 and bracing +1 as sir pudding pointed out

Last edited by Tomsdad; 01-11-2018 at 08:34 AM.
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Old 01-11-2018, 08:29 AM   #180
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Default Re: Logistically Viable Weapons AtE

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Originally Posted by Minuteman37 View Post
I see where our miscommunication came from.

It's 20,000 civilians in his fledgling nation. The Army is only a medium sized Battalion of roughly 500.
Yep. I badly misread. That guy is much more beatable, and I find it quite believable that someone such as him could rise to control a community equal to a decent-sized farming town. :)
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