New Reality Seeds

[Prince Charon]

Originally Posted by malloyd

The US refused to consider anything but "unconditional surrender", but you'll note that once they got it the Emperor wasn't deposed, nor for that matter were any of the Home Islands taken away or surrendered to the Communists.

Handing them over to the Communists was never in the cards, not with the political environment of America at the time (which is also why anything other than unconditional surrender was politically impossible to offer), and deposing or trying the Emperor was (correctly, as best I can tell) judged as a terrible idea that would turn Japan into America's Northern Ireland, but far worse.

[Phil Masters]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

It doesn't make sense of course. There are much more frightening things that Infinity has encountered and not reacted that way.

Aside from which, Infinity is basically entirely staffed by people indoctrinated with the idea that one should protect with one's life that which Infinity says should be secret. Coventry'ing agents who've just seen something worrying is kind of clueless.

I'm also not sure what a TL(0+10) biotech-based space-faring civilisation would look like. Lotta space whales, I guess.

[Phil Masters]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Roosevelt-5 is a Q5 time line where President Roosevelt allowed significantly more Jews to immigrate to the USA before WW II in order to the facilitate capital flows into the USA. With a more open USA, ninety percent of the Jews in Western and Southern Europe (as well as significant numbers of Jews in the rst of Europe) immigrated to the USA before 1939 as they witnessed in horror the treatment of Jews in Germany.

I could believe some, but 90%? Leaving countries where they grew up, have connections and sentimental attachments, and speak the language, for one where they don't? Because of stuff happening in a third country which may even be politically opposed to the one where they are currently living fairly happily? People are notoriously unwilling to leave places where they are settled in the face of quite immediate threats, let alone stuff as relatively abstract as this.

On top of which, faced with significant outflows of capital and skilled labour, a lot of European countries are going to bring in laws of one sort or another to stem the tide -- if they don't have them already. Free movement of capital isn't exactly a universal ideal at that date.

German Jews took advantage of the openness of the USA by illegally smuggling billions of dollars of assets out of Germany. By the time that the Nazis attempted to nationalize Jewish assets in 1938, the vast majority of German Jews had already escaped with their wealth without the Nazis being aware of the deception.

Well, you've just assumed the existence of an insanely, implausibly efficient and cunning German Jewish-capitalist conspiracy with at least the incidental goal of undermining the German state. I'm not 100% sure that validating Nazi paranoia, in detail, is a great way to undermine Nazi ideology...

Without the hindrance of the Nazis Party, the German Junta waged a frighteningly effective conquest of Europe.

While the German military might have been willing to turn against Hitler, having him down as an ass from early on, I'm not sure that they'd have picked a fight with France, Britain, and Russia. I rather think that one of the reasons they had him down as a nut was his willingness to roll the dice like that. Later, maybe, but in the early '40s? With an economy hamstrung by the disappearance of all those Jewish-owned businesses and their money?

In is now 1955 and the technocratic German junta dominates Europe, North Asia, North Africa, Central Asia, and Southwest Asia (the USA helped the European colonies outside those regions gain their independence before the German Junta could consolidate power after Japan surrendered in 1943).

I'm not sure what prior events would do to the chance of Germany constructing a technocratic system. You've got a bunch of traditionalist Prussian militarists running things instead of a romantic loon who'd dump money into big science programs (and not many Jewish scientists or engineers).

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by Phil Masters

Aside from which, Infinity is basically entirely staffed by people indoctrinated with the idea that one should protect with one's life that which Infinity says should be secret. Coventry'ing agents who've just seen something worrying is kind of clueless.

I'm also not sure what a TL(0+10) biotech-based space-faring civilisation would look like. Lotta space whales, I guess.

It's always space whales. We need more space dragons. Space squid. Space jellyfish.

[AlexanderHowl]

Biologically derived ceramics or improved versions chitin would probably be the basic structural elements in space in a TL(0+10) civilization. Selective breeding might have resulted in the development of progressively stronger animal and plant materials until the advent of genetic engineering. With genetic engineering, you would gain access to bioelectrical and biooptical phenomena, as well as everything else possible at TL10.

[scc]

Originally Posted by Phil Masters

I could believe some, but 90%? Leaving countries where they grew up, have connections and sentimental attachments, and speak the language, for one where they don't? Because of stuff happening in a third country which may even be politically opposed to the one where they are currently living fairly happily? People are notoriously unwilling to leave places where they are settled in the face of quite immediate threats, let alone stuff as relatively abstract as this.

On top of which, faced with significant outflows of capital and skilled labour, a lot of European countries are going to bring in laws of one sort or another to stem the tide -- if they don't have them already. Free movement of capital isn't exactly a universal ideal at that date.

Keep in mind that this is the 1930's, of all the places for money to move to the US would be the worst.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Try this idea, a group of interlopers from a parallel outside of the normal Quantum system think they've traveled back in time to the 1930s. They've really landed a Q6 parallel in January of the local year 1937. They go to FDR and explain the events of the future (or what they think of as the future to him) and they offer him large amounts of TL10 aid. They come from a world were democracy was rubbed out and oligarchic plutocratic tyranny was the normal order of the day. They want to remake the world as a better freer New Deal USA.

Centrum sees them as escapees from a final war (not so far off) and feels they are doing something good. Besides they hope to steal advanced tech as it becomes public. The Cabal, not particularly into tech, still sees a shot at profit and advantage. Many Swagmen see a chance to scam good tech. Homeline sees a possible mess they might get hurt by.

Within this parallel, many southern congressmen dislike these Futuremen who talk of the need to get beyond racism for the good of the country. Even those willing to believe these people are telling the truth are too committed to the "Southern Way of Life," to easily accept change. Many others in America also fear the coming transformations.

Much of the rest of the world also dislikes the FUTURMEN! Britain and France resent that the USA is picked as the champion of democracy, and that colonialism is seem as a disease. The USSR is bitter that they weren't picked as the only true future! Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan, all seethe with rage that they are openly dismissed as moral failures.

The transformations of American society and industry as they skip tech levels and embrace biotech and cyber-tech both terrify and enthrall the world. It's 1939 and FDR has announced the lunch of the world's first orbital satellite. It will be used to help predict the weather and search for minerals and other resources.

Does Homeline allow this parallel to become a wild card of terrifying proportions, or do they try to aid America's foes to bring her down? No good choices here.

Further details, the FUTUREMEN have tech level 10 biotech. When FDR announced that satellite at the World's Fair, he strided boldly up to the TV carmeras, they boardcast the opening of the World's Fair on TV in our 1939, and everybody could see FDR walking. The promises of the medical skills of the FUTUREMEN are profound and profoundly disruptive. National Healthcare is said to be vital to getting the benefits of these astounding medical skills. FDR got it though congress with provisions forbiding segregation. There have been riots, the KuKlux Klan is up in arms, but people demand this amazing new health care as soon as doctors can retrain.

Note the FUTUREMEN have advanced pedagogy, they are teaching thousands of doctors and nurses TL 10 skills.

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by PTTG

Here's one for you. This worldline diverged thanks to a chain of critical mistakes in the US nuclear program before 1942. The exact details of the mistakes aren't important, but suffice it to say that the researchers dangerously underestimated the energy levels involved in nuclear power, and the promptness of the reaction. Chicago Pile-1 was dramatically different and was assembled in a different way, with the fuel inserted into different arrangement abruptly, rather than being assembled piecemeal.

The result was intense radiation in the immediate area of the pile and a great deal more heat than was expected. Before a response could be brought to bear, a radioactive fire had already started not far from downtown Chicago.

Even given this worst-case scenario, the US was not materially harmed, but the nuclear program was effectively shut down for the remainder of the war. And that's going to have some serious effects in the coming years...

I like this one... but I'm not sure that the reaction to an attempt at bomb building being unexpectedly destructive is "This project is not worth pursuing". It does eat up a ton of very expensive and hard to obtain material though, so it will probably delay the invention of the bomb until after the war. That probably means research lulls until cold war tensions heat up again.

Originally Posted by malloyd

Likely not. Despite the American version of the story that avoiding this was what made nuclear bombing necessary, the Japanese had in fact been trying to interest the US in surrender negotiations (via contacts through the Holy See, Switzerland, Portugal and Russia) for months. In January they were insisting on retaining the Home Islands, but by May even that demand had been dropped and they asked only that the Emperor not be tried as a war criminal and allowed to remain as a religious figurehead as a bulwark against Communism. The US refused to consider anything but "unconditional surrender", but you'll note that once they got it the Emperor wasn't deposed, nor for that matter were any of the Home Islands taken away or surrendered to the Communists.

It seems Japan really is the pivot point for this timeline. Perhaps they get a proper surrender. They don't have the memory of the nuclear bombs. Which direction does Japan go?

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by ericthered

I like this one... but I'm not sure that the reaction to an attempt at bomb building being unexpectedly destructive is "This project is not worth pursuing".

"The Doomsday Device is even more destructive than we thought. Better to let our enemies take the risks of developing it." does seem to have a few logic holes.

[cptbutton]

Originally Posted by Prince Charon

Handing them over to the Communists was never in the cards, not with the political environment of America at the time (which is also why anything other than unconditional surrender was politically impossible to offer), and deposing or trying the Emperor was (correctly, as best I can tell) judged as a terrible idea that would turn Japan into America's Northern Ireland, but far worse.

I recall some article about MacArthur which said he refused to arrest Emperor Hirohito unless he got an extra million troops for occupation duty first.