Long-term strategy for the Solar System

[Jürgen Hubert]

The leaders of the Great Powers of Earth aren't stupid - and they have some very smart SAI advisers as well. So they have likely dedicated a lot of resources and computing hours to figuring out the long-term trends that affect the colonization of the solar system - and how to make sure that their own interests are best served.

So, what do they think the solar system will look like in 10, 20, or 50 years? And what plans are they pursuing to shape it to their liking?

Here are some of my thoughts:

- China: They will likely continue to make sure that they remain the dominant power on Mars. However, the upcoming completion of the Olympus beanstalk means that emigrating to Mars will become a lot more affordable even without a government sponsor, resulting in a population boom. China will have to increase its own incentives for loyal Chinese citizens to go there before the non-Chinese population becomes the majority - and start patrolling more and more territory outside of the American colony to remind everyone who is boss around here.

They will also redouble their own efforts to gain better access to He-3, since they can't afford to be boycotted a second time.

- USA: The USA always had a problem with long-term plans throughout the 21st century, and this might continue into the 22nd as well. They will continue to build up their Titan colony, but it's hard to predict what else they will do. They might support pro-independence movements on Mars just to annoy the Chinese - and this might draw the two of them into an armed conflict.

- EU: I think the Venus project is mostly a straw man - something to distract the rest of the world from the real plans of the EU for the solar system. The EU isn't really interested in building up colonies of its own. However, they probably assume that sooner or later many colonies will become independent, and once that happens they want to make sure that these colonies are sympathetic to their values. That's why the EU sponsors all those immigrants on Mars, which otherwise wouldn't make sense - why pay a lot of money so that your best and brightest move to another planet?

One these new nations come into their own, they might even join the EU or something similar - an interplanetary alliance of nations arising from the EU. But even if that happens, those European expatriates are in a perfect position to help shape events in the colonies - and pave the way for the next wave that will arrive once the Olympus Project is complete.

- TSA: Right now, they can't do much except sending lone operatives up there - but they need their own space presence in the long run or they will keep on slipping behind the rest of the world. Their own asteroid mining, their own source of He-3...

Malaysia and Indonesia have good locations for a beanstalk elevator of their own. At the moment, this project would be too expensive for the TSA, both politically and economically. But after the completion of the Olympus beanstalk, the price for such a mega-engineering project will drop...


Your thoughts?

[thtraveller]

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

The leaders of the Great Powers of Earth aren't stupid - and they have some very smart SAI advisers as well.

Seriously I would consider that "because" rather than "and". It's also hard to see what will stop the SAIs, the Eloi and the upgrades from becoming the de-facto leaders, if not actually in name.

So they have likely dedicated a lot of resources and computing hours to figuring out the long-term trends that affect the colonization of the solar system - and how to make sure that their own interests are best served.

With the best and the brightest factioning and splitting off into clades, that will be a tough balancing act.

There might be several best ways that can all be followed by different groups. Of course if any of those ways compete for resources...

So, what do they think the solar system will look like in 10, 20, or 50 years? And what plans are they pursuing to shape it to their liking?

Well there is the degenerate possibility that large numbers will dump the meat and go the computronium route. Even if not quickly the ever increasing numbers of SAIs and very rich Ghosts blur national boundaries significantly.

- China: They will likely continue to make sure that they remain the dominant power on Mars. However, the upcoming completion of the Olympus beanstalk means that emigrating to Mars will become a lot more affordable even without a government sponsor, resulting in a population boom.

Good point. The journey out of Earth's gravity well costs significantly more than the interplanetary journey to Mars.

China will have to increase its own incentives for loyal Chinese citizens to go there before the non-Chinese population becomes the majority - and start patrolling more and more territory outside of the American colony to remind everyone who is boss around here.

- USA: … They might support pro-independence movements on Mars just to annoy the Chinese - and this might draw the two of them into an armed conflict.

Given that most of the Mars citizens are the brightest and best, their home nations may have difficulty getting them to follow parochial interests.

The EU

I can’t help thinking that the interconnectedness of the world of 2100 makes all the fifth wave powers and some fourth wave much closer than individual EU states are now. It’s ripe for big change with this being one possible path.

Malaysia and Indonesia have good locations for a beanstalk elevator of their own. At the moment, this project would be too expensive for the TSA, both politically and economically. But after the completion of the Olympus beanstalk, the price for such a mega-engineering project will drop...

And the threat of building a second beanstalk would get them almost as much leverage as building one.

[Kitsune]

Interesting topic. Here are some of my thoughts about it:

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

The leaders of the Great Powers of Earth aren't stupid - and they have some very smart SAI advisers as well. So they have likely dedicated a lot of resources and computing hours to figuring out the long-term trends that affect the colonization of the solar system - and how to make sure that their own interests are best served.

For a the sake of plausibility it should be kept in mind that things are usually not quite that easy. Politicians may not be stupid and they will have AI advisors, true, but they may be more occupied with winning the next election or handling an inner political crisis than implementing any long-term strategy. The result is that the strategy of the country or power they are ruling can be completely stupid, or even that no recognizable strategy exists in the first place. Single, smart persons may actually notice this, develop a sensible strategy for their nation or power, write a book about what should be done and then have to watch helplessly and in horror how their ideas are completely ignored and everything is going down the drains. Common sense seems to dictate that this should hardly be possible, considering the ressources and experts the rulers of state have access to, but that is how things usually have been in the past. In 2100 it is quite possible that this is one of the things that has not changed.

Originally Posted by Jürgen Hubert

- EU: I think the Venus project is mostly a straw man - something to distract the rest of the world from the real plans of the EU for the solar system. The EU isn't really interested in building up colonies of its own. However, they probably assume that sooner or later many colonies will become independent, and once that happens they want to make sure that these colonies are sympathetic to their values. That's why the EU sponsors all those immigrants on Mars, which otherwise wouldn't make sense - why pay a lot of money so that your best and brightest move to another planet?

One these new nations come into their own, they might even join the EU or something similar - an interplanetary alliance of nations arising from the EU. But even if that happens, those European expatriates are in a perfect position to help shape events in the colonies - and pave the way for the next wave that will arrive once the Olympus Project is complete.

I do not quite agree with this assessment. If the Europeans are not interested in colonies, why are they then interested in influencing them or having them even join the European Union? Besides, the latter would be the best way to become quite unpopular with China and America at the same time - nobody likes it if something you have built up gets snatched away by somebody else. It wouldn't be very smart to alienated those powers, especially over something that Europe isn't interested in in the first place. But it is of course possible that the Europeans are interested in colonies - after all, they have built the hyperexpensive Islandia worldlet - so why not continue to found further ones in that case? How about aerostat habitats on Venus? It is possible that this has already happened, see the thread "The Gardens of Aphrodite". But even if not, why not start with this in 2105? As far as the Eos Initiative is concerned, that seems to make not much sense, even as a strawman. A project that will last for hundreds of years without any noticeable outcome, with everyone knowing that this will be so, is not such a great distraction, isn't it? Perhaps the stupidity of powers I mentioned above is a much better explanation - that does however not mean that there aren't some people who will at least try to scrap the Venus terraforming project, so that something more interesting can be done on Venus.



However, it is true that neither the colony on Mars nor a hypothetical one on Venus are very important in the grander scheme of things. 2,5 million people live on the red planet - that is almost nothing compared to the 11,500 million people on Earth. Nor does Mars, or Venus, or Islandia make any of the powers backing them much more powerful. Or much less powerful. Perhaps in a more distant future Mars and Venus may have hundreds of millions of inhabitants and are Great Powers in their own right, complete with mighty space fleets or something (in which case they are likely to secede, and their mother states still don't gain power and may even find that they have created new rivals) but for the time being the strategic main show is taking place with regards to the situation on Earth.

Which does not mean that space is unimportant. There is one strategic issue in outer space that is extremely important for the situation on the homeworld and that is of course the control of He3. I would suspect that this could be the most important conflict of all and the main actors of this drama are likely to be China and the USA.

Over the course of the 21st century, China has become the world's foremost power but not everything has gone well for the people's republic. Instead of coming to dominate Japan or even only Korea, these two powers have started their own alliance, the PRA. But the real debacle is Indochina. This region should have been destined to become China's frontyard, since its states are teeming with ethnical Chinese who are mostly in charge of the respective economies of Southeastern Asia. Instead, they formed the TSA and became China's most bitter enemy. Imagine what it would mean for the USA if the nations of Middle America would form an alliance against the States! As a result, China is encircled on all sides by nations who are not too friendly to it, or such who are even outright enemies. Another great blow came during the Pacific War, when America started an He3 embargo against the war parties, including China. The meaning of this and the enormous loss of face that resulted for the PRC cannot be underestated. While Beijing might have tried everything to limit the damage - including to play the importance of the matter down as much as it could - it is indeed likely to assume that China will do everything to prevent this from happening again. It is even possible that they want to turn the tables entirely: while no one must be able to start an embargo against China, why should China, as the number one power, not be able to do it to others? America may find that it has awakened a dragon.

This may be the very much the situation: in the first decade of the 22nd century, China starts to develop its own He3 mining operations on Uranus - and possibly on Saturn as well, the planet doesn't belong to America, after all. But on top of it, they start an enormous fleet building program and this may be no empty threat. Assume, for example, that the EU would customary spend 2.5% of its GDP for military purposes, while the USA spends 3.5% and the PRC 4.5%. With China's economy being one and a half times as large as the one of the second largest power, their defense budget would be larger than those of America and Europe together and almost double as large as the US budget alone. Considering that the American Angel class SDVs are extremely expensive, it may come to it that, before the year 2110, an US fleet of around 35 SDVs sees itself confronted with a Chinese fleet of around 120 (less expensive) SDVs. The numerical superiority with regards to SCVs could be similiar. Worse: China would be able to sustain this fleet as much as the US can theirs and, being an dictatorship, might also able to raise military spending as much as America can, so arming the Chinese to death is likely to be impossible.

It is interesting to consider what might happen then. If the Us do not give in, the result might be a veritable "Cold War in Space". It is even possible that something otherwise surprising comes to pass: the US and the TSA might start to develop closer ties, despite their obvious differences in ideology. (After all, in earlier times the US was also part time ally of the Sovietunion under Stalin and long time economic ally of Saudi Arabia). In a conflict against China, these powers may find that they are natural allies.
This situation also contains the recipe for a hot war. Simply assume that on one occasion China tries to assert its dominance over He3 and expects the US to back down - by attempting to implement a short term embargo. But the Americans do not back down and shooting starts, somewhere in the Outer System. The conflict spirals out of control and reaches Mars - while everyone on Earth jumps into foxholes and hopes the worst can still be prevented.

[Malenfant]

I guess it depends on when the Singularity hits ;).

[Jürgen Hubert]

Originally Posted by thtraveller

Seriously I would consider that "because" rather than "and". It's also hard to see what will stop the SAIs, the Eloi and the upgrades from becoming the de-facto leaders, if not actually in name.

The SAIs in the USA and China are very likely programmed to be loyal to their leaders. The SAIs in the European Union already wield quite a lot of behind-the-scenes influence.

Originally Posted by Kitsune

For a the sake of plausibility it should be kept in mind that things are usually not quite that easy. Politicians may not be stupid and they will have AI advisors, true, but they may be more occupied with winning the next election or handling an inner political crisis than implementing any long-term strategy. The result is that the strategy of the country or power they are ruling can be completely stupid, or even that no recognizable strategy exists in the first place. Single, smart persons may actually notice this, develop a sensible strategy for their nation or power, write a book about what should be done and then have to watch helplessly and in horror how their ideas are completely ignored and everything is going down the drains. Common sense seems to dictate that this should hardly be possible, considering the ressources and experts the rulers of state have access to, but that is how things usually have been in the past. In 2100 it is quite possible that this is one of the things that has not changed.

I see this mostly as a problem of the USA (and India, to a lesser degree). China has likely a gerontocracy, with the same old faces running the country for decades - which will encourage long-term political planning. And the EU has that whole cyberdemocracy thing going on - and the SAIs who act as the advisers of these part-time politicians will likely steer them in the direction of long-term plans as well.

I do not quite agree with this assessment. If the Europeans are not interested in colonies, why are they then interested in influencing them or having them even join the European Union?

Ultimately, it's a war for memetic supremacy. The European Union is quite interested in making sure that other nations share their own values - and they likely have figured out that instead of creating their own colonial ventures out of whole cloth, it is far easier to influence the memetic makeup of other colonies by sending their own folks up there.

If they were to create their own official colonies on Mars or anywhere else in the outer solar system, both China and the USA would stop seeing them as partners and start seeing them as rivals - and that's a race that the EU cannot win. But this way they have their own people in key positions in both colonies, and they will be able to influence how the eventual independence plays out. After all, a true independent Mars will only work if both colonies are able to work together. And which group is in position to mediate between the two halves? The Europeans...

EU membership for off-world nations is obviously a very long-term goal - it won't happen until Martian independence is truly well-established and grudgingly accepted by both China and the USA. And even then, it might not happen after all - but at the very least, it might be more sympathetic to Europe than to either of its "mother countries". If those plans work out, that is.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by "Jürgen Hubert

If they were to create their own official colonies on Mars or anywhere else in the outer solar system, both China and the USA would stop seeing them as partners and start seeing them as rivals - and that's a race that the EU cannot win. But this way they have their own people in key positions in both colonies, and they will be able to influence how the eventual independence plays out. After all, a true independent Mars will only work if both colonies are able to work together. And which group is in position to mediate between the two halves? The Europeans...

That is what I would see exactly the other way round. Why should China and America see a European colony project on Venus as a rival and a threat to what they are doing on Mars? It isn't a rival, actually it doesn't affect the red planet at all. On the other hand, any sneaky attempt to gain memetic supremacy on Mars is a direct challenge - and a threat that is likely to be seen as aggression by both China and the USA.

So, you might want to keep that European policy of yours a secret. Which would leave the question who in Europe might be behind it, if it is a secret, it can't be part of the open democratic process, after all. It would boil down to some influential people meeting secretly or something. But the one question still left unanswered is why anyone rich and powerful in Europe should be interested in these underhand influences in Mars in the first place. Colonies are nice and well, they give people a chance of a new start somewhere else and provide societies as a whole with a feeling of progress, so let's start one of our own. But, as said, for the time being, for a long time being, they are not really important for the bulk of humanity.

As I see it, it might be difficult to formulate and implement a grand strategy for Europe - this entity is a lose confederation and it can't be expected to simply say "hop" and everyone jumps. (Not that the USA or China won't have similiar problems but in the end the PRC may have the least diffculties here). A long term idea, many Europeans could identify with, might be to further the idea of an "Earth without borders". There is nothing wrong with trying to further the memetic ideals the European Union has been built upon, but it has to happen slowly and without any underhandedness. A more concrete concept to implement this is to work on the expansion of the European Union by convincing other nations to join in.

The next obvious candidat for this might be Russia. This nation could be considered European itself, but it has always stayed out of the loop, often even being a threat for its western neighbours. While this is not the case anymore, to build a "common European house" is a dream still unrealized in 2100. But it may come finally true in the 2120ts if the EU works on it and Russia agrees.

After that, a really big step could be considered. If the European Union should really mean the idea of "being a template for eventual world government" it might be attempted to bring a union of EU and PRA about, in the time after Russia has joined. Naturally, it cannot be expected that this Alliance will simply join the European Union, there would be need for compromises on the European side as well. It might work in the case that it is possible to convince the PRA to accept the idea that SAIs have the right to be full fledged citizens while the Europeans reduce their level or preservationism - and isn't it only through this way, through compromising, that a global commonwealth could be build eventually? The resulting entity would not be "European" or "Pacific Rim" anymore but an confederation of nations that almost spans the globe. It might be called "International Alliance" (INA) and would be the living proof that a unified world is possible. This could be true by 2150, if things go well.

[Jürgen Hubert]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

That is what I would see exactly the other way round. Why should China and America see a European colony project on Venus as a rival and a threat to what they are doing on Mars? It isn't a rival, actually it doesn't affect the red planet at all. On the other hand, any sneaky attempt to gain memetic supremacy on Mars is a direct challenge - and a threat that is likely to be seen as aggression by both China and the USA.

This assumes that they need to work actively towards Martian independence. But with this plan, they don't actually have to. They have likely figured out that the pressures for an independent Mars will become very strong sooner or later, no matter what the Chinese government does. So all they do now is sending ordinary European citizens up there so that they are in the right positions. These folks aren't told anything like "make sure Martian independence goes our way!" - they just get the kind of support they need to get a prosperous life on Mars.

And thanks to that approach, European expatriates can be found in both colonies, and are thus in a prime position to network and mediate in some pan-Martian crisis (like a struggle for independence). No other group will have as many connections across the whole of Mars - and that can't help but be useful down the road.

Of course, some analysts in both China and the USA will likely suspect what is going on. But will enough people listen to them? After all, that's a threat that will only materialize decades down the road, and most leaders on both sides will be more worried with the military forces of the other colony - why worry about a bunch of European engineers and their families when the Americans/Chinese are a much more visible threat to their own ambitions, both on Mars and beyond? Besides, all those corporations find the expertise of those European immigrants and their skills really useful, and will likely pressure their governments to continue let them in.

The trick with political conspiracies in the Transhuman Space era - as it is the case now - is not to keep them secret. That's almost impossible anyway. No, the trick is to keep a low enough profile so that others worry about larger and more immediate issues.

So, you might want to keep that European policy of yours a secret. Which would leave the question who in Europe might be behind it, if it is a secret, it can't be part of the open democratic process, after all. It would boil down to some influential people meeting secretly or something.

Nah. Just a few published papers in European policy think tanks that suggest long-term strategies for the outer solar system for the next few decades should be sufficient, as long as they are read by the right people (such as those advisory SAIs). Even if someone tries to "expose" all this, the policy guys would just say: "Of course it's in our best interest if we have friends on Mars and elsewhere mediating between us and the locals" and leave it at that. Then the media focuses on more interesting things, such as what kind of stuff those dastardly Infosocialists have stolen lately.

But the one question still left unanswered is why anyone rich and powerful in Europe should be interested in these underhand influences in Mars in the first place.

Ideally, you want all other nations to be friends and allies of your own nation. And the rest of the solar system is one of the prime spots where new nations are likely to appear over the next few decades, starting with Mars.

And what's "underhanded" about it? European intelligence agencies need never try to further the cause of Martian independence - those actually living on Mars will do that all by themselves. But it certainly won't hurt if some of the people writing the Martian Constitution were products of the European education system...

Colonies are nice and well, they give people a chance of a new start somewhere else and provide societies as a whole with a feeling of progress, so let's start one of our own. But, as said, for the time being, for a long time being, they are not really important for the bulk of humanity.

The rest of the solar system is one of the biggest growth areas, and only likely to become more so once the Olympus Project is complete. Humanity will spread further out - but influencing the dynamics in those early stages of space colonization will have huge repercussions down the road, so it makes sense that the right people with the right values are out there.

As I see it, it might be difficult to formulate and implement a grand strategy for Europe - this entity is a lose confederation and it can't be expected to simply say "hop" and everyone jumps. (Not that the USA or China won't have similiar problems but in the end the PRC may have the least diffculties here). A long term idea, many Europeans could identify with, might be to further the idea of an "Earth without borders". There is nothing wrong with trying to further the memetic ideals the European Union has been built upon, but it has to happen slowly and without any underhandedness.

The plan I outlined is slow and only has a minimum of underhandedness.

A more concrete concept to implement this is to work on the expansion of the European Union by convincing other nations to join in.

Ultimately, space will become more and more important as a new home for humanity. So if the EU wants to transcend borders, it will have to make sure that the same is true of space as well. Here, too, those expatriates will be useful - since they are active in both Martian colonies, they are likely to see the border between them more as an annoyance than something good.

After that, a really big step could be considered. If the European Union should really mean the idea of "being a template for eventual world government" it might be attempted to bring a union of EU and PRA about, in the time after Russia has joined. Naturally, it cannot be expected that this Alliance will simply join the European Union, there would be need for compromises on the European side as well. It might work in the case that it is possible to convince the PRA to accept the idea that SAIs have the right to be full fledged citizens while the Europeans reduce their level or preservationism - and isn't it only through this way, through compromising, that a global commonwealth could be build eventually? The resulting entity would not be "European" or "Pacific Rim" anymore but an confederation of nations that almost spans the globe. It might be called "International Alliance" (INA) and would be the living proof that a unified world is possible. This could be true by 2150, if things go well.

Trying to vastly increase the number of member nations like this would upset the delicate balance of the Great Powers of Earth, and cause the other blocks to ally against the EU. The EU will probably have more luck with trying to foster other power blocks with similar values - the South African Coalition is a good example of this.

And Mars might be next.

[rfmcdpei]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

The next obvious candidat for this might be Russia. This nation could be considered European itself, but it has always stayed out of the loop, often even being a threat for its western neighbours. While this is not the case anymore, to build a "common European house" is a dream still unrealized in 2100. But it may come finally true in the 2120ts if the EU works on it and Russia agrees.

Ukraine first, surely? The independent states of North Africa would also be potential candidates alongside Russia, I'd think.

TS has already established that the European Union will admit states located entirely outside of Europe. Central Asia or Iran, perhaps, after the requisite political reforms in those areas?

After that, a really big step could be considered. If the European Union should really mean the idea of "being a template for eventual world government" it might be attempted to bring a union of EU and PRA about, in the time after Russia has joined. Naturally, it cannot be expected that this Alliance will simply join the European Union, there would be need for compromises on the European side as well. It might work in the case that it is possible to convince the PRA to accept the idea that SAIs have the right to be full fledged citizens while the Europeans reduce their level or preservationism - and isn't it only through this way, through compromising, that a global commonwealth could be build eventually? The resulting entity would not be "European" or "Pacific Rim" anymore but an confederation of nations that almost spans the globe. It might be called "International Alliance" (INA) and would be the living proof that a unified world is possible. This could be true by 2150, if things go well.

Some sort of EU/PRA network commonwealth would potentially be quite appealing. The problem with this is the resulting massive imbalance in global geopolitical balances.

As others have pointed out, a particularly massive

[Kitsune]

The problem with this is the resulting massive imbalance in global geopolitical balances.

To worry about this too much does not make sense. Over the course of the 20th century, the US had become a superpower - did they worry about disturbing any balances? During the 21st century, China grew to become the world's most foremost power - but what about the balance? Now, in 2100, India is growing, and who knows, in the 22nd century they may come to be similiarly powerful as China - or may be even more so. Shouldn't one tell them that they please stop to increase the size of their economy so that the "delicate balance of power" isn't disturbed? Please? (And how do you think they would answer to this?)

If people would have thought that way, all of human history would grinded to a halt long ago. Take only technological advancement - any invention made could potentially disturb the balance of power, after all (some actually did), so please could everyone stop with that?


Besides. The question was what the long-term strategy of the European Union might be. What might they aim for during the next fifty years? Russia joining the Union won't happen overnight, that goes even more for a fusion of EU and PRA. Instead we are talking about a long-term goal. Cooperation is slowly increased, politicans and buisiness tycoons meet a bit more often than in the past, treaties and agreements are signed. Both will be slow processes that could eventually culminate in Russia (and the Ukraine, true) joining the EU, perhaps in 15 or 20 years, and possibly in a joining of PRA and EU, in maybe 30 to 50 years.

Will especially the latter cause the EU to be overstretched? Not really. It's a merger of two, not an extension of one, so, if neither the European Union nor the Pacific Rim Alliance is overstretched, there seems to be the definite possibility that a fusion of both is not, either. Or will the new Super-Alliance disturb the "delicate balance of power" that exists on the world in half a century? Who can say? We don't even know wether there will be such a balance in 50 years, wether it will be delicate and how exactly it will look like. Perhaps the founding of a larger Alliance will even restore the balance that might have been lost 15 years before. In any case, if the character of the EU and the PRA should not have changed too much, the resulting, larger Alliance will be democratic and peaceful, so no one has a real reason to be afraid of it. But most of all, when it happens, if it happens, it will be an entirely voluntary process for both, the EU and the PRA, and everyone in the world will have had decades of time to get used to the idea.

Overall, it is a worthy goal for the longer term, on the other side, to do nothing because you worry about possibly disturbing hypothetical balances is not so clever a strategy.

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by thtraveller

(SNIP)

Given that most of the Mars citizens are the brightest and best, their home nations may have difficulty getting them to follow parochial interests.

(SNIP)

Okay, I have to point out something, here. I see this misconception a lot, and I find it rather curious. A friend of mine also felt the same way, and it took a lot of work on the behalf of two of us to get him to realize the flaw in his reasoning.

The people who move to Mars have to be both smart and motivated -- both admirable qualities. However, they won't be the top-tier. One or two steps down, only, but not quite top-notch.

Why? Because the truly top-notch can ask for, and get, the best that Earth has to offer. And, Earth has far more to offer than any other planet.

Mars might be fun to visit, but why would you want to live there permanently when you can get the finest food, the finest drink, the finest mates, the finest intellectual conversation, the finest lifestyle -- at all levels, and in every way -- on Earth? Did the Rockefellers move to Alaska, when they'd made their millions? No. They stayed in the urban northeast United States. Did J.P. Morgan, or Thomas Edison, or Henry Ford, or Albert Einstein move to the wilderness, once they'd achieved phenomenal success? No.

They stayed at the loci of maximum intellectual stimulation. That's where the best and the brightest always stay.

Those who move to Mars, or other planets, will have considerable competence and considerable drive, and that's worthy of respect. However, they'll move to a frontier to carve out a new home for themselves, because they don't have what it takes to reach the top tier of their places of origin.

Only after Mars stops being a frontier, and starts to offer the advantages of high civilization -- art, music, culture, education, intellectual and emotional stimulation of all sorts -- will it become attractive to the "best and brightest."

I sometimes wonder where this notion comes from, that the "best and the brightest" are the ones who leave civilization, rather than the contrarians, the frustrated and the disgruntled? Is it common in other places than the United States? Is it common amongst groups other than gamers?

As for me, were I to achieve top-tier social regard and financial independence, I would never head to the wilderness to stay for more than a month or so. But, I'd sure as heck have apartments in Manhattan, London, Ingolstadt (great town!), Sydney, Rio, and the Italian Riviera. I'd bet that, while most might pick different locations, the theme would be the same.

I see no reason to think the people of the 22nd Century would behave any differently. Why spend all your time trying to get hydroponic beans to grow on Mars, when you can eat filet mignon in Paris, any time you want? Why try to maintain one's academic standing on Mars, with a nearly 30-minute communication lag-time, and few peers with which to discuss one's ideas, real-time, over a latte? Why watch a virtual reality program that came out a month ago, on Earth, when you can create the next big thing while living in Beverly Hills or Bollywood? Why design chimera for High Arcadia, when you can design the next human upgrade at Pittsburgh's Carnegie-Mellon University -- an hour's flight from Manhattan, and less than six hours from the heart of Europe?

And, speaking of Europe, I think we may start to see what lies at the heart of their strategy for the 22nd Century (to the extent they have one). Earth is, and shall remain, the heart and (more importantly) the mind of human civilization. If the memes in that mind are European...