04-04-2017, 10:41 AM | #21 | |
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Portland, Oregon
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
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Another problem is that computer's can't calculate honor or religion or revenge or any of the things humans really fight over. A computer might work for an eighteenth century war where the rival states really were fighting over calculable things.
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04-04-2017, 10:47 AM | #22 |
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
Believing that honor or religion are purely random and have zero pattern is a rather odd stance to take.
In genre for 60s style science fiction humans-are-awesome regardless of logic, but otherwise kind of weird, in my opinion.
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04-04-2017, 10:58 AM | #23 | |
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Location: Portland, Oregon
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
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For instance suppose the human knows he is being analyzed by a computer. That can make him mad enough to do something illogical just to prove the computer wrong. In any event, a computer is always limited itself by the fact that a human built it. Therefore it will only make such calculations as it is programmed to make. Computers are not really brains. They are only smarter then humans in the sense that a bulldozer is "stronger." But any human can wreck a bulldozer by throwing goo in the engine.
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04-04-2017, 11:15 AM | #24 |
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
All that assumes the A.I's aren't "really" sapient which is somewhat begging the question. We also obey our programming far more than most of us are willing to admit. Evolutionarilly created, nurtured upbringing, and basic self interest fit with probably over 99% of our decisions.
It's hard to imagine getting groups of humans to violate all those to confuse a logical intelligent tactically skilled A.I. Not impossible, but certainly unlikely in the short term let alone long term protracted war. Your idea sounds more like loads of unspoken disadvantages and low IQ just with high specific skills.
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04-04-2017, 11:24 AM | #25 | |
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Location: Portland, Oregon
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
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Now if a real AI was created by the CIA it would by definition have the prejudices an intelligence analyst would have. As it would be isolated from contact with other sources by secrecy to an extent that a human analyst would not, it would not have a correcting mechanism for it's prejudices. It would for instance certainly not be plugged into the internet and would only get Sigint fed to it by human couriers carrying predigested data lest it be discovered. At best it would be like any human raised in a cloistered setting and the fact that it is a bigger calculating machine only enables it to make bigger blunders. For instance would a computer be able to predict that an English public school boy(all of whom as everyone knows behave so similarly that they can run an Empire on autopilot) would be a Communist spy any better then a man could? The point is not that such a thing would not be a very useful tool. The point is that it would be very easy to mistake it as a substitute for all the other tools in the CIA's toolbox.
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"The navy could probably win a war without coffee but would prefer not to try"-Samuel Eliot Morrison Last edited by jason taylor; 04-04-2017 at 01:08 PM. |
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04-04-2017, 01:22 PM | #26 |
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
Either this A.I. has the intelligence of a human ie. no extra disadvantages, and a high Tactics/Strategy skills or it doesn't.
That's all I mean, and am not sure what specifically you're arguing against.
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04-04-2017, 02:09 PM | #27 | |
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Location: Portland, Oregon
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
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Which humans are we talking about? There are plenty of humans and the A.I. will have the intelligence and disadvantages of the humans who work it and the humans who create it added to it's calculating potential. Humans who are supposedly the most intelligent people on Earth often make exceptional errors for varirous reasons such as using corrupted data or overestimating their own potential(for instance making statements on trades outside their own without allowing for error). The argument is against the overestimation of the ability of such a machine. Not least against the argument that logic and calculation is a sufficient tool for intelligence analysis. Just to start with, logic will be what the user considers logical, or in other words an end worth the means he is proposing. Many of the greatest intelligence errors come from assuming a rival has the same priority in objectives. An AI will have no more ability to access those then a human spymaster.
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"The navy could probably win a war without coffee but would prefer not to try"-Samuel Eliot Morrison Last edited by jason taylor; 04-04-2017 at 02:33 PM. |
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04-04-2017, 05:08 PM | #28 |
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Canada
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
AI only understand as much as the information given to them; human brains have a lot of wetware devoted to filtering out "irrelevant" information and any data that goes through humans is going to get forced through that filter.
There was an experiment with training an AI to make unbiased recommendations on prison sentence lengths, but it had a big problem in that the AI was trained on a database of actual assigned prison sentences - with all the bias that the actual human judges had when assigning them. They got an AI that was very good at producing the same prison sentences, with all the same biases. Google's running into this problem right now with their panic-mode on Youtube. They're two weeks into an advertiser boycott over having their advertisements run next to "objectionable" videos. So Google has assigned one of their big AIs to the task of trying to sort out "objectionable" videos - but the only way for the AI to know what's objectionable is based on humans pushing the Report button. So they now have a NEW problem of people trolling the AI by mass reporting videos on subjects they just don't like, or people they just want to troll. This can be (eventually) improved by having humans sort through the "objectionable" reports and tossing out ones that are deemed to be invalid, but that a) takes time and humans that Google doesn't have right now and b) relies on the team of humans having consistent definitions of "objectionable".
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04-04-2017, 05:58 PM | #29 | |
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
Not "humans", just one human: Dr. Carl Sheffield.
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04-04-2017, 06:22 PM | #30 |
Join Date: Aug 2005
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Re: Weird idea for an unusual Reign of Steel scenario...
All the worse as the computer will have the prejudices of one man and unless Sheffield is an expert analyst as well as designer, it will in affect make the computer be a man working outside his trade.
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