Deindustrialized World3 22nd Century

[whswhs]

Originally Posted by maximara

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says "recoverable coal reserves would last about 470 years, and recoverable reserves at producing mines would last about 25 years".

When did the EIA say that? Did the Club of Rome know about those estimates when they created their simulation models?

[Willy]

Originally Posted by maximara

Oh there have been people banestormed from much higher TLs: Niall of Fordham (Banestorm 117) comes from 1993 (Revised as TL8 in 2000). They just have to keep hidden less the Ministry of Serendipity comes a calling and wipes their memories.

If something on par with the original Banestorm happened and a few TL8 towns or worse military bases from Merlin-1 showed up Yrth would be in a world of hurt.

You can count on that! Even a larger village of our earth would be enough to turn Yrth into a turmoil. As long as they aren´t overrun in a few days and can build roots, this newcomers would be instant major power brokers. And the church, mages and most nobles would get a fit. If the enter a far off region like the orclands or the northern wilds they could even build up their power base before seeking contact.

I´m aware that speels exist to locate newcomers, and the ministery is using them to lacate banetorms and necomers. Even crosstriangulation between mages should be possible. But if the newcomers are a thousand miles or more far away behing emeny lines, it would take time before the forces of the inquisition could arrive. Arratere was just a few hundret miles away isolated on isles and in uncontested waters, still it took time for the megalans to locate them and arrive with enough forces to lend aid and be strong enough to quell any resistance.

Also some folks more seem to have escaped the ministery and the other agencies huntuing newcomers. There is a lot of songs and other cultural leakage that belongs to a modern western civilisation. and the knowledge of some underground engineer is way above what a medival philosoph of nature could have. There is also a hint in Yrth fighting stiles about a person who advised a noble and created the fighting art.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

It's pretty good, although I wound up liking the Emberverse series, better.

Here's the information about the series. SNIP[/I].

Thank you very much for the info.

[maximara]

Originally Posted by Willy

You can count on that! Even a larger village of our earth would be enough to turn Yrth into a turmoil. As long as they aren´t overrun in a few days and can build roots, this newcomers would be instant major power brokers. And the church, mages and most nobles would get a fit. If the enter a far off region like the orclands or the northern wilds they could even build up their power base before seeking contact.

I´m aware that speels exist to locate newcomers, and the ministery is using them to lacate banetorms and necomers. Even crosstriangulation between mages should be possible. But if the newcomers are a thousand miles or more far away behing emeny lines, it would take time before the forces of the inquisition could arrive. Arratere was just a few hundret miles away isolated on isles and in uncontested waters, still it took time for the megalans to locate them and arrive with enough forces to lend aid and be strong enough to quell any resistance.

Also some folks more seem to have escaped the ministery and the other agencies huntuing newcomers. There is a lot of songs and other cultural leakage that belongs to a modern western civilisation. and the knowledge of some underground engineer is way above what a medival philosoph of nature could have. There is also a hint in Yrth fighting stiles about a person who advised a noble and created the fighting art.

We know that Ytarria is ~3,000 miles West to East and looks to be 1,500 miles from North to South. That is only 4,500,000 miles^2.

If we assume a similar Pangea (estimated at 57,830,000 miles^2) to our Earth there is a lot of land on Yrth that isn't accounted for (~53,330,000 miles^2). Heck, we are told "Although other continents exist on Yrth ocean travel is difficult." (Banestorm p 4)

My personal head canon is that the continent Caravan to Ein Arris takes place on is on Yrth. But even that isn't enough to meet the ~53,330,000 miles^2 'debt'.

For all we know these other continents could have higher tech than Ytarria. That or something like a space ship from one of the many higher tech magical world crash on the would really ruin Ytarria's day.

[JulianLW]

Alright you primitive screwheads, listen up. You see this? This is my boomstick.

[maximara]

Originally Posted by whswhs

When did the EIA say that? Did the Club of Rome know about those estimates when they created their simulation models?

The page at the link I provided states "EIA's estimates for the amount of coal reserves as of January 1, 2021, by type of reserve are:"

"Limits to Growth" came out in 1972 and likely had the same underestimate problems that existed in Cleveland's Cleveland Museum of Natural History exhibit which had projections regarding us running out of resources. But even that exhibit had coal lasting until ~2050.

But there have been updates by the City of Rome: Beyond the Limits (1992), The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (2004), and 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (2012)

[maximara]

Originally Posted by JulianLW

Alright you primitive screwheads, listen up. You see this? This is my boomstick.

More like. "Lad we learned how to make a new weapon called a tank."
"Gunpower? Ha ha. Thing shoots fireballs."
"Power source? You would be surprised what a fire elemental will do for you if you let them burn large armies."
"Mana? Ah that is what the Mana Pool 2 powerstone is for. We finally learned how to intentionally make the things about a year ago."

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by maximara

"Limits to Growth" came out in 1972 and likely had the same underestimate problems that existed in Cleveland's Cleveland Museum of Natural History exhibit which had projections regarding us running out of resources. But even that exhibit had coal lasting until ~2050.

"Underestimate" may not be quite the right term. Most of these actually come from taking "reserves" too literally. What is reported as "reserves" are known sources that could be profitably exploited. They don't account for sources that aren't known yet (which could after all be anything, including zero if you really have found all possible ones), and they don't take into consideration changes in what counts as exploitable - either through improvements to recovery technology, or, and this one is particularly important in the fossil fuel case, increase in price because the easy sources have been used up.

You know the rock layers coal occurs in are present, well not everywhere, but in a lot more places that you mine it. The reason you can't build coal mines almost everywhere like you can say drill a water well, has more to do with the cost of extracting it from under half a mile of rock than the fact it isn't there at all.

[whswhs]

Projections of resource exhaustion go back a long way. In the 19th century, W.S. Jevons, one of the founders of mathematical economics, wrote The Coal Question, which predicted the collapse of the British economy when British coal was mined out.

[KarlKost]

Originally Posted by whswhs

Projections of resource exhaustion go back a long way. In the 19th century, W.S. Jevons, one of the founders of mathematical economics, wrote The Coal Question, which predicted the collapse of the British economy when British coal was mined out.

Malthusians are always predicting the end of the world. Reality is always proving them wrong over and over again. Innovation and tech is always surpassing the impending doom. And populational increase has been a blessing to all of us, the more people there is the more thinking brains humanity has, and more problem solvers improving the lives of all.

In fact, I believe the collapse and calamity will come from catastrophic populational decline. Such as for example the greatest Malthusian experiment of history, the case of China.

In the end, all that moronic nonsense is just the perfect excuse for tyrannical totalitarians to sell themselves as the solution. They spread fear, and people in fear becomes much more willing to sell away their freedoms in exchange of (false) promisses of safety coming from a strong man, a "savior". That's what all tyrants do since ever, from Julius Cesar to Adolf Hitler and Stalin. The elites of the Club of Rome are no different, they dont care about the world - if they did they would constantly fly on their private jets. Or rather, they know that their BS propaganda is just that, BS - all that Malthusian nonsense is just the fearmongering propaganda that they use to indoctrinate the masses into acepting totalitarian control. And given the 2 last years, I'd say they're slowly getting there.

[maximara]

Originally Posted by KarlKost

Malthusians are always predicting the end of the world. Reality is always proving them wrong over and over again. Innovation and tech is always surpassing the impending doom. And populational increase has been a blessing to all of us, the more people there is the more thinking brains humanity has, and more problem solvers improving the lives of all.

In fact, I believe the collapse and calamity will come from catastrophic populational decline. Such as for example the greatest Malthusian experiment of history, the case of China.

In the end, all that moronic nonsense is just the perfect excuse for tyrannical totalitarians to sell themselves as the solution. They spread fear, and people in fear becomes much more willing to sell away their freedoms in exchange of (false) promisses of safety coming from a strong man, a "savior". That's what all tyrants do since ever, from Julius Cesar to Adolf Hitler and Stalin. The elites of the Club of Rome are no different, they dont care about the world - if they did they would constantly fly on their private jets. Or rather, they know that their BS propaganda is just that, BS - all that Malthusian nonsense is just the fearmongering propaganda that they use to indoctrinate the masses into acepting totalitarian control. And given the 2 last years, I'd say they're slowly getting there.

To be fair to Julius Caesar his promises weren't "false" as the Republic was so broken by that point it was Empire or bust (after a crap load of more civil wars).

Stalin didn't need to "promise" anything - thanks to Lenin the Communists were already in power and most of his more brutal policies were taken from Trotsky's playbook. If anything if Trotsky had come to power (big if) it likely would have been worse for everybody.

Hitler came to power through a bunch of backroom deals by people who thought they could control him. He then proceeded to get President Hindenburg at age 86 to set up things to where the democratic government would end. Something Hindenburg gave the go ahead for on his literal deathbed.