GT:ISW -- How much of the Terrans' victory over the Ziru Sirka is owed to the Vargr?

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

I beg to differ amigo. It was within only 20-30 years of first Vilani contact with the Terrans that the Vargr first began raiding the Ziru Sirka. Essentially simultaneous in the grand timeline (see below).

Here's what I found over at wiki.travellerrpg.com/ "Vargr migrations around the Windhorn began around -2400, at the beginning of the Interstellar Wars with Terra, and the Vilani had to maintain forces on their coreward border to repel attacks by the aliens they called the urbarrani ("pack-predator barbarians"). Vargr actions undoubtedly hastened the collapse of authority in the Ziru Sirka, although the extent of this is probably overstated by Vargr historians."

Hence the core of my inquiry -- the 1st Imperium had to fight two barbarian menaces simultaneously on opposite ends of their territory. This two-front war exacerbated all of the problems the Grand Empire of the Stars was having already and helped bring it down. What I'm wondering is if the Vargr were seen as a bigger threat than the Terrans until it was too late (8th+ ISW).

I had posted my thread hoping to see if it would be possible to have a "Terrans Triumphant" outcome in the ISWs without the Canonical "Vargr Menace". I'm thinking not so much.

Hero of Canton

Certainly it's possible. The Vilani never saw the Terrans as more then a local threat until they were. And in any case there are several examples of small polities conquering incredible amounts of area by mastery of a few decisive techniques.

The Vargr would have first began raiding the Vilani when they first made contact with the Vilani. It was a thing. They only had an abundance of soft targets and an immunity from retaliation because the Vilani were distracted.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

I want to believe that the Terran Confederation DID NOT consciously use bioweapons on the Vilani during the ISWs and that the obvious effort the Terran Confederation put into fighting outbreaks of "Terran Plagues" on Vilani worlds was a good-faith humanitarian effort and not a cynical smokescreen.

Hero of Canton

Gengineered bioweapons are almost never used deliberately by a major power and it is not out of the goodness of their hearts. It is because bioweapons are self-reproducing, and should they really, really want a WMD for some reason they have quicker contrivances which have already been used quite effectively thank you very much. If the Terrans really want to kill a lot of Vilani civilians the easiest way to do it is simply to put a lot of nukes aboard a starship and drop them. The ghoulish stuff States have in mad scientist labs when they are not a bluff are usually simply research into finding defenses. The ones who would want to actually use that sort of stuff are simple terrorists without a state of their own to wreck. Such examples of biowarfare in history were done with ordinary pestilence and used such means as tossing rotting cadavers over a city wall or whatever. Gengineered bioweapons are a new development which few states have a motive to use. Admittedly a State can get in the hands of some pretty wacko people but the Terrans are reasonably sane folk motivated by good old fashioned fear and ambition.

The Terrans would hardly want to risk making planets they intend to conquer uninhabitable as that would prevent their own expansionism. They would not want to risk alienating future citizens and Nusku showed that wise governance made it indeed capable to get Vilani to transfer loyalty.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Anthony

Even if you're in position to infect planetary populations it isn't very effective against fleets in the short term, though it can cause economic havoc in the medium to long term.

That is another motive for not deliberately infecting Vilani. During cease-fires the Vilani were their trading partners. Making to much trouble for merchant ships is to much of a bother. Especially as the competition of Terran traders is, from the point of view of the cumbersome Vilani transport system equiv to a narcotic that can be withdrawn at will leaving the local economy to vegetate. It probably is literal narcotics at times though the Terran government and the more scrupulous Terran cartels will probably at least officially forbid that. But in any event introduction of high demand goods and services and fashionable new social customs and a flexible economic system would create a natural state of dependency.

In other words there is no need for biowarfare. The Terrans can get all the advantages of it from the state to state point of view of degrading the opponent's collective security and morale reasonably well without attempting to deliberately release a plague on the population. Not to mention this has so many practical disadvantages(whether or not you go with the Galahad school or the Curtis LeMay school of military ethics is irrelevant for this point) that it is simply not worth it.

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

...In other words there is no need for biowarfare. The Terrans can get all the advantages of it from the state to state point of view of degrading the opponent's collective security and morale reasonably well without attempting to deliberately release a plague on the population. Not to mention this has so many practical disadvantages(whether or not you go with the Galahad school or the Curtis LeMay school of military ethics is irrelevant for this point) that it is simply not worth it.

Good points! PLUS actually using bio-weapons run the risk of focusing the FULL attention of the Ziru Sirka on the Terrans. IMHO if that ever happened before ISW#8 we Terrans would have been toast.


Hero of Canton

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

Good points! PLUS actually using bio-weapons run the risk of focusing the FULL attention of the Ziru Sirka on the Terrans. IMHO if that ever happened before ISW#8 we Terran's would have been toast.


Hero of Canton

Thank you...

I don't know if you are a Harrington fan, but remember the A Rising Thunder where the Manticoreans dealt a body blow to the Solarians in the first round simply by ordering all their freighters home? The Terrans will develop every chance to do this repeatedly.

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

Thank you...

I don't know if you are a Harrington fan, but remember the A Rising Thunder where the Manticoreans dealt a body blow to the Solarians in the first round simply by ordering all their freighters home? The Terrans will develop every chance to do this repeatedly.

Thanks, I am a HH fan but have not gotten that far in the saga. "Against All Odds" is as far as I've gotten so far. Would the withdrawal of Terran trade be capable of having any effect on the ZS or are you talking about the Rim Province only?

Hero of Canton

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

Thanks, I am a HH fan but have not gotten that far in the saga. "Against All Odds" is as far as I've gotten so far. Would the withdrawal of Terran trade be capable of having any effect on the ZS or are you talking about the Rim Province only?

Hero of Canton

It would grow more as the Terran trade grew so it depends on the era. In the "default present" the Terrans are coming more and more to dominate the Rim but anything deeper is more for adventurous explorers.

So the answer really is, "depends on what time".

[SteveS]

Originally Posted by SteveS

. . . Every northern winter on Earth brings new natural biological weapons, soon carried away with traders. . . . came back from shore leave with influenza, . . .

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

I want to believe that the Terran Confederation DID NOT consciously use bioweapons on the Vilani during the ISWs and that the obvious effort the Terran Confederation put into fighting outbreaks of "Terran Plagues" on Vilani worlds was a good-faith humanitarian effort and not a cynical smokescreen.

Note the words I bolded where I quoted myself: I was specifically referring to naturally occurring diseases, and cited influenza as an example. There are all sorts of natural diseases on Earth that the Ancients presumably did not transplant when they collected their early human sample populations, and they would not be good for any other humans.

Terrans would presumably distribute vaccines in peacetime, but not so much in times of conflict. Simply denying the annual version of the flu vaccine would be devastating.

And don't dismiss even just influenza. The 1918 epidemic killed up to 5% in some populations, and in populations that had never encountered influenza, every annual flu could be that bad. Five percent fatality could be devastating in highly specialized societies.

[jason taylor]

One thing to remember is that most Vilani are not interested in the Ziru Sirka, they are interested in their pariochial interests. Just like Duke Leto, and Baron Harkononen, and the Fremen(and the respective tribes thereof), and the Smugglers(and the respective tribes thereof) and so on are not interested in the Imperium but in themselves.

Terran ability to convince large numbers of Vilani to defect can only be explained by indifference and pariochial interest.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by SteveS

Terrans would presumably distribute vaccines in peacetime, but not so much in times of conflict. Simply denying the annual version of the flu vaccine would be devastating.

Bear in mind that once it's out there, you'll get variants showing up off Earth, though Vilani space presumably lacks nonhuman hosts so you won't get rapid flu evolution in chickens or swine or whatever.

Originally Posted by SteveS

And don't dismiss even just influenza. The 1918 epidemic killed up to 5% in some populations, and in populations that had never encountered influenza, every annual flu could be that bad. Five percent fatality could be devastating in highly specialized societies.

Virgin field pandemics could have occurred during the first war, but probably not much after that.