'Lottery' odds resolution

[ericthered]

The classical method of resolving this is colored marbles and a bag. Other uniform clearly marked objects will work as well: risk armies, differently colored dice (of the same size), and so forth (I don't know if poker chips work or not: I don't own any). I know this as "casting lots", but I don't know if it is the same practice as mentioned in ancient texts (like the bible)

I have an app on my phone that casts lots for one set of markings.I don't know of a good site or app for casting lots with more than one set of markings. It should be nearly trivial to code: the User Interface is the hardest part.

[thrash]

It seems to me that your trouble might stem from conflating possible definitions of "points" in your problem statement. Your mechanic implicitly defines "points" as whatever produces the correct odds of success, but then you refer to them as if they are GURPS-style linear units of experience. This may not produce the probability distribution you want.

Perhaps start from a normal distribution? since repeated trials tend to converge in that direction. Take the ratio of "points" on each side to the total as the probability outcome, read off the corresponding target roll on a chart of your preferred normally distributed die mechanic, and roll to determine success.

Then work backwards to what "points" mean in this context, and what having "no points" in an ability means. I suspect that "points" will wind up being logarithmic in hours of experience (etc.) rather than linear; this at least provides one "point" for zero ability as a basis.


Would it be helpful to consider instead a "combat results table" mechanism, similar to an old school cardboard chit wargame? Calculate an "odds ratio" of the relevant scores, reduce it to one of the standard columns on the chart (e.g., 10:4 becomes 2:1), roll a die to get the row, and read the result off the chart. Your results might be on a complete success-partial success-partial failure-complete failure scale, rather than destroyed-damaged-retreat-no effect. There is also a fairly extensive literature (Jim Dunnigan's Wargames Handbook, for example) that you could tap for ideas on how to assign scores and set things up.

[ak_aramis]

Originally Posted by ericthered

The classical method of resolving this is colored marbles and a bag. Other uniform clearly marked objects will work as well: risk armies, differently colored dice (of the same size), and so forth (I don't know if poker chips work or not: I don't own any). I know this as "casting lots", but I don't know if it is the same practice as mentioned in ancient texts (like the bible)

I have an app on my phone that casts lots for one set of markings.I don't know of a good site or app for casting lots with more than one set of markings. It should be nearly trivial to code: the User Interface is the hardest part.

poker chips of the same design set and mass should work just fine.

The biblical-era descriptions of casting lots vary.
Some were drawing stones blindly from an amphora
Some were drawing strips of parchement or papyrus from a chalice

There are a few attestations to the following process - it was used in Greece, and in the English Colonies in North America.
The stones were generally, all similar sized, pulled from a river. A specific number would be marked. The first X people would put in the marked stones; the rest would drop in a stone of choice from the pile. All the while, the stones are being stirred. Then, each person comes and draws a stone, showing it to be clear of marks. Those who draw the marked are pulled aside. This was used for jury selection in New England according to a couple of papers I read in the 90's.

The other method well attested, the Papyrus Slip method, has been documented in use in the Coptic Church for over 1600 years.
votes are written on identical slips of parchment, papyrus, or paper, then collected in a large chalice, counted and tallied. If there are more than 3 names, repeat until only three names remain. Then those three are placed into a chalice, from which is drawn the name of the final elected patriarch. Note that the collection of votes in a chalice is common across the Catholic and Orthodox churches; so uniform that it may well predate the church. The drawing of the final vs voting on the final varies widely in modern use.

[ak_aramis]

Ruminating on the process idea...

A standard inexpensive pokerchip set (<$10) is usually about 80-100 chips, in 3 colors.

Putting in difficulty red, and ability white, and some fixed number of blue then drawing 2...
WW: Exceptional success
WB: Simple success
WR: Marginal success
BR: recoverable failure
BB: outright failure
RR: critical failure

The blues represent a tangible inerrant resistance to success within the engine.

The awkward part is resetting the pool.

A dice mechanic... Skill + (difficulty or opposition skill), round up to next multiple of 2, working for skills up to 6. Active gets (1+Die-skill) to (Die), opposition 1 to (skill or difficulty). if neither hits, situation is a draw; if a ties is impossible, higher skill wins on neutral. (noting that neutral only happens when the sum is uneven already.)

EG: Sam, skill 3 swordsman, vs Jo, skill 4 swordswoman. sum is 7. This gets d8. Sam, as active, gets (8+1-3) to 8, so 6-8. Jo gets 1-4. 5 is no decision or Jo wins, depending upon context.

If one prefers roll low simply put active at the low end and reactive/resistive at the high.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by ak_aramis

The awkward part is resetting the pool.

Yes, though as long as you're continuing to do the same thing you can make do without resetting much.

[RogerBW]

Originally Posted by ak_aramis

The awkward part is resetting the pool.

I think I'd want a large drawstring bag which can be laid out flat - then you can quickly make piles of the relevant numbers of chips, then pull the string, shake the bag, and draw.

[ak_aramis]

Originally Posted by RogerBW

I think I'd want a large drawstring bag which can be laid out flat - then you can quickly make piles of the relevant numbers of chips, then pull the string, shake the bag, and draw.

Still, hassle factor.