Sectors of an Ultra-Tech/Bio-Tech economy

[Agemegos]

High technology is not just a matter of using newly-discovered scientific and engineering principles. The higher a tech level goes the more sophisticated its products become, which means that each product has many sub-assemblies, many, many components, scads of materials etc.. These are all produced by different special refining, fabrication, and assembly processes. And the range of different products also rises dramatically with tech level. All of which means that as tech level rises the number of different refining, fabrication, and assembly operations, special skills and tools, machines, factory layouts etc. required rises sharply. Now, it is well-known that each worker, tool, machine etc. is most efficient and productive when he concentrates on or it is specialised for a single operation. Generalists and general-purpose manufactories are dramatically more expensive that hyperspecialists working in assembly lines or distributed manufacturing enterprises.

It follows that an ultra-tech economy can only produce ultra-tech items economically if it has enough workers and capital employed that each worker and machine can be fully specialised to the degree that the sophisticated products require and fully employed in that speciality. Integrated over the range of special materials, fabrications, sub-assemblies, and products, this means that there is a minimum economic scale for each tech level, which rises with tech level.

It is a feature of my SF setting (conservative hard SF with radical touches and a minimum of superscience) that the development level of different colonies depends largely on the extent to which they are able to integrate their economies and achieve the scale that will let producers specialise. Depending on population, population density, physical and institutional infrastructure, peace, appropriate regulation, and government honesty, the development level of a world ranges from TL1 to TL10, and the average income with it, also the real exchange rate.

Almost all the worlds participate in the interstellar economy to some extent, but the ill-developed ones are only able to do so by exporting comparatively crude products, which compete with locally-made equivalents on highly-developed world by being sold cheaply. TL2-development economies export agricultural products (these are higher-value than you might think, because of legacy biotech) and even minerals. High-development economies import copper and plastics, not because they can't make them locally, but because of Ricardo's Law. They concentrate on making, and therefore export, the fabrications, components, subassemblies, and assemblies that require vast fab plants and hyperspecialised workers.

A further feature of the setting is that there is a small group of worlds called "the Suite" that specialise their individual economies and integrate them with interstellar transport, allowing a scale of production larger than any one world economy could achieve, and consequently the specialisation to make products of a sophistication greater than that which any merely planetary economy could achieve. Each planetary economy supports in effect one sector of the integrated economy of the Suite, and the Empire is the transport sector that permits this integration. The worlds of the Suite are consequently rich.

Certain worlds develop into the Suite or decline out of it from time to time. The Suite is generally growing (and slowly becoming able to sell products that were unknown even on Old Earth!). At 541 PDT (AD 2926) it consisted of Tau Ceti, Xin Tian Di, Paráiso, Aeneas, Esbouvier, Todos Santos, Jungfrau, New Earth, Vanaheim, and the Empire. At 603 PDT (AD 2988) it consists of Tau Ceti, Xin Tian Di, Paráiso, Aeneas, Esbouvier, Todos Santos, Jungfrau, New Earth, Eden II, Vanaheim, and the Empire. The Suite has a scale of economic integration about one order of magnitude larger than the population of a TL10 planet, and each planet in the Suite supports one sector consisting of about 10% of a ~TL11 economy.

The question arises from time to time of which colony specialises in what. The Empire specialises in starships, naturally. It has been established that Tau Ceti makes the best beam weapons (probably optical phased array emitters rather than actual lasers) and holographic equipment. Todos Santos has been noted for psychology, pedagogy, brain-hacking, mind-emulations, mind uploads and downloads, and computer software. Esbouvier has been noted as the place for artificial species, parahumans, and the like.

Before I commit myself any further, I'd like to sort out a reasonable division of an Ultra-Tech economy into about ten sectors each making up about 5–15% of economic activity. Would anyone like to suggest a likely division or a few likely economic specialisations for worlds?

[Fish]

I'm not entirely sure where you mean to begin. Let me just toss this out there for your perusal. Some time ago, I created a 3-dice-randomizer chart for race/ethnicity, education, wealth and occupation, based on the August 2007 Bureau of Labor Statistics data for the United States. I made it, because I thought it would be useful for randomizing NPCs. These are more or less accurate reflections of a TL8 economy in modern times (although to fit into the probability curve of a 3-dice roll, I had to adjust the relative percentages up or down by a point or two).

OCCUPATION.  Roll 3d to randomly determine occupation, or select an area of
occupation below.  This random list may be used instead of the Education
and Wealth rolls; they are not designed to interact.  The distribution of
professions is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August
2007.

	3	0.5%	Natural resources and mining (roll again)
	4	1.4%	Military
	5	2.8%	Information (roll again)
	6	4.6%	Wholesale trade (roll again on Manufacturing list)
	7	6.9%	Construction (roll again)
	8	9.7%	Manufacturing (roll again)
	9	11.6%	Retail trade (roll again)
	10	12.5%	Professional (roll again)
	11	12.5%	Education and health (roll again)
	12	11.6%	Local government (roll again)
	13	9.7%	Leisure and hospitality (roll again)
	14	6.9%	Financial (roll again)
	15	4.6%	Transportation (roll again)
	16	2.8%	State government (roll again)
	17	1.4%	Federal government (roll again)
	18	0.5%	Utilities

Disregard the instructions to roll again; I had been working on a series of additional random charts intended to break down the sectors into specific occupations, but I never finished.

Is this a good starting point for you?

[nick012000]

Seriously?

Von Neumman Robots
Everybody Else

[Agemegos]

Originally Posted by nick012000

Seriously?

Von Neumman Robots
Everybody Else

Everyone else is a Neumann robot.

[nick012000]

Originally Posted by Brett

Everyone else is a Neumann robot.

By "Von Neumann Robot" I meant "Size Modifier 8+ Factory Ships". I've statted a TL 10 SM 8 ship that can reproduce every 4 months and has 150K/hour production capacity, right through from mining to finished goods. Give them a few decades to reproduce, and your economy will be "Von Neumann Robots and Everybody Else", because the Von Neumanns will be making everything that matters for Everyone Else (and will probably make up most of the population anyway: after a decade of solid reproduction, there will be over a trillion of them).

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by nick012000

By "Von Neumann Robot" I meant "Size Modifier 8+ Factory Ships". I've statted a TL 10 SM 8 ship that can reproduce every 4 months and has 150K/hour production capacity, right through from mining to finished goods. Give them a few decades to reproduce, and your economy will be "Von Neumann Robots and Everybody Else", because the Von Neumanns will be making everything that matters for Everyone Else (and will probably make up most of the population anyway: after a decade of solid reproduction, there will be over a trillion of them).

Just the fact that it's in UT or Starships doesn't make it realistic or even possible.

The factories in UT might be okay for small party adventuring, but they make absolutely zero sense for societies. The rate of return per hour is 1%, but there are no economies of scale.

The most efficient and practical Von Neuman Robots in the setting of Flat Black are biological, such as humans. Turns out that evolution is pretty good at making self-replicating machines and there are significant constraints involved in making them perform several orders of magnitude better.

[Agemegos]

Originally Posted by nick012000

By "Von Neumann Robot" I meant "Size Modifier 8+ Factory Ships".

That is not what John von Neumann meant.

I've statted a TL 10 SM 8 ship that can reproduce every 4 months and has 150K/hour production capacity, right through from mining to finished goods.

Maybe you have, but I don't believe that such a thing is actually possible, and I'm certainly not admitting them into my campaign setting.

[Captain Joy]

Originally Posted by Brett

...I'd like to sort our a reasonable division of an Ultra-Tech economy into about ten sectors each making up about 5–15% of economic activity.

Off the top of my head:
• fuel production
• energy weapons
• bio/medical tech
• nanotech
• spacecraft
• communication/media/sensor/security tech
• computer tech
• power distribution tech
• personal vehicles
• construction

[whswhs]

Originally Posted by Captain Joy

Off the top of my head:
• fuel production
• energy weapons
• bio/medical tech
• nanotech
• spacecraft
• communication/media/sensor/security tech
• computer tech
• power distribution tech
• personal vehicles
• construction

Judging by conditions in the United States, if you view health care as an industrial sector rather than a public service, it could easily become quite large. I'm going to suggest one-third of the economy, assuming that things have advanced to the point of massive life extension . . . not immortality or fundamental genetic fixes, but just ensuring that the normal person lives to a hundred or so.

Intangible industries are also going to be important. How big an entertainment, recreation, and tourism sector will there be? What about the "finance, insurance, and real estate" sector?

Going by the "rise of the creative class" thesis, the creation of new content seems likely to be economically important. So would there perhaps be a basic research sector absorbing maybe 5-10% of economic activity?

What about secondary scientific activity? Already there are important abstracting journals and research services. Imagine an economic situation where (a) science has grown even larger and more difficult to keep track of, (b) productive research often comes about because some enterpreneurial scientist sees a payoff in taking a result from field A and examining it in light of theoretical models from field B, and (c) such entrepreneurs of science make up a substantial economic sector in their own right.

Then there is Vernor Vinge's bit where a starship travels from one solar system to another carrying a precious cargo of—long random numbers usable for encryption! It's about as high a value-to-weight ratio as you're likely to get.

Bill Stoddard

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by whswhs

Judging by conditions in the United States, if you view health care as an industrial sector rather than a public service, it could easily become quite large. I'm going to suggest one-third of the economy, assuming that things have advanced to the point of massive life extension . . . not immortality or fundamental genetic fixes, but just ensuring that the normal person lives to a hundred or so.

On the Suite worlds and those with a similar level of medical technology; I think that the average person manages to live to a 130 or more. We've met a 195-year-old NPC in one game and the retirement age in the Empire is a 110 years old, at which point a person is still about equivalent to a well-preserved 65-year-old in our world.

One Suite world enforces (by cultural pressure, not law) suicide after the first century of life, ensuring that there are no old and unproductive people. Other colonies have their own ways of dealing with the problem, which can include just not dealing with it and accepting these demographics.

Note, though, that the marginal value of unskilled human labour is not high at TL10 (and not all that high at TL7-9). Even semi-skilled human labour is not very valuable at TL10. This means that most TL9 worlds (except those with low populations but a burgeoning economy) will have had to come to terms with the fact that most people may not be able to sustain an acceptable (to them, at least) standard of living with their own labour.

Originally Posted by whswhs

Intangible industries are also going to be important. How big an entertainment, recreation, and tourism sector will there be? What about the "finance, insurance, and real estate" sector?

Entertainment and recreation is huge in the Suite. Interstellar tourism is not a large industry, largely due to the long travel times which confine it to those independently wealthy enough to forgo whatever dole or salary they receive to take months or years off. Such tourism mostly benefits the Empire, in light of its monopoly on space travel.

Finance and insurance, on an interstellar scale, I get the impression is pretty robust. There are many opportunities for fast growth for the canny investor who takes it upon himself to help a colony just shedding a repressive form of government modernise a bit (by contrast, those who bet that a change of government will mean more security for investors often turn out wrong, broke or even dead).

Real estate in the smallest sense varies by colony. Often enough the ownership of individuals will be restricted or not present at all, given that capital will usually be much more important than labour in the economy and the governments will be have been responsible for the welfare of the majority of people for centuries. Some colonies have a large class of people without possessions that are functionally recipients of state doles and nothing else (even called 'Recipients' on at least one colony). In order to finance this, some colonies own all the land and receive rent (also a consequence of some colonies that began as commercial enterprises and are governed by the remains of the corporation which bought the rights to development of the planet).

On a macroscale, the Imperial monopoly on space travel and exploration means that new habitable colonies or planets ready for terraforming are a resource that only the Empire can find, sell and utilise. They are prevented by law (at least in later periods) from colonising them on their own, but they can and do sell them to raise the operational funds needed to keep the Empire running.

Originally Posted by whswhs

Going by the "rise of the creative class" thesis, the creation of new content seems likely to be economically important. So would there perhaps be a basic research sector absorbing maybe 5-10% of economic activity?

From what Brett has said in the past, the Suite is primarily distinguished from other TL10 colonies by the fact that Suite worlds are advanced enough to make new technological advances. Selling the licences for those is one of their major revenue streams.

Creative jobs are likely to be a major factor in any TL9+ economy and the largest factor in TL10 ones. Any economy where the basic needs are met will be hungry for new entertainment, arts or other things to keep the masses happy. But any creative people on lower TL colonies have massive competition in that there is a constant stream of information for anyone asking for it. Not only do licensing costs for Suite tech and Suite entertainment finance the massive economies of those colonies, but the Empire makes sure that anything that is no longer restricted by IP laws remains useful.

The Empire freely dissemnates blueprints and supporting documentation of any* technology where the patent has expired, which owing to the long time TL10 has been maintained, will include nearly any item up to mature TL10. This means that TL10 factories are relatively easy to build anywhere that can afford them and can mass produce almost anything relatively cheaply.

But since raw materials are plentiful and low-tech manufactured goods only have any value at all beacuse of Ricardo's law, most low-tech colonies will not be able to afford much in the way of higher tech goods, services or even technological assistance to bootstrap themselves up to a higher standard. Of course, the Empire has people who help with that, but given the size of the known space and the shortage of people motivated and trustworthy enough to be in Imperial Service, most colonies that don't have at least moderately sensible and moral government (rarer than you'd think) still languish at a standard far below TL10.

*Except weapons of mass destruction, which in this setting includes FTL drives.

Originally Posted by whswhs

What about secondary scientific activity? Already there are important abstracting journals and research services. Imagine an economic situation where (a) science has grown even larger and more difficult to keep track of, (b) productive research often comes about because some enterpreneurial scientist sees a payoff in taking a result from field A and examining it in light of theoretical models from field B, and (c) such entrepreneurs of science make up a substantial economic sector in their own right.

This will indeed be huge in the Suite. In less advanced colonies, trawling through the immense databanks made available by the Empire for blueprints of tech that could be useful at the colony's level of development is likely to be a profitable task.

Originally Posted by whswhs

Then there is Vernor Vinge's bit where a starship travels from one solar system to another carrying a precious cargo of—long random numbers usable for encryption! It's about as high a value-to-weight ratio as you're likely to get.

Trade in information, blueprints and all sorts of new ideas is robust, of course. The Suite mostly comes up with them and the Empire transports them.