What if half of everyone dissappeared? Building/Gaming a Rapture Scenario

[PTTG]

One thing Khorboth pointed out is that everywhere would be experiencing emergency services breakdown at once. I wonder if this might lead to a phase change scenario in some places, resulting in lawlessness lasting much longer than the initial few hours or days. A small rural town, for instance, relies in part on the law and order of cities. If a gang happens to survive the initial incident somewhat better than average, and the local police do a little worse than average, and the gang leaders realize that the problem is global and the sheriffs wouldn't have the manpower even if they knew about the situation...

The gang leaders would also have to believe that the rest of the nation isn't likely to restore the old order -- a plausible belief depending on what they think caused the disaster.

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There are ways we could change this disaster, too. What if everyone with an IQ over 100 was vanished? What if everyone right-handed? What if it is only every doctor and medical professional, or everyone involved in law enforcement? I'm not sure myself, but definitely things to think about.

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by PTTG

What if everyone with an IQ over 100 was vanished? What if everyone right-handed? What if it is only ever doctor and medical professional, or everyone involved in law enforcement?

What if it was everyone who wasn't in the first Avengers movie?

[evileeyore]

Originally Posted by malloyd

There are very few professions with 44 or fewer people in them....

Buggy whip manufacturing will take a severe hit.

Originally Posted by Daigoro

What if it was everyone who wasn't in the first Avengers movie?

ZING!

[khorboth]

Originally Posted by malloyd

Actually it's rather large. Add up a bunch of distributions and they cluster more or and more toward the center. This is why 6d damage rolls are much more likely to be close to the average than say 2d ones.

For a normal distribution (the limit on a poisson distribution like this), 1 out of 1000 samples fall more than about 3.3 standard deviations from the mean. Since the standard deviation is sqrt(n/4), the mean is n/2, and for 25-75% is +/- n/4 we can compute that we can expect 1 out of 1000 samples to fall outside the 25-75% range if the size of the samples is 4 (3.3)^2, or about 44 people. There are very few professions with 44 or fewer people in them....

You are correct, and this is what I get for EVER trusting my gut when it comes to probability and not double-checking.

While it's technically a binomial rather than poisson distribution at the base because it's discrete rather than continuous, that's pure pedantry (yet, the pedant in me can't resist). The limit is still normal. The result is numerically identical.

So, for local areas, cities with populations under 1000, there may be some key professions missing. People would be called in from neighboring areas by either company administration or by economic forces, but it wouldn't be immediate. The local Alco or Kroger may not have anybody left, and the gas may be delayed. All major cities would probably be fine, though.

At the same time, people in small towns are generally more independent and likely to be able to fend for themselves, make do, have stockpiles, and help their neighbors.

[(E)]

There is always the probability that the event coincides with another disaster somewhere. Earthquake, a nasty winter, monsoon season, financial hiccup etc. While probably not enough to cause the end of the world it may cause major effects to a nation or two.

[tanksoldier]

. So, for local areas, cities with populations under 1000, there may be some key professions missing.

Another factor is how wide spread is the disappearance?

Infinity War’s die off covered the entire universe... so Earth just might have been the place where the statistics clumped the doctor disappearances or something.

[PTTG]

Originally Posted by tanksoldier

Another factor is how wide spread is the disappearance?

Infinity War’s die off covered the entire universe... so Earth just might have been the place where the statistics clumped the doctor disappearances or something.

Earth's "die rolls" aren't affected by anything else happening in the universe, there's just more tries happening elsewhere.

What does everyone think would be a reasonable point in time to say that everything is back to normal? The rational end-point of the campaign? Of course, that varies with your definition of normal, but let's say it's reached a point where it's fairly stable and unlikely to be interesting from here-on out.

[Mister Ed]

I'd think it possible that in SOME locations, there would be large repercussions from certain specific people vanishing. What happens if some despot or warlord disappears? Could very well trigger a power struggle, if they hadn't planned out a succession (or maybe even if they had, especially if their chosen successor also went poof), that could have wider ramifications in their corner of the world.

[MWnRNC]

Originally Posted by PTTG

What does everyone think would be a reasonable point in time to say that everything is back to normal? The rational end-point of the campaign? Of course, that varies with your definition of normal, but let's say it's reached a point where it's fairly stable and unlikely to be interesting from here-on out.

If The Leftovers is anything to go by, things would never return to normal. That was only 2% of the world's population and, while the world swiftly returned to ordinary function, even three years later there was still speculation as to the cause of the event and cults centered around the collective loss and pain it inspired. I suppose how it plays out will depend on if the event is ever satisfactorily explained or if the people are just gone.

[dataweaver]

Originally Posted by PTTG

There are ways we could change this disaster, too. What if everyone with an IQ over 100 was vanished? What if everyone right-handed? What if it is only every doctor and medical professional, or everyone involved in law enforcement? I'm not sure myself, but definitely things to think about.

What if it's sex-based, and you're left with a planet with nothing but men, or nothing but women? In the former case, the human race will be extinct within a century; in the latter case, there's a small chance of the race surviving, assuming sperm banks don't suddenly lose their stock.